The US debt bomb: tick, tock ...

I wrote the following for a local newspaper…

For those that don’t know, Greece has recently been pressured by the other 16 nations with whom it shares the Euro to control its federal spending habits. Greece has a debt well over 50 per cent of its GDP and the Euro nations are concerned that investors are going to lose faith in Greece’s debt and stop purchasing Greek bonds.

What good is giving someone a loan if it is only backed by other loans?

Aside from the US dollar, the Euro is considered by some the most important currency in the world. Luckily for those who share it, Greece has a GDP smaller than Ontario so its affect on the Euro is limited. If Greece were to default it would be devastating to the Euro but at least it would have 16 other nations, including the economic powerhouse that is Germany, to support it.

The United States of America, on the other hand, has no one to support it. The US is also drowning in a pool of debt. To make things worse, the US buys more than it spends. In January alone, the US bought $4.1 billion more than it sold – and that’s just with Canada.

That’s great for us, but maybe not for long.

The US, quite frankly, is a ticking time bomb. The debt bomb may not go off this year, it may not go off this decade or it may just be a dud. Chances are though, it is only a matter of time before investors, primarily China, say enough is enough and refuse to buy anymore US debt.

When this happens, the US dollar is going to plummet relative to other currencies, including the loonie. That is going to leave Canada in a very dangerous position.

The US’s money is going to be worth less and it will take more of it to buy Canadian goods. This wouldn’t be a big deal if it were Zimbabwe we were talking about, but this is the United States. This is the country that buys three-quarters of everything we sell and suddenly they won’t be able to afford it – or at least not as much of it.

Canadian jobs will be lost, businesses will close and recession will be upon us.

There isn’t much that can be done to prevent it, either.

First and foremost, fiscal responsibility must be addressed in the US, but unfortunately, the US’s track record is bleak and their partisan political ideologies make agreeing on a strategic plan a problem.

Second, Canada needs to diversify its trade – quickly. Lesser developed nations are growing rapidly and Canada needs to take advantage by negotiating agreements for them to buy our goods. We’ve got plenty of desirable things to sell here in Canada and they may just be our saving grace.

Third, Canada needs to depreciate the dollar so that our goods are cheaper to other countries, and it’s going to be difficult because downward pressure is already on the Euro, the greenback and even the pound sterling.

This is made even more complex due to increasing demand for oil that is developing as countries exit the recession. As the price of crude rises, so does our oil-soaked currency.

Another thing Canada can do is follow India’s lead and buy a pile of gold. Because gold is priced in US dollars, when the value of the greenback declines it takes more of them to buy gold than it did before, meaning the price of gold goes up. Although it won’t save any Canadian jobs, it is an ideal hedge against the US dollar and at least the government could use the profits as stimulus.

In a global economy, exports to another country are an investment and, just like any stock portfolio, you don’t want to put too many of your eggs in the same basket. That is a mistake that Canada has been making for too long.

Unfortunately, the US basket is doomed to drop.

[Via http://financegrain.wordpress.com]

Oil Shortage, Price Spikes Ahead: Gov't Scientist

A North Sea oil rig in stormy waters. Pic by Terry Cavner

I’ve harped on about peak oil here before on countless occasions, so I won’t rehash all the arguments about inability of market forces to provide a self-correcting mechanism to supply shortages etc.

But it’s good to note that more and more people seem to be becoming aware that we are in deep shit when it comes to oil reserves. First it was just the doom-mongers, then it was the head of commodities at Merril Lynch, now it’s former government chief scientist Sir David King.

As the Telegraph reports, King has helpfully pointed out to the tin-eared, leaden-booted twats who make policy in the UK that the world’s oil reserves have been exaggerated by the International Energy Agency (IEA) by up to a third and that shortages and price spikes are just around the corner.

The IEA functions through fees that are paid into it by member companies and has to keep its clients happy,” he said. “We’re not operating under that basis. This is objective analysis. We’re not sitting on any oil fields. It’s critically important that reserves have been overstated, and if you take this into account, we’re talking supply not meeting demand in 2014-2015.”

Sir David said he was “very concerned” that Western governments were not taking the concept of “peak oil” – where demand outstrips production – seriously enough, while China is throwing all its efforts into grabbing as many energy resources as possible.

Yes. The credit crunch is going to look like a walk in the park. Bear in mind that 2014 is just 48 months away.  Within the next decade we’re going to have to adapt to some pretty significant changes in lifestyle, whether we like it or not, I’d say. Read more at the Oil Drum.

[Via http://jamblichus.wordpress.com]

Deanne Goes to LA Part 2

On our way home finally and spoke to a couple who were on their way to Sydney. They were from Seattle and this is their first trip to Australia – great incentive at the moment as the dollar is holding up well.  They commented that their market is still terrible.  Tax rebates have helped the economy $8,000 for 1st homebuyers,  $6,500 for 2nd+. Around Seattle employment growth in the technology industry helped with the market and they do see a few signs of recovery, but the tell tale signs will be in May when the government tax incentives expire.

From what I have read and heard, 2010 seems to be the “Year of Recovery” for the real estate industry in America. Some industry facts of interest…

Characteristics of homes purchased

The median price of homes purchased in 2009 was

• $210,000 in the Northeast
• $158,000 in the Midwest
• $175,000 in the South, and
• $240,000 in the West

The typical home purchased was 1,800 sq ft in size and was built in 1991.

When considering the purchase of a home, commuting costs were considered important by 78% of buyers.

Characteristics of Home Buyers

The 2008 median household income of buyers was $73,100.  The median income was $61,600 among first homebuyers and $88,100 among repeat buyers.

The typical 1st homebuyer was 30 years old, while the typical repeat buyer was 48 years old.  47% of recent homebuyers were 1st homebuyers.

The Home Search Process

9 out of 10 homebuyers used the internet to search for homes

Real estate agents were viewed as a very useful information source by 81% of buyers who used an agent while searching for a home.

The typical homebuyer searched for 12 weeks and viewed 12 homes.

Home Buying and Real Estate Professionals

77% of buyers purchased their home through a real estate agent or broker

10% of buyers purchased a home in foreclosure (up from 3% in 2008).

 

Nearly Home

Survived the 15 hour plane flight home – there was a big sign as we got out of duty free stating that Border Security was being filmed. We did not make a cameo appearance thank goodness!

How lucky are we living in this country. We all whinge and whine about our government, and the state of the economy etc but after our first visit to the States, we have so much to appreciate what we have here…

Real estate in America is a mixed bag and their degree of challenges vary from state to state, but they are looking at signs of recovery.  I did hear that property management is nearly non-existent and people have been warned not to buy investment property if you do not live in the area as a lot of properties get trashed and have high rental arrears.  I would like to know more about this, and am looking to stay in contact with the people I met at the Convention and see if I can get a better insight into what happens with property management in America.

Although I am slightly disappointed not to have learnt any new technologies or real estate practices in many respects that is a positive thing.  I am now even more aware of how lucky First National members are – the tools that are available to us through the network are literally the best in the world.

Even though we are on opposite sides of the world, real estate services have the same fundamentals. How can we help our clients with their biggest transaction – how to assist them from moving from point a to point b. We become part of their lives so we need to concentrate on making their move a positive experience. We need to solve their housing needs. The Americans and Australians may have access to slightly different tools and have slight different methods to help facilitate this process but the person to person contact is the most important and needs not to be different from country to country – a ‘client for life’ is what we agents need to focus on.

I really appreciate the opportunity given to me by First National to be part of the Prudential Conference; it is something I will remember for years to come.

I will be using the next week or so to decipher notes, read and sort the newspapers and real estate magazines I collected, start putting into place my blog, become more involved in social media in a business sense, send a hello by email to the people I collected business cards from at the conference and analyse different ways we can make our client experience with our company more positive. The next thing for me to look forward to is the upcoming Property Management Conference in Sydney at the end of the month and of course our own National Convention in Alice Springs in May…bring them on!

[Via http://burnierealestateblog.com.au]

Psalm 2010

A fellow patriot posted this on one of the Facebook pages we administer and we received permission to pass it along. Enjoy!

Psalm 2010

PSALM 2010

Obama is the shepherd I did not want.

He leadeth me beside the still factories.

He restoreth my faith in the Republican party.

He guideth me in the path of unemployment for his party’s sake.

Yea, though I walk through the valley of the bread line,

I shall fear no hunger, for his bailouts are with me.

He has anointed my income with taxes,

My expenses runneth over.

Surely, poverty and hard living will follow me all the days of my life,

And I will live in a mortgaged home forever.

I am glad I am American,

I am glad that I am free.

But I wish I was a dog …..

And Obama was a tree.

[Via http://americayouaskedforit.wordpress.com]

UK must invest its way out of recession

By Michael Burke on Comment is Free

Britain’s deepest recession since the second world war has produced a highly distorted economy. So it is perhaps inevitable that there has been an extremely distorted debate about the how to deal with the consequences of it. Or at least one of the consequences, since the entire debate is focused on just one symptom of the crisis – the public sector deficit.

The economic distortion arises from the fact that the recession has been an investment-led slump. The British economy has contracted by £80bn and the majority of that has been a decline in investment, down £46bn. Individuals’ incomes and their spending patterns have been badly hit, but the 3.6% fall in consumption is completely overshadowed by the 19.3% fall in investment. Unless that lost investment is restored there will be a permanent lowering of the economy’s growth rate and a permanent loss to competitiveness.

The distortion to the economic debate is the fallacy that the deficit is not related to the decline in activity; that it is somehow a consequence of Gordon Brown’s reckless spending, or even a collective punishment for profligacy. Nothing could be further from the truth. Without a recession, a continued steady growth of taxation revenues on their long-run trend would have produced tax receipts this year £114bn higher than the Treasury currently expects – of a total current deficit of £128bn. Just asplunging investment is the driver of the recession, so falling taxes are responsible for the widening deficit. An economic policy aimed at boosting investment would not only revive the economy, it would also help to close the deficit.

Read the full article here…

[Via http://thefriendlylefty.wordpress.com]

Influencers Hidden Secrets

 

The circle of influencers and their success by manipulation is getting old.  Reality is not even real anymore.  You have reality TV hoes and camcorder freaks, by staying in front of a camera for publicity.  There is not too much a person will not do in Hollywood, but it gets deeper.

 

People think real gangsters are a bunch of fly dressing showboats; nothing is further from the truth.  Companies like All-Good Entertainment, Clear Channel Communications and Live Nation, as well as Microsoft and Goggle are influencers.

 

Entertainment especially the record industry tends to get young kids to mold into stars.  They make them into antisocial figures and screw people up.  I mean take Michael Jackson and Lil Wayne both were normal looking people, and then they went crazy as one turned white and the other turned into a walking billboard to include facial paintings.  They made mega star status in return for self destruction.  And will be good for nothing once there careers ended, because a fast food restaurant would mess with them.  So knowing there limited abilities they keep people out of the game?  No it is not them but the freak creators Dr. Frankenstein. 

 

Then as a result they create demands for services.  People are buying tattoos like madness, because Hollywood condoned it and promoted it.  Meanwhile these kids think they are cool because they are getting paid, tattoos and all to include pants falling off their behinds, something symbolic of the prison institutionalized mentality.

 

The bottom line is this it does not always require talents to be successful in the corrupt Gay Mobbed up Hollywood; you just have to welling to fuck yourself up and by a pig and whore.  Hollywood is a bunch of slaves working for publicity and attention meaning fame.  Sure they are millionaires but the costs of living is outrageous for them to include stratospherically high security costs and if you do not pay for the protection the system does you like Lil Wayne and Michael Jackson and those people who you did not hire uses their influence to put you in jail or destroy your reputation or even put you to sleep.

 

Bottom line:  In Hollywood you pay to play, and have to surrender the wealth or it is taken from you.  It is the ones behind the scenes getting paid, these people we see often are victims of the system that recruited them before they were mature enough to make wise business decisions and they seem to always be trying to keep up and make the next hit record.  The case of Childhood stars!

[Via http://frankpaulgambino.wordpress.com]

Billionaire Invests In Custom Vitamins: How To Join This Ideal Wealth Business Opportunity Of A Lifetime

The new Trump Network marketing company, formerly known as Ideal Health is becoming one of the most talked about products and opportunities ever. The company offers nutritional supplements and is promising to make MLM history and finally bring the long deserved recognition to the network marketing industry. You can either become a customer, a home based business with the network opportunity or both!

The previous company is a 12 year old company that has been recently purchased and partnered with the celebrity himself. The previous network marketing has been an innovator in the vitamin and supplement industry by offering customized vitamins. Each custom vitamin is created just for you based on a simple, yet complete in-home urinalysis test. The custom vitamins can be found at the Ideal Health online store as…. Custom Essentials.

Ordering Trump network vitamins are simple and easy. First, you will purchase a test. This test is created by you taking a simple, in-home urinalysis test. The test is then sent by Fed Ex to the lab and is analyzed by the scientists there to determine the custom vitamin formula for you. It’s really remarkable a great way to obtain optimum health. Over the counter medications are formulated for the masses, while Customized Vitamins are unique just for you!

Now you’re probably thinking that custom vitamins must cost a fortune. At one time this was a service just for the very few elite individuals, hence the celebrity. However, until now you can get network vitamins, a custom vitamin for about $2 dollars a day! That’s a great value when you think about a convenient store beverage, bottled water or cup of coffee costs the same or more.

Contact Dr. Mac’s Apprentice by filing out the short form at:

www.IdealWealthAcademy.com

[Via http://drmacsapprentice.wordpress.com]

What Are They All Talking About?

Dear Reader,

Former President Bill Clinton says, “… it strengthens our country and our economy.”

Tax Expert Sandy Botkin, says, “… it results in tax savings of $3,000 to $9,000 dollars per year.”

Entrepreneur and Author Robert T. Kiyosaki, says, “… it gives people the opportunity to acquire great wealth.”

Author and Motivational Speaker Brian Tracy, says, “… it will be one of the most respected business methods in the world.”

What are they all talking about?

Network Marketing

Network Marketing is a business that has exploded over the past few years. It has provided hope, fed families, restored faith, and leveled the playing field in our difficult economy.

• It does not require large start-up capital
• It can provide a higher income than working the average job
• It allows you to BE YOUR OWN BOSS (How cool is that?)

To be successful, all you need are the skills to build the business and a mentoring relationship to support you, and take every step of the journey with you, as you build the life that most only dream about.

There are two kinds of people in the world.  Those who own businesses and make the most money, and those who work for them.

?

Jasmeen Blocker

Mentoring for Free

http://jblocker.mentoringforfree.com

Free E-Book at http://jblocker.successin10steps.com

[Via http://the5thstep.wordpress.com]

Spooks do IT better than the Government

Is there any IT project they can manage properly? The SCOPE secret communications project, run by the Cabinet Office, has wasted tens of millions. Meanwhile the spooks have been running a little side-project of their own

“We are doing really quite well on this more modest CLiC programme, which is not being run out of the Cabinet Office, it is being run out of SIS and GCHQ” said the head of MI6

“It is regrettable that this same practical and incremental approach was not adopted in the planning of the SCOPE programme” says the parliamentary oversight committee

‘Practical and incremental approach’ – build it in quick manageable pieces, proving and adapting as you go. That’s how today’s leading software companies do it. Our Government is stuck in the last century with the likes of Microsoft and IBM.

Spooks scramble to replace failed secret messaging system – The Register.

[Via http://effortlesscomputing.co.uk]

‘EMERGENCE!’ March 24, 2010 Benton Park Cafe St. Louis

Every 3 months (which began in December), the Poor Souls Society will put on…

‘EMERGENCE!’.

‘EMERGENCE!’ will hopefully come to represent a place for local artist to present their best in order to show their audience their art and ‘emerge’, so to speak!

On March 24, 2010, from 7PM to 9PM we will premier 3 types of the Arts: Visual, Spoken Performance and Musical Performance.

The night begins, at the Benton Park Cafe, with

Jim Trotter, Jr.

, a not so easy to describe visual artist whose style is so diverse, you won’t know where to begin. Well, we determined that the best place to begin (for us) would be having him showcase his work and wares at ‘EMERGENCE!’ for you all to see the painter, photographer, sculptor and then some.

Next, we will enjoy a veritable smorgasbord Spoken Word and dramatic prose readings… put on by several local poetic phenoms:

The Unflappable Teya King

“For those of you who have ever wondered about what exactly goes on in Ms. King’s frighteningly unique (or, plain frightening) brain…here’s your chance to hear a sample of her works.”

http://poorsoulssociety.wordpress.com/emergence/b-teya-king/

The Incomparable Evan ‘Copasetic Soul’ Hillard:

“He is a ball of blazin’ poetic energy who delivers classic literature channeling it back to it’s common folk roots.”

http://poorsoulssociety.wordpress.com/emergence/e-copasetic-soul-evan-hilliard/

The Indomitable Kissa Price:

“WARNING! If you have problems facing the truth, as she knows it… do not proceed! I dare you to listen to just one… go ahead, see what happens!”

http://poorsoulssociety.wordpress.com/emergence/c-kissa-price/

Lastly (although not least), there will be a live musical performance… itching for you to hear his unique brand and sound!

The one! The only! Perry Woods:

“Come see Perry Woods perform to catch his intuitive covers, creative mix-ins, and of course, the original work of the Perry Woods Experience.”

http://poorsoulssociety.wordpress.com/emergence/d-perry-woods/

The entire evening is free (of charge) and if you come early (say 6:30PM) you will get to eat uninterrupted from the delicious menu of the unique gourmet flavor of the Benton Park Cafe, where owner Jessica Lenzen has poured her blood, sweat and soul into the quality (not literally the food, cause that would not be all that sanitary) of this 1st Class breathe of fresh air! ;-P

“Restaurant critics, neighborhood regulars, and first time visitors always agree about Benton Park Cafe Coffee Bar: the atmosphere is great, the food is superb and the service is outstanding. The restaurant offers a casual atmosphere that is perfect for dining with friends, co-workers, and family members…”

RANDOM NOTES AND THOUGHTS (for those interested in how ‘EMERGENCE!’ came about and was conspired in my head):

My interest in doing this is not monetary, but for the purposes of bringing the art community in Saint Louis together. I run a nonprofit consulting firm that has taken this on as a project and we just want to see more cooperation and professionalism in our local art community. So we have set out to lead by example and model what we think can accomplished.

I have, for years, watched and met so many local, talented artist over the last 3 decades, that I thought if St. Louisians had a regular opportunity to come to one spot to enjoy the arts, that they would then better support them. I also believe that trolling or scouting for talent in St. Louis is like trying to hit a moving target, so I dreamed of having a centralized location for local and out of town talent scouts to pool from. I have become a poet over the years and have dabbled in Spoken Word as well, so I feel the most connected to the art community.

The event’s name is, ‘EMERGENCE!’ and will take place at the Benton Park Cafe at 1900 Arsenal on the corner of Arsenal and Lemp (directly across from Gus’ Pretzels). The evening will start off with Jim Trotter, Jr. and his works. After the initial intro and Jim’s reveal/presentation we will move into the Spoken Word, poetry and recited prose phase where, ‘Copasetic Soul’ (Evan Hilliard), Teya King, Kissa Price and others TBA will perform. After that we are having a live musician, Perry Woods to carry us through the night’s end (from 8:15PM to 9:00PM).

This ‘Emergence” event will repeat every 3 months with either all different artist and art kinds or if we carry over an artist, it will be due to demand. Here’s our Blogsite for your viewing pleasure, so you can see all our efforts and other groups that we work alongside of:

Poor Souls on Meetup.com

My company (Apotheosis Consulting, Inc) is a nonprofit consulting firm and we are doing this simply to

preserve our local art community.

I envision that this could be the ‘come up’ for a lot of our local artists to get the recognition they have long

deserved.

[Via http://poorsoulssociety.wordpress.com]

Angola news update, March 14th

ECONOMY

Angola’s inflation slowed to 13.66 percent year-on-year in February from 13.83 percent in January, despite a continued rise in food prices, the National Statistics Institute (INE) said (Reuters).

OIL

Angola was China’s top supplier of oil in January, overtaking Saudi Arabia at a time when Chinese oil companies are seeking to consolidate Angolan offshore positions (Macauhub).

BUSINESS

Angola’s Unitel is in the race for a slice of up to 75 percent in Zamtel of Zambia (Reuters).

Danish engineering group FLSmidth has won a five-year contract worth 154 million euros ($209 million) to operate and maintain a cement plant in Angola (Reuters).

Australian mining company Lonrho Mining plans between May and June of this year to order a unit for separation of aggregates by density for its diamond concession in Lulo, Angola (Macauhub).

Portuguese construction company Teixeira Duarte is to build the new National Assembly building in Angola, a project estimated to cost 185 million euros (Macauhub).

TOURISM

Portuguese group Ibersol has requested authorisation from the Angolan authorities to set up Ibersol Angola (Macauhub).

[Via http://atlantico-weekly.com]

13 March 2010: PM

Olivia is here! Note: Chicago Midway Airport was relatively uncrowded; little if any lines at the counters and almost no trouble getting through security.

Posts

Education You can’t make this up:

Like most colleges, my college uses an automatic plagiarism checker for all assignments. When I see an assignment, it comes with a report from Turnitin.com, which gives me a percentage of non-original content. Per the sales-team-I-mean-administration, anything below 25% is acceptable, anything above warrants a second look. If I suspect a student of plagiarizing, I am to forward the matter to an office that deals directly with this.

What’s the problem, you ask?

Let me tell you a little bit about Frank the Fuckhead. He has turned in three assignments. Each had a originality score between 25% and 45%. Each time, I found that he had copied large chunks of information from the Internet. The first time, I gave him an F and let him resubmit. He resubmitted the exact. same. thing. I turned him over to the office meant to deal with the matter. They, in turn, admonished me for not being “student centered.”

This is not as far fetched as it sounds.

Animal Camouflage via Conservation Report

The latest.

My all time favorite.

Statistics and science Perhaps the headline is sensationalistic but the article is interesting reading. Here is a bit of it:

Statistical significance is a phrase that every science graduate student learns, but few comprehend. While its origins stretch back at least to the 19th century, the modern notion was pioneered by the mathematician Ronald A. Fisher in the 1920s. His original interest was agriculture. He sought a test of whether variation in crop yields was due to some specific intervention (say, fertilizer) or merely reflected random factors beyond experimental control.

Fisher first assumed that fertilizer caused no difference — the “no effect” or “null” hypothesis. He then calculated a number called the P value, the probability that an observed yield in a fertilized field would occur if fertilizer had no real effect. If P is less than .05 — meaning the chance of a fluke is less than 5 percent — the result should be declared “statistically significant,” Fisher arbitrarily declared, and the no effect hypothesis should be rejected, supposedly confirming that fertilizer works.

Fisher’s P value eventually became the ultimate arbiter of credibility for science results of all sorts — whether testing the health effects of pollutants, the curative powers of new drugs or the effect of genes on behavior. In various forms, testing for statistical significance pervades most of scientific and medical research to this day.

But in fact, there’s no logical basis for using a P value from a single study to draw any conclusion. If the chance of a fluke is less than 5 percent, two possible conclusions remain: There is a real effect, or the result is an improbable fluke. Fisher’s method offers no way to know which is which. On the other hand, if a study finds no statistically significant effect, that doesn’t prove anything, either. Perhaps the effect doesn’t exist, or maybe the statistical test wasn’t powerful enough to detect a small but real effect.

[Via http://blueollie.wordpress.com]

More trouble ahead?

Professor Nouriel Roubini recently stated at a conference call with investors that: “there was a socialization of the losses of the financial system and housing market, and now there are huge budget deficits, and public debt almost doubled, so we see serious sovereign risks not only in Greece but also in Portugal and Spain, and spreading in the future to the United States, Britain and Japan.” Please remember that Professor Roubini has more than proven himself absolutely correct about our present global economy situation on his early 2006 forecasts.

But Professor Roubini is not alone. Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard professor and former chief economist of the IMF issued a warning as well, stating that Greece is just the beginning of a second wave of bankruptcies. After the financial turmoil of 2008, now it is the excessive indebtedness of the governments of advanced countries that will undermine the economy. Rogoff examined 800 years of financial crisis to write his book, ”This Time is Different”, with Professor Carmen Reinhard. “There are several other countries on the radar: Ireland, Portugal and Spain.” Outside the euro zone, Ukraine, Romania, Hungary and the Baltic countries would be other nations that are quite fragile. He concludes that the pattern is repeated throughout history: after banking crises like the one in the world in 2008, after Lehman Brothers, there is always a wave of sovereign debt crises. To save the financial systems, governments enter into debt. A few years later, there is a wave of crises and sovereign debt defaults. That is, after a crisis in the financial system, there comes a crisis of sovereign debt.

Niall Ferguson, writing in the Financial Times last month, swelled the chorus of pessimists. “It started in Athens. It is spreading to Lisbon and Madrid. But it would be a big mistake to think that the crisis of sovereign debt under way, will be confined to weaker economies in the euro area. This is more than just a Mediterranean problem. This is a fiscal crisis of the Western world.”

Professors Rogoff and Reinhard last January, published a study, “Growth in Time of Debt”, that serves as a continuation of their book. Even in countries where a sovereign default is not likely – Great Britain, USA and Japan – the debt has increased so much that these nations will have anemic growth for years. According to Rogoff, when the debt approaches 90% of GDP it acts as a brake on growth. “These countries have growth below potential over the years.” According to the economist, the level of indebtedness of the countries most affected by the crisis has risen 75% since 2007. Greece and Italy have debt exceeding 100% of GDP and Japan, over 200%. By 2014, Great Britain, USA, Italy, Germany and France will have debts between 90% and 100% of GDP, and in Japan, the debt will exceed 240% of GDP.

The U.S. is not near a default. And with Europe more unstable, more investors should park their money in U.S. securities, facilitating the financing of the monumental debt of $ 12.5 Trillion. Still, the situation in the medium term is scary. According to recent projections by the White House, the budget deficit this year should be within 11% of GDP. The Chinese have significantly reduced the purchase of U.S. bonds. In 2006, they bought 47% of newly issued securities, in 2008, 20% and last year, only 5%. Morgan Stanley estimates that the yield of the 10 years treasuries will rise from 3.5% to 5.5% by the end of the year. And last month, Moody’s warned that the AAA rating (highest possible) in the U.S. should not be regarded as assured. Fitch Agency in its report of December 2009, said that to maintain the AAA status, countries must “implement credible plans for fiscal consolidation and need to generate primary surpluses to maintain investor confidence, in addition to maintaining low and stable inflation.”

[Via http://tomcunha.wordpress.com]

Topic: Sovereign Debt - Just Take The Punch?

The chief executive of the worlds biggest bond fund Pimco, Mr. Mohamed El-Erian, presents a six-point-analysis on how to deal with the sovereign debt problem. His conclusion is that we should expect – rather than be surprised by – damaging recognition lags in both the public and private sectors.

“Playbooks are not readily available when it comes to new systemic themes.”

Mohamed El-Erian

We should expect – rather than be surprised by – damaging recognition lags in both the public and private sectors. Playbooks are not readily available when it comes to new systemic themes. This leads many to revert to backward-looking analytical models, the thrust of which is essentially to assume away the relevance of the new systemic phenomena, Mr. El-Erian writes in a post, published in The Financial Times this week.

Today, we should all be paying attention to a new theme: the simultaneous and significant deterioration in the public finances of many advanced economies. At present this is being viewed primarily – and excessively – through the narrow prism of Greece. Down the road, it will be recognized for what it is: a significant regime shift in advanced economies with consequential and long-lasting effects. To stay ahead of the process, we should keep the following six points in mind.

First, at the most basic level, what we are experiencing is best characterized as the latest in a series of disruptions to balance sheets. In 2008-09, governments had to step in to counter the simultaneous implosion in housing, finance and consumption. The world now has to deal with the consequences of how this was done.

US sovereign indebtedness has surged by a previously unthinkable 20 percentage points of gross domestic product in less than two years. Even under a favorable growth scenario, the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to continue to increase over the next 10 years from its much higher base.

Many metrics speak to the generalized nature of the disruption to public finances. My favourite comes from Willem Buiter, Citi’s chief economist. More than 40 per cent of global GDP now resides in jurisdictions (overwhelmingly in the advanced economies) running fiscal deficits of 10 per cent of GDP or more. For much of the past 30 years, this fluctuated in the 0-5 per cent range and was dominated by emerging economies.

Second, the shock to public finances is undermining the analytical relevance of conventional classifications. Consider the old notion of a big divide between advanced and emerging economies. A growing number of the former now have significantly poorer economic and financial prospects, and greater vulnerabilities, than a growing number of the latter.

Third, the issue is not whether governments in advanced economies will adjust; they will. The operational questions relate to the nature of the adjustment (orderly versus disorderly), timing and collateral impact.

Governments naturally aspire to overcome bad debt dynamics through the orderly (and relatively painless) combination of growth and a willingness on the part of the private sector to maintain and extend holdings of government debt. Such an outcome, however, faces considerable headwinds in a world of unusually high unemployment, muted growth dynamics, persistently large deficits and regulatory uncertainty.

Countries will thus be forced to make difficult decisions relating to higher taxation and lower spending. If these do not materialize on a timely basis, the universe of likely outcomes will expand to include inflating out of excessive debt and, in the extreme, default and confiscation.

Fourth, governments can impose solutions on other sectors in the domestic economy. They do so by pre-empting and diverting resources. This is particularly relevant when there is limited scope for the cross-border migration of activities, which is the case today given the generalized nature of the public finance shock.

Fifth, the international dimension will complicate the internal fiscal adjustment facing advanced economies. The effectiveness of any fiscal consolidation is not only a function of a government’s willingness and ability to implement measures over the medium term. It is also influenced by what other countries decide to do.

These five points all support the view that the shock to balance sheets is highly relevant to a wide range of sectors and markets. Yet for now, the inclination is to dismiss the shock as isolated, temporary and reversible.

This leads to the sixth and final point. We should expect (rather than be surprised by) damaging recognition lags in both the public and private sectors. Playbooks are not readily available when it comes to new systemic themes. This leads many to revert to backward-looking analytical models, the thrust of which is essentially to assume away the relevance of the new systemic phenomena.

Here’s a copy of the full post, published in The Financial Times 03.10.2010.

So, what do you think?

Should we just take the punch and get over it?

Earlier posts:

Sovereign Debt – Too Hot To Handle?

Sovereign Debt – The Only Solution? Sovereign Debt – Want To Buy A Greek Island?

Related articles by Zemanta

• Eurozone could risk ’sovereign debt explosion’ (telegraph.co.uk)
• “Will Government Debt Affect Growth?” and related posts (leedsonfinance.com)
• Post-Crisis Strategy: A Question of Trust (blogs.hbr.org)
• ‘Black Swan’ Author Concerned About Hyperinflation (Update1) (businessweek.com)
• Reggie Middleton: Smoking Guns Are Beginning to Litter EuroLand, Sovereign Debt Buyer Beware! (huffingtonpost.com)
• Chris Wood: The Sovereign Debt End Game (seekingalpha.com)
• How much is too much (economist.com)

[Via http://moontalkeconotwist.wordpress.com]

US Vice-President Joe Biden strong condamnation of Israel

Statement by Vice President Joseph R. Biden, Jr.

Jerusalem – Al Quds “I condemn the decision by the government of Israel to advance planning for new housing units in East Jerusalem. The substance and timing of the announcement, particularly with the launching of proximity talks, is precisely the kind of step that undermines the trust we need right now and runs counter to the constructive discussions that I’ve had here in Israel. We must build an atmosphere to support negotiations, not complicate them. This announcement underscores the need to get negotiations under way that can resolve all the outstanding issues of the conflict. The United States recognizes that Jerusalem is a deeply important issue for Israelis and Palestinians and for Jews, Muslims and Christians.  We believe that through good faith negotiations, the parties can mutually agree on an outcome that realizes the aspirations of both parties for Jerusalem and safeguards its status for people around the world.  Unilateral action taken by either party cannot prejudge the outcome of negotiations on permanent status issues.   As George Mitchell said in announcing the proximity talks, “we encourage the parties and all concerned to refrain from any statements or actions which may inflame tensions or prejudice the outcome of these talks.”"

[Via http://centruldiplomatic.wordpress.com]

Economic Report: Japan growth revised down, as deflation deepens

TOKYO (MarketWatch) — The Japanese government revised fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth down Thursday, due to slightly weaker corporate capital expenditures and private inventories, and also tweaked down a gauge measuring prices to show record-deep deflation.

Japan revised down its October-December GDP growth to an annualized 3.8%, data released Thursday by the Cabinet Office showed. That was below the preliminary reading of 4.6% annualized growth, and below a forecast for revised growth of 4.1% according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and the Nikkei. See story on Japan preliminary GDP report.

GDP grew 0.9% from the previous quarter, the Cabinet Office said, compared to a preliminary reading of 1.1% growth.

Japan Plays Game of Chicken Over Looming Tuna Ban

With a ban on bluefin tuna import and export in the Atlantic likely, the question is whether Japan will honor or ignore the move to halt the sharp decline in the population of the rare and pricey fish, WSJ’s Heath Cozens reports.

Corporate spending was rose 0.9% in the quarter, less than the initial reading of a 1.0% rise.

Deflation is the key

The GDP deflator, a key gauge of deflation, was revised to a 2.8% year-on-year decline, compared with an initially reported decline of 3.0%, which some analysts said added pressure to the Bank of Japan to adopt more liquidity-boosting steps to counter deflation.

Such easing steps would likely weigh on the yen but boost the stock market business cards.

“Forget about the revised headline number and inventory revision; if the worst deflation on record prompts the BOJ to finally step in less gingerly and adopt significant new easing measures, then we could get some meaningful yen weakening in April — with a strong positive effect on the Nikkei,” Uwe Parpart, chief Asia strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald, said in emailed comments.

The BOJ will likely consider more monetary easing at a two-day meeting starting March 16, Japanese business daily Nikkei reported last week. See full story on BOJ easing report.

Japan’s monthly economic report, due out Monday, is expected to include an upgrade to the overall view for the first time in eight months, but the government will likely emphasize that Japan remains in deflation, the Nikkei reported Thursday.

The government will say that the economy is making a steady recovery due to corporate production growth on the back of stronger exports, particularly to China, but the monthly report will likely warn that the economy still faces challenges.

The yen weakened slightly after the revised GDP data were released, with the U.S. dollar buying 90.46, compared with 90.40 yen shortly before the release.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average opened higher, and was up 0.9%.

Economic Report: Japan growth revised down, as deflation deepens

[Via http://finbel.wordpress.com]

Is the British Crime Survey of any use at all?

The British Crime Survey is a survey of people’s views. It is not related to actual crime figures and is based on people’s perceptions of crime. It is easy to manipulate. People may believe that violent crime is too high in our society but the survey asks if people feel that it has got worse or better. They may feel that it has not got worse recently even though they may believe the level of violent crime is far too high!!! The British Crime Survey is a questionnaire of 40,000 households, and is unrelated to actual recorded crime figures. How can this survey be recognised as the most accurate way of recording crime levels!! It is a joke! The best way is to count the actual violent crimes that take place. Nothing is more accurate that that! The Conservatives are exposing the under reporting of violent crime by New Labour. I suspect strongly that if the view of the survey was that violent crime had gone up or there was a decrease in actual violent crime then this government would go back to the official figures! I don’t understand the point of the British Crime Survey anyway! It is not factual, simply people’s perceptions. On this basis crime will go down on nice sunny days or when England win a football game! Crime will go up when people are feeling down! I suspect that it is a political attempt to mislead people by distracting them from the actual crime figures!

[Via http://itsmyview.me.uk]

Why to Sell in Today's Market

Last month, the Jansen Multifamily Team polled Puget Sound apartment investors about their impressions of the current market.  That poll data, coupled with our own observations form the basis for a three-part series on the “Why’s” of today’s Puget Sound apartment market.  This week’s post, number two of three, discusses why to sell in today’s market.

Generally speaking, nobody wants to sell in a market like today’s.  Values have come down 15-20% off their market peaks, significantly eroding many investors’ equity in their assets, and the prospective buyer pool has shrunk as many investors wait on the sidelines until the market clearly “hits bottom.”  For many Puget Sound apartment investors, now may seem like the wrong time to sell.  However, the situation is not completely dire, as there are still strong reasons to sell today, including the opportunity to re-leverage, the availability of cheap debt, and a historically low capital gains rate.

Re-Leverage Your Capital

In last month’s JMT poll, 44% of respondents indicated that an opportunity to re-leverage would motivate them to sell in today’s market, and it is a compelling argument.  Current market conditions enable investors to sell their apartment buildings today and reposition their net proceeds into superior assets that better fulfill their investment goals.

The fundamental rationale for re-leveraging is the notion that, if your value has gone down, your neighbor’s value has gone down as well.  Relative buying power has not changed for the worse.  Rather, buying power has gotten better for prospective purchasers.  Selling into a declining market gives investors the opportunity to strike a better deal on the replacement property as prices continue to decline.  If one were selling into a growing market (i.e. after we have “hit bottom”), relative buying power would decline, as prices would continue to appreciate while seeking a replacement property.

Secure Long-Term Debt While Rates Are Low

The opportunity to re-leverage is made even more attractive by the low interest rates currently available through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  Mortgage rates have remained historically low throughout the national economic downturn, as illustrated in chart below (provided by Dupre + Scott Apartment Advisors, Inc.), which tracks mortgage rates over the last 30 years.  Investors that start a new holding period today will enjoy the stability provided by long-term debt at the most competitive rates we will see for years.  Looming inflation will likely drive interest rates up, which will decrease opportunities for positive financial leverage (explained in last week’s “Why to Buy” post).

Dupre + Scott Apartment Advisors, Inc.

Rising interest rates will take many buyers out of the market; those buyers still in the market will require higher capitalization rates to achieve adequate leverage and returns, thereby decreasing asset values.  Apartment owners can avoid this potential scenario by selling into today’s market, where financing is still keeping buyers “in the game.”

Capitalize on Historically Low Capital Gains Rate

Another exceptional way to maximize today’s value is to take advantage of one of the lowest capital gains rates in U.S. history.  The current tax rate on capital gains is 15%, per the Bush tax cuts of 2003, which is the lowest capital gains rate since the 1920s, when the rate was 12.5%.  The Bush tax cuts will expire at the end of 2010, and President Obama has vowed he will not renew them, thus returning the capital gains rate to 20% next year.  As far as where rates could head in the future, it is anyone’s guess (the rate was 28% in the early-to-mid-1990s).

Consider an example where an investor sells a 20-unit apartment building for $2 million.  The investor had $1.2 million in debt on the property and their taxable gain after closing costs and depreciation recapture is $500,000 (estimated for simplicity’s sake).  At the 15% capital gains rate, their tax obligation is $75,000, while at the 20% rate, their tax obligation is $100,000.  By selling today, rather than a year or two into the future, this investor saved $25,000, or possibly more, depending on where the capital gains rate goes in the future.

Selling in today’s market may not be ideal, but whether your motivation to sell is a “have to,” or a “want to,” there are concrete reasons why it makes sense to sell today.  If you unsatisfied with your property’s location, you can re-leverage into a stronger submarket.  If you do re-leverage, you will be locking in long-term debt at some of the lowest rates we will see for a while.  Finally, by selling today and “cashing out,” rather than exchanging, you will take advantage of the final year of capital gains rates at 15%, before they head to 20% and beyond.

There is a downturn in every investment’s holding period, and it makes sense to experience it at the beginning, rather than the end.  Regardless of your motivation, now seems as good of a time as any to start.

Check back in next week for the final installment of our three-part series, as we will be discussing why to refinance in today’s market.

[Via http://jansenmultifamilyteam.com]

Thanks, Washington. Thanks, Wall Street. Come On Down To Our Tent City!!

 

San Francisco

 

Seattle

 

Sacramento

 

Sacramento

Dallas

 

Los Angeles

 

And the beat goes on… and on… and on…

 

Technorati Tags: Tent City, Tent Cities, Wall Street, Bankers, Banks, Politics, Economics, Hypocrisy, Democrats, Republicans, Poverty, Foreclosure

[Via http://grumpylion.wordpress.com]

Real Estate Reality

What will you pay -- or get -- for this Westport home? A lot less than 5 years ago.

A local realtor — hoping to separate reality from rumor — recently ran some numbers.

She examined all Westport sales of single-family homes in the $500,000-$2 million range — the majority of Westport properties.  She used median prices rather than averages, because a few sales at either the high or low end can skew the average.  She found:

2006 — 305 homes sold

Median listing price:  $1,299,000

Median selling price:  $1,255,000

Difference between listing and selling prices:  96.6%

2009 — 183 homes sold

Median listing price:  $988,000

Median selling price:  $940,000

Difference between listing and selling prices:  95%

Difference between 2006 and 2009:  Down 26% in sales dollars, down 40% in volume

January 1-February 28,2010 — 27 homes sold

Median listing price:  $1,158,000

Median selling price:  $1,075,000

Difference between listing and selling prices:  92.8%

January 1-February 28,2010 — 27 homes under contract

Median listing price:  $988,000

What’s it all mean?

“To me, the lower median prices at the beginning of this year are because the tax rebate is getting the low-end and first-time buyers to buy,” she says.  “And it shows that if houses are priced right, they go fairly quickly.”

Homes in higher ranges usually start selling in March.  In fact, she says, March is traditionally the strongest sales month — followed by April and May.

A typical comparative sale, she says, is a “charming Currier and Ives” home on Anchor Lane off North Compo, across from Winslow Park.  In 2005 it was listed at $1,195,000, and sold fast — at the listing price.

This year the same home came on the market at $949,900.  Again it sold quickly — again at the listing price.

“If the price is right, you’ll sell,” the realtor says.

“But people still have a hard time realizing they’re not going to get what their neighbors got 5 years ago.”

She adds:  “On the one hand, that’s sad.

“On the other, maybe it will mean we’ll get more younger buyers coming in.  For a while, Westport was one of the fastest-growing graying markets around.”

[Via http://06880danwoog.com]

Late Night Ramlings

by Colonel Girdle

Dayton, Ohio, 3:30 a.m.

Since I could not sleep because of worry, I got online to find-out how to apply for a job with the U.S. Census. I have applied for job after job, even the ones that would probably not pay enough for me live. So that means I’ll have to work at two crappy jobs… or maybe three. I know people who are already doing that. Once upon a time, I was middle-class. I had worked my way through college and then, with 22 years of hard work, had made my way up into management at one of Dayton’s many solid, large companies. Then one day nine years ago, I was downsized along with hundreds of my co-workers. The company went away to greener pastures of cheaper labor/fewer regulations, and also there went my insurance, vacation, & retirement; all casualties of the only developed nation that ties everything to a person’s job.

Since that day, I have worked at jobs far worse than the crummy ones I had in my youth. For just one example, for about a month I was a subcontractor (that is like an employee, but they are not responsible for anything bad that happens to you) for a company that “recycled” the boiling-hot oil from restaurant deep fryers. I would pull the greasy van up to the back door, trundle a 200 lb. filtering machine on tiny wheels down the slippery ramp and into the building. There I vacuumed the 350 degree oil from the fryer so it could circulate through the filtering machine while I used putty knife & steel wool to scour char off the scortching cooker (all the while praying I wouldn’t get badly scalded), shoot the oil back into the fryer, then head to the next location. By the end of the day I was covered with reeking sour oil & sweat and could hardly stand-up because the bottom of my shoes were slick as snot.

In between the crummy jobs I owned a few small businesses. I sold natural pain cream at a flea market, I had a janitorial company where I did 90% of the janitoring, I sold used CD’s & DVD’s at a flea market. If any of those things were once a good way to make money, they sure aren’t now. Myrtle helped me with these, as best she could, while working at her own jobs.

I wound-up working in a convenience store and from that experience my desperation gave me the really awful idea that taking all our remaining assets and buying a store was a good idea. Blinded by love, Myrtle went down that bumpy road with me. I will not go into further detail recounting that four-year-disaster and the constant 100 hour workweeks we put in. Memory of it brings on a sort of Post Traumatic Stress Syndrome. Suffice it to say that it was not too big to fail. It went belly-up during the late 2008-early 2009 crash with nary a peep from the Bush nor Obama Administrations.

As a result, I am more broke than I have ever been in my life. Actually, I’m far, far into the negative net worth zone. At first, I still hoped to find a way to dig myself out of debt. But I soon learned that was the impossible dream when, for instance, the credit card company I had for 15 years lent a helping hand by increasing my interest rate to 29.99% – when I had never missed a payment. Now they are getting 0%, since I’ll be filing for bankruptcy (guilt-free I might add) just as soon as I can finish the paperwork. I am far from alone in my struggles. My circle of friends & family recommend good bankruptcy lawyers the way we used to recommend good restaurants. People I know who used to “have it made” are sinking and everyone under them is drowning or already drowned. I personally know (and try to help) people who have taken to living in basements, cars, and tents! (By the way – See our “Friends” link to A Voice for the Commonwealth)

Being poor wasn’t a huge adjustment. Myrtle and I had never been big-spenders. We did not believe in materialism. We’ve never had a desire for trendy clothes or the latest electronic gadget. Instead, we put our spare time, money, and energy into charity work and enjoyed the simple things in life. However, I was used to paying the bills and having money left-over. Now buying a cheap bottle of shampoo is a financial decision that requires thought.

Our system will collapse, probably soon, from its own crushing weight. Every time I see, hear, or read about the latest actions of our business-government “leaders,” I derive comfort from knowing I am speeding that collapse along: My lack of spending denies money to the military-industrial-entertainment-healthcare complex and I’m too poor to pay taxes to the rotten government it owns.

But I don’t mean to sound bitter.

[Via http://colonelgirdle.wordpress.com]

Mazda 3 York PA

Specifications for Mazda 3 York PA Dimensions

• 15.9 gallon main unleaded fuel tank 13.2
• Cargo area cover/rear parcel shelf
• Cargo capacity: all seats in place (cu ft): 17.0
• External dimensions: overall length (inches): 177.4, overall width (inches): 69.1, overall height (inches): 57.9, wheelbase (inches): 103.9, front track (inches): 60.2, rear track (inches): 59.6 and curb to curb turning circle (feet): 17.1
• Internal dimensions: front headroom (inches): 38.9, rear headroom (inches): 38.0, front hip room (inches): 53.7, rear hip room (inches): 52.2, front leg room (inches): 42.0, rear leg room (inches): 36.2, front shoulder room (inches): 54.9, rear shoulder room (inches): 54.0 and interior volume (cu ft): 94.6
• Weights: curb weight (lbs) 3,005

Performance

• Emissions: SULEV ( 7.7 annual tons of CO2)
• Engine: 2.5L in-line 4 double overhead cam with VVT ( 9.7 :1 compression ratio ; four valves per cylinder)
• Front-wheel drive
• Fuel consumption: city= 21 (mpg); highway= 29 (mpg); combined= 24 (mpg); vehicle range: 382 miles
• Fuel: unleaded ( 87 octane)
• Multi-point injection fuel system
• Power: 167 HP ( 125 kW) @ 6,000 rpm; 168 ft lb of torque ( 228 Nm) @ 4,000 rpm
• Strut front suspension independent with stabilizer bar and coil springs, multi-link rear suspension independent with stabilizer bar and coil springs

Features Comfort

• 12v power outlet: front
• Air conditioning
• Audio system with AM/FM and CD player CD player reads MP3
• Clock
• Computer with average speed, average fuel consumption, instantaneous fuel consumption and range for remaining fuel
• Cruise control
• Dashboard
• Delayed/fade courtesy lights
• Driver and passenger power painted door mirrors indicator lights
• External temperature
• Floor and overhead console
• Floor mats
• Front power windows with one one-touch, rear power windows
• Front reading lights
• Front seat center armrest
• Front seats and rear seats cup holders
• Illuminated driver and passenger vanity mirror
• Leather covered steering wheel with tilt adjustment and telescopic adjustment
• Low tire pressure indicator
• Luxury trim alloy & leather on gearknob, alloy look on doors and alloy look on dashboard
• Rear seat center armrest
• Roof antenna
• Seating: five seats
• Service interval indicator
• Six speaker(s)
• Sports driver seat with height adjustment manual, sports passenger seat
• Steering wheel mounted remote audio controls
• Tachometer
• Three asymmetrical bench front facing rear seats with zero adjustments
• Transmission: six-speed manual ; incl shifter on floor
• Upgraded cloth/velour seat upholstery with additional cloth
• Vehicle speed proportional power steering
• Ventilation system with micro filter
• Voice activating system includes phone

Exterior

• Fixed rear window with defogger and intermittent
• Front and rear all seasons tires with 205 mm tire width, 50% tire profile, V tire rating and black sidewall
• Front and rear alloy wheels with 17 inch rim diam and 7.0 inch rim width
• Front fog lights
• Mica paint
• Painted front and rear bumpers
• Projector beam lens halogen bulb headlights
• Rear view mirror
• Roof spoiler
• Spacesaver steel rim spare wheel
• Windshield wipers with variable intermittent wipe

Safety

• 3-point reel rear seat belts on driver side, passenger side and center side
• ABS
• Brake assist system
• Driver front airbag with multi-stage deployment, passenger front airbag with occupant sensors and multi-stage deployment
• Electronic brake distribution
• Electronic traction control via ABS & engine management
• Four disc brakes including two ventilated discs
• Front and rear side curtain airbag
• Front side airbag
• Height adjustable 3-point reel front seat belts on driver seat and passenger seat with pre-tensioners
• Immobilizer
• Remote power locks includes trunk/hatch and speed sensing
• Stability control
• Two height adjustable active head restraints on front seats, two height adjustable head restraints on rear seats

Warranty

• Anti-Corrosion – 60 mo / Unlimited mi
• Full Warranty – 36 mo / 36,000 mi
• Powertrain Warranty – 60 mo / 60,000 mi
• Roadside Assistance – 36 mo / 36,000 mi

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[Via http://mazdayorkpa.wordpress.com]

South-Korean battle for jobs in binman olympics

Hundreds of desperate job-seekers took part in a ‘binman olympics’ to compete for just 14 jobs as road sweepers.

Nearly 500 entrants competed for what are considered plum civil service jobs in Gumi, South Korea, which is suffering a severe economic crisis.

Contestants had to sprint with a 20kg bag of rice to show endurance and race against the clock to sweep 100 metres of simulated road.

In another section they had to demonstrate how quickly they can dispose of dog poo using tongs and plastic bags while being cheered on by family members and friends.

Kim Hye-ran, 27, explained: “If my husband gets the job our problems are over.

“I’ll open a chicken restaurant next to our house. Street cleaners knock off at four o’clock, so in the evening, he can deliver fried chicken.”

bron: www.ananova.com

[Via http://wocview.wordpress.com]

Republicans Pre-Throw Their Own Parliamentarian Under The Bus

Republicans tried to ram through a bunch of dumb shit, really expensive dumb shit, really irresponsible dangerously dumb shit, through reconciliation, when they were in office. So dumb, in fact, that the parliamentarian balked. So they fired the guy and replaced him with the new guy they have now. And now that it’s the Democrats trying to ram through some good shit through, they’re not waiting to discover the outcome. They’re already salting the well with ominous character bashing, just in case they don’t like it. The one thing you don’t ever want to do is trust a Republican. Or believe their smile. Or shake their hand. They’re an oily reptilian group of turbo-charged inbred badgers.

And they’ve taken crazy desperation to an art form.

Some have asked why they’re taking such a loud braying shrill stand against reforming a completely fucked up system (but the doctors are great!) that will break our wallets and the national economy if it isn’t fixed…when, you know, it just might work. It just might help people and bring down costs and actually do the things Obama says it will. Will Republicans feel shame? Will they feel like fools? To which I answer NO! Of course not! Think about it. It’s been less than two years since Republicans finished up one of the countries’ most consistent runs of dumb shit ever. It’s right up there with the Celtics 8-year championship run, but, you know, bad. It’s an unheralded streak of relentless foolishness and irresponsibility. And they are not only showing no shame for their culpability in our contemporary culture of HOLY CREEPING GOAT SHIT!!! Where doom lurks around every corner and our bank accounts shrink by the day.

Instead, they stand proud. As what? Our Defenders! They’re trying to use the Jedi Mind trick on us; hoping to convince us that all that we’ve seen and heard and smelled (bullshit) for the last decade, in fact, never happened. So, if, in ten years, our premiums have gone down, the deficit starts shrinking, and the economy rights itself, don’t expect them to hang their heads and hold a press conference filled with mea culpas. No, they will, with a straight face, stand proud and take credit for it. Because that’s what they’ve always done. They take credit for all the good shit they try so hard to stop, and blame all the toxic stupidity they actually do accomplish, on the Democrats. You have to go back a long time to find a Democrat who wasn’t elected to fix a Republican mess. Republicans get elected because they used to be movie stars or they wear cowboy boots or they seem fun to drink with; Democrats get elected when Republicans get things so out of whack that a Democrat can win.

Since Republicans have already forgotten how hapless and useless they are, it’s our job not to. If in two or six years Republicans find some former rodeo star who can lasso and wears boots and has crazy well-crafted hair and a cool swagger – with a brain the size of a walnut, it’s our job to vote for the responsible smart geek on the other side.

Even if they’re boring!

[Via http://greedheadswine.wordpress.com]

Are they going to set a new killing record this year?

Are they going to set a new killing record this year?

Of course PR has beautiful things. This is logical… but if you are a foreigner or tourist visiting PR I recommend you to take a glance to the local Newspapers. You can read them in Internet also. You can hurt yourself if you don’t.

The crime and violence records are as high as those countries in war. I’m not going to show you the macabre scenarios…

I think some government personnel would think that if you don’t go to the ‘wrong places’ you will be safe… so there is nothing to worry about. Or if you’re a tourist keeping within our Tourism Department ‘guidance’ will be fine… but this isn’t true… This would be your trap.

Many crimes strike outside the drug trafficking ring business, also shutting from car to car, malls, etc.

So if you decide to come here (do you know you can travel to mountains and caves in Afghanistan also?) take care first, and then enjoy.

[Via http://analyzei.wordpress.com]

The Sinister Plots of Gore & Pelosi

It has taken awhile but former Vice President Al Gore has emerged from seclusion to address climate-gate. He penned this article in yesterday’s New York Times. It is called “We Can’t Wish Away Climate Change.” So, we can wish away the terms ‘global warming’ and ‘global cooling’ but not climate change. I see.

I wonder if we could wish away Al Gore. No one missed him. He can go back into seclusion and live his delusion about climate change. (Not that he is living in a hut, on the land, not using electricity. He actually has a sizable carbon footprint.) 

For the rest of us in the real world, who see the stories about data that do not support the climate change mantra, we are no longer fooled by the greens. Some of us were never fooled–myself included–about man-made climate change.

Imagine destroying our economy over make-believe utopian fantasies and bad science. Hey, that sounds like what the liberals want to do about health care! And, as with health care reform–or what I call health care destruction–Democrats in Congress will not give up.

Cap and trade legislation which would kill our already faltering economy will be brought back up again shortly by Senators John Kerry and Joe Lieberman for the Dems and turncoat Republican Lindsey Graham. Read more about their plans here.

Just like the Dems never say die (unless it involves an unborn baby), Pelosi, their queen, has indicated that the health care bill, some form of it, will pass. No matter what. Even if it does mean political death.

Pelosi, who is known for making multiple stupid comments, said the following, according to Fox News:

“We’re not here just to self-perpetuate our service in Congress. “We’re here to do the job for the American people.”

So nutty Nancy thinks she knows better than the American people what is best for the country. She thinks that her fellow Dems–who do not have the advantage of being from a commie community like San Fran–should fall on the sword. She appears unwilling to do so herself but she must think it unnecessary considering her constituents. She is a piece of work; the only one more arrogant in the government is Obama himself.

So what does the persistence of Gore and Pelosi tell us? These are dangerous ideologues, who do not understand that they are to represent the people, not their crazy agenda for building up power for their ilk. Make no mistake–these people are not interested in health care or the environment. It is all about power. This is scary and un-American.

What can we do? Keep fighting. Let your representative know he will be voted out if he goes along with these Dem leaders who are intent on destroying this great nation.

Thankfully Gore is out of office but Pelosi needs to go (as Sen. Harry Reid will be going). Even if she cannot be voted out, are there no conservative or moderate Dems to rise up and take over the leadership? She is such an embarrassment to your party. Ending her disastrous reign would probably save y’all a few seats in November. (Not to give Dems good advice but it seems obvious anyway.)

[Via http://sualma.wordpress.com]

Brazil Weekly, February 28th

POLITICS

Mercosur, South America’s co-operative trade organization, and the EU could forge an historic trade alliance as early as May of this year according to some sources. However there remains a key issue confronting the two parties: agricultural subsidies that the developed world pays to domestic producers, inhibiting the ability of other nations to compete in an open market (Rio Times).

ECONOMY

Brazil’s central bank is prepared to take unpopular measures to maintain stability in the financial system, the bank’s president Henrique Meirelles said, further preparing the ground for a rate hike (Reuters).

President Lula said his government will expand a project to build low- income homes for workers, bringing the total number of new homes planned to 2 million, up from an original target of 1 million (Bloomberg).

Brazil may create a company to oversee boosting fertilizer production as it seeks to become self-sufficient in potash, phosphate and nitrogen-based raw materials by 2020 (Bloomberg).

Further evidence that the Brazilian economy is continuing on an upward trajectory was provided recently with the release by independent consultants Brand Finance of its list of “The 500 Most Valuable Brand Names in the World.” In 2009 there were only six Brazilian brands appearing on this list, this year it has already jumped up to an impressive fifteen (Rio Times).

BUSINESS

Brazil’s No. 3 steelmaker CSN aims to increase sales in 2010 by one third to 5.5 million tonnes, up from last year’s 4.1 million tonnes (Reuters).

Brazil’s largest poultry exporter, Brazil Foods  said export sales revenues plummeted in 2009 and it expects recovery to be slow (Reuters).

BANKING & FINANCE

JPMorgan Chase & Co, the second largest U.S. lender by assets, is in talks to buy a stake in Brazilian hedge fund and private equity firm Gavea (Reuters).

Banco do Brasil, Latin America’s largest lender, said it is exploring ways to raise capital including a possible share sale (Reuters).

OIL

Petrobras said it had made two separate discoveries of oil in the Campos Basin near Brazil’s coast with recoverable reserves of 40 million and 25 million barrels (Reuters).

A bill being debated gives Petrobras rights to 5 billion barrels of oil in exchange for giving the government new stock as part of a broader share offering estimated at as much as $50 billion by Credit Suisse (Bloomberg).

TRAVEL

Hol, Brazil’s second-largest airline, forecast domestic demand will increase as much as 18 percent this year as economic growth accelerates (Bloomberg).

REAL ESTATE

Brazil may be on the cusp of a much-discussed real estate boom, but in one corner of Zona Sul where the price per square meter is higher than anywhere in the country, there are relatively few new developments underway. Leblon may be lacking the tidal wave of jackhammers, building crews and construction cranes found in Barra da Tijuca, but there are changes underway in Rio’s luxury beach-side (Rio Times).

[Via http://brazil-weekly.com]

ObamaCare and Principled Liberalism

Ed Morrissey has a post at Hot Air that caught my attention. It’s worth reading, as it contains some accurate insight from Andy McCarthy and Dennis Prager too. The question is whether or not enough Democrats in this Congress are so principled that they’re willing to force through ObamaCare even if it kills them politically.

This is an interesting question, and the answer illustrates an important point. I cannot emphasize enough the wave of radical leftists that have taken over the Democrat party. That may sound like an exaggerated charge, coming from a person with my political beliefs, but it’s absolutely true. I’ve watched these liberals take over the Democrat party, and now the country. One strong signal that the new wave had come to town was when Henry Waxman ousted John Dingell in the House Energy and Commerce Committee. Another was Nancy Pelosi becoming speaker of the House.

These people are far from the mainstream of this country. They are not moderately left, they are quintessential liberals. They believe that America is the source of the world’s problems, and that government elites must try to make up for the imbalances and injustices of the world. They believe in some form of Marxism and redistribution, whether that’s through taxes or energy regulation. They are hostile to businesses, and they despise efforts by those outside of their circles and not under their control to gain wealth. They believe that interpretation of  the Constitution must adapt to today’s trends. They’ll sacrifice their own party if they have to in order to remake this country.

I’ve been daring the Democrats to try to jam through ObamaCare after Massachusetts because I don’t think they have the votes, and I anticipate such a partisan push will significantly hurt them politically. That said, I can almost guarantee you that the liberal leadership running this country will not give up. I agree with Morrissey, McCarthy, and Prager about that.

The question is whether or not enough of the Democrat party will go along with them. I don’t believe so (meaning not all Democrats fit the description I offered above), but we still need to continue to communicate the dangers of liberal policies, and present viable alternatives. If we lose the argument over debates like what caused the economic collapse, these liberals could take advantage and push their massive agenda. If you don’t yet believe that their agenda is far from moderate, you will if they pass it and we have to endure it.

[Via http://veruspolitics.wordpress.com]

Rubin May Testify Before Financial Crisis Commission

One of the architects of the financial meltdown, and the Godfather of the Obama economic team, might have some ‘splainin’ to do. From Bloomberg:

“Robert Rubin, the former U.S. Treasury secretary who later advised Citigroup Inc. as the bank piled up subprime-mortgage losses, may soon face his first public grilling on the 2008 financial crisis.

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission investigating the worst economic slump since the Great Depression, plans to ask Rubin to testify in April, said two people with knowledge of the commission’s decisions.

Ask? How about subpoena?

“Rubin’s reputation dimmed  after the U.S. bailed out New York-based Citigroup with $45 billion and AIG had to be propped up because of losses on derivatives. When Rubin was President Bill Clinton’s Treasury secretary, he fought efforts to regulate derivatives.”

His reputation dimmed? Barack Obama didn’t get that memo:

“[Obama] named Rubin to be an economic adviser during the 2008 presidential campaign, and two Treasury protégés, Lawrence Summers and Timothy Geithner are top officials in the White House. Summers, 55, is chief economic adviser and Geithner, 48, is Treasury secretary.”

And that’s not all:

“Just below Summers is Jason Furman, who worked for Rubin in the Clinton White House and was one of the first directors of Rubin’s Hamilton Project.

…to serve alongside Furman at the NEC [Obama hired] management consultant Diana Farrell, who worked under Rubin at Goldman Sachs. In 2003, Farrell was the author of an infamous paper in which she argued that sending American jobs overseas might be “as beneficial to the U.S. as to the destination country, probably more so.”

…Over at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which is supposed to regulate derivatives trading, Obama appointed Gary Gensler, a former Goldman banker who worked under Rubin in the Clinton White House. Gensler had been instrumental in helping to pass the infamous Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000, which prevented regulation of derivative instruments like CDOs and credit-default swaps that played such a big role in cratering the economy last year.

And as head of the powerful Office of Management and Budget, Obama named Peter Orszag, who served as the first director of Rubin’s Hamilton Project.”

[Via http://desperadosoutpost.com]

Daily Photo 2.26.10 (CNN Express in Austin!)

Yes, the CNN Express Bus in here in Austin, apparently doing a story about Austin and the economy.  According to CNN’s Tom Foreman, “some analysts are saying Austin, Texas, may be a national leader in economic recovery” http://ow.ly/1bqKG

Well, I know too many people that have lost their jobs or can’t live in their homes anymore.  Some may not be un-employed, but sure are UNDER-employed.  It does not mean that you can afford to live here.  I personally am tired of struggling myself.  It’s just so hard I can’t stand it sometimes!  So I want to know, if we are going to be a leader in the national economic recovery, will the new companies hire the people that lost their jobs during the last 10 years?  Or are they just going to hire new/straight from college workers, with no experience, that they can pay almost nothing to.  Or are they going to bring workers from wherever they came from.  Just to let you know, between all the high-tech employers that have laid off workers in Austin the last 10 years or so, there is a pool of incredible, talented workers, that have given up on finding a decent paying job and are working for minimum wage just to get by.  They are engineers, technicians, etc. with years of experience.  Think about them first and give them a chance, before looking elsewhere.

CNN Express at the Long Center, Austin Tx

[Via http://golivas.wordpress.com]

Get used to high inflation!

Image via Wikipedia

There’s something missing from all the talk of whether or not the economic bailouts have saved the world from a depression – as opposed to a severe recession – and that’s how the massive spending by governments around the world is going to be paid for.

Perhaps it’s the “party effect.” After all, when you’re having fun at a party, nobody wants to think about the hangover that will be with you tomorrow. Not that we’re all having fun in the current recession, of course, although it could have been a lot worse. But the hangover is sure to follow.

The problem is that governments around the world have realised they are easily able to spend money they don’t have, and the recourse – if it comes at all – will come on somebody else’s watch: generally the opposition party that comes in after them. It’s nice to have your political foe lumbered with your mess…

However, the facts are clear – public debt (i.e. what governments owe) has grown at an alarming rate. Let’s look at a few examples among the world’s larger economies, showing public debt as a percentage of GDP for each country at the end of 2009 (using estimates from the CIA World Fact Book):

• USA                       83.4%
• Japan                    192.1%
• Germany              77.2%
• France                  79.7%
• UK                         68.5%
• Italy                      115.2%

What these huge percentages mean is that, firstly, government is over-spending dramatically and secondly, that the percentage of government income (read: taxes!) that go just on interest payments on this debt has grown to become one of the largest single budgetary items.

In fact, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently estimated that Japan and the UK would need to reduce government spending by 13% and the US by nearly 9% just to “restore stability” over the next decade. How can they do this with such massive bills to pay? Oh, and it’s worth noting that the public debt does NOT include provisions for future expenditure on pensions, medical assistance and other state commitments – this is only the current debt!

So, what can governments do?

Reducing government spending to any meaningful degree is often seen as political suicide – especially as elections get closer.

Raising taxes is even worse…

There are only two, linked, things they can do to get the public debt as a percentage of GDP down in a reasonable time: keep interest rates artificially low to reduce interest payments and allow inflation into the system to increase GDP and their own revenue as a result.

A 10% inflation rate over five years will reduce the percentage of public debt by close to half, assuming the GDP growth matches or exceeds the inflation rate (e.g. grows in real terms). The other benefit of this is that government revenues will increase accordingly – higher sales means more sales tax/VAT, salaries rising around inflation rate will mean more tax income (the tax decreases are always lower than the extra amount paid through “bracket creep”), and so on.

My guess is governments won’t allow 10% as it’s psychologically too high, but I expect to see inflation moving quite quickly to the high single-digit range, say, 9%. We’ll need to tighten our belts and adjust our business plans accordingly – the ride for the next decade will be somewhat rough.

Related articles by Zemanta

• Britain’s debt set to be higher than that of Greece (telegraph.co.uk)
• Too soon to cut public spending, IMF warns (guardian.co.uk)
• Delay cuts, says leading economists (leftfootforward.org)
• What to Do About Inflation – and What Not to Do (usnews.com)

[Via http://guywhitcroft.com]

WellPoint CEO defends rate hikes as pressure grows | Reuters

As much as I don’t like the health insurance companies increasing rates, the one thing that the WellPoint CEO said, during the congressional hearings, that I agree with 100% is:

Unfortunately, the leading proposals being discussed in Washington don’t do enough to control costs” and that other industries “need to be called upon to reduce these costs.

There are no measures in any of the bills proposed that would control the rising costs of health care. Especially in the form of tort reform. Why is there no mention of tort reform? Because trial lawyers, those that benefit from frivolous lawsuits, are HUGE contributors to the democratic party, giving close to 73% of the time to Dems (almost $179 Million, in 2008 alone).

WellPoint CEO defends rate hikes as pressure grows | Reuters.

[Via http://rabidliberal.com]

The voice of construction

It’s always a case of whoever shouts loudest gets the most attention, so why does our industry always seem to have such a weak voice when it comes to lobbying government?

Take for instance Building Magazine’s latest campaign: They’ve called it Charter 284: A Building Manifesto to promote construction spending. The title comes from the fact that, according to a report by economic consultant LEK, every £1 invested in construction generates £2.84 of GDP.

Why oh why can our voice not be heard? The government listens to car manufacturers, no doubt now the steelworkers, and it seems almost every other industry except ours. Have we really got just the boiler scrappage scheme on the go at the moment?!

And, while I’m on about it, and following what I was saying two weeks ago, what about this for some headline statistics: The government target (set in 2005) was for us to build 240,000 houses by 2016 and a further 240,000 on an annual basis thereafter. But how many did we build in 2009? 118,000!

If everyone in the industry signs up to Building’s campaign will we stand a chance of getting ourselves back on our feet again? I’d like to think so, but will we do it?

If you are interested then you can sign up here, but this is what Building are saying should be done:

1. Complete the renewal of the school estate
2. Don’t let spending on transport infrastructure fall more than 10% below current levels
3. Reduce the regulatory burden on the housing sector to encourage more development
4. Give householders incentives to green existing homes
5. Prioritise the development of renewable energy, including nuclear, through incentives for private sector investment.

What do you think? We’ve got to start somewhere, somehow…

[Via http://derekmynott.wordpress.com]

Ken Garland's 1964 "First Things First" Manifesto

Ken Garland, a British graphic designer, states that graphic designers are being constantly pushed to work for advertising design, as opposed to any other type of design. He states that this is a problem because much of this advertising is for “trivial purposes,” or basically, insignificant products such as “cat food, stomach powders, detergent, hair restorer, striped toothpaste, aftershave lotion, before shave lotion, etc…” As the document is a manifesto, it by definition, is a call to arms for graphic designers to take up Garland’s cause. However, his cause is somewhat contradictory and undefined—I am not quite sure Garland knew what his cause was either.

I suppose I have a few problems with Garland’s argument. First, his argument is based on speculation. He states that designers “have been brought up in a world in which … advertising [has] persistently been presented to us as the most lucrative … and desirable use of [designers'] talents.” He goes on to describe how designers are pushed by all sorts of outside forces into the vein of advertising design. These statements may well be true to his experience as a designer, but he cannot possibly be describing a universal truth, at least, not without some sort of empirical evidence.

Second, Garland states that the majority of adverting that designers create work for are “trivial purposes, which contribute little or nothing to our national prosperity.” Another bold claim with no factual evidence to actually back it up. As quoted earlier, Garland lists out a series of seemingly-insignificant products, yet, how does he—let alone the reader—know for sure that these trivial products make up the majority of graphic design work?

Third, and most problematic, is the fact that there is no concrete call for action to the undersigned designers made by this manifesto. At the end of the fourth paragraph, Garland lists options for other projects designers can work on rather than advertising, such as: “signs for streets and buildings, books and periodicals, catalogs, instruction manuals, industrial photography, educational aids, film, television, etc…” He concludes this list by stating that designers should focus on means that “promote trade, education, culture, and greater awareness of the world.” Unfortunately, much of which he lists, including “trade, culture, and awareness” can all fall under the umbrella category of “advertising.” Also, not all of the projects he lists can be considered socially-just causes. Are all signs, books, magazines, catalogs, instruction manuals, photographs, films, and television programs socially-just? I think not. Garland does bring up the idea of promoting education, which may be the closest thing to being socially-just in the list, however, even education must be put into the context of what is being taught in order to analyze whether it is promoting a “just cause.”

Garland’s aim, to create a better society through “moral design” suffers from the same problems that the modernists had at the Bauhaus in the early 1900’s. The modernists’ argument was that design was needed in order to create a better society, however, society needed to improve itself before it could embrace socially-conscious design, thus resulting in circular logic. Garland calls designers to choose projects carefully in order to create a better world, yet he hopes “that our society will tire of gimmick merchants …. and that the call on our skills will be for worthwhile purposes;” we have a chicken-and-egg paradox.

-rgm



[Via http://mitradesign.wordpress.com]

Listen to George Galloway TalkSPORT show on 20 Feb 2010

Listen to George Galloway TalkSPORT show on 20 Feb 2010

http://www.spiderednews.com/GeorgeGalloway.htm?vid=2421563

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You can share your opinion on our blogs:

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[Via http://spiderednews.wordpress.com]

Digital Domain: The Birth of Cheap Communication (and Junk Mail)

WOULD you pay a full day’s earnings just to receive an e-mail message from me? On those terms, I bet you wouldn’t welcome hearing from me very often.

Skip to next paragraph Enlarge This Image Oli Scarff/Getty Images

A traditional pillar box, right, is still used for mail in London.

Enlarge This Image Mail for the World

Starting in 1840, Britain allowed letters to be sent anywhere in the country for as little as a penny.

In England in 1830, postage for letters was calculated not only by the number of sheets of paper but also by the number of miles traversed, and the recipient was the one who had to pay. For a person of ordinary means, a letter of middling length could come to about a day’s wages, a fearsome cost for the unfortunate household that received a letter.

But a decade or so later, when Britain and the United States introduced cheap, flat postal rates, without regard to the number of sheets or distance traveled, correspondents enjoyed something like our unmetered broadband today. Communication became more frequent, and ties were strengthened among families and friends. But cheap rates also led to junk mail and postal scams.

In Victorian London, though service wasn’t 24/7, it was close to 12/6. Home delivery routes would go by every house 12 times a day — yes, 12. In 1889, for example, the first delivery began about 7:30 a.m. and the last one at about 7:30 p.m. In major cities like Birmingham by the end of the century, home routes were run six times a day.

“In London, people complained if a letter didn’t arrive in a couple of hours,” said Catherine J. Golden, a professor of English at Skidmore College and author of “Posting It: The Victorian Revolution in Letter Writing” (2009).

And, not unlike us, most Victorian letter writers seemed more concerned about getting a rapid response than a long one. “Return of post” was an often-used phrase, requesting an immediate response, in time for the next scheduled delivery that day.

As any English major could tell you, the literary output of eminent Victorians was prodigious. Anthony Trollope, for example, wrote dozens of novels while working for the British post office, using the Victorian equivalent of a laptop computer: a portable writing desk. For his books, he didn’t stint on words: a modern reprint of “He Knew He Was Right,” with small type, runs 930 pages. But Ms. Golden said his letters tended to be brief and businesslike.

David M. Henkin, a history professor at the University of California, Berkeley, says that there has been “a distorted impression of how articulate or thoughtful 19th-century letter writers were — both American and British.”

“The historical letters we encounter were often written by famous, articulate people,” he added, “preserved by their recipients and selected for publication.”

When researching letters written by not-so-famous Americans, Mr. Henkin was struck by writing that was “prosaic, not poetic.”

In the early 1800s, before the postal reforms, Americans often sent letters that weren’t letters at all, but newspapers they had received in the mail and then resent to distant friends and family no fax payday loan. Postal rates favored the practice, as newspapers could be remailed in their entirety for about what a single-sheet letter would cost — and the sender was spared the obligation of writing an actual letter.

In 1840, The New Orleans Picayune tried to persuade its subscribers to buy gift subscriptions instead of remailing their own copies of the paper, gently scolding that when “you send your friend all the news in a printed journal you have a very fair excuse for being lazy with your pen.” (Online readers should feel perfectly free to send this column to friends.)

Postal service was democratized in Britain in 1839, with legislation that set a flat rate effective the next year and introduced the adhesive postage stamp, shifting the payment burden to the sender. For a penny, a letter of up to half an ounce could reach any destination in Britain. (Recipients could still do the paying, but that would cost 2 pence.)

The United States, like other countries, soon followed. In 1845 and 1851, Congress substantially reduced the cost of sending a letter and offered a steep discount for prepayment. But inexpensive postage didn’t spur people to send long, handwritten letters, so much as it enabled advertisers to spew out unsolicited junk mail on a mass scale. In 1855, according to Mr. Henkin, 30 or 40 mailbags filled with nothing but printed “circulars” for lotteries and patent medicines arrived daily at some post offices.

The same postal reforms that allowed family members and legitimate businesses to get in touch inexpensively also made it possible for cheats to do so, too. In the United States after the Civil War, a guide to New York City estimated that more than 2,000 “swindling establishments” were using the postal system, Mr. Henkin writes in “The Postal Age: The Emergence of Modern Communications in 19th-Century America” (2006).

These operators sent out “tens of thousands of solicitations and at minimal expense,” he writes. “Even a small percentage of replies from eager victims remitting a dollar or just a postage stamp could translate into a major windfall.” (Unused stamps could be resold or used in the next mailing and sometimes functioned as currency, he says.)

THE Victorians mailed all sorts of things besides words: tree cuttings, leeches, mosses and even manure, Ms. Golden writes. We could say that the only thing left for the modern correspondent to invent was the completely empty envelope — the Facebook “poke,” the sending of a greeting without saying so much as “hi.”

When one Facebook member clicks to “poke” another, of course, the receiver can poke back, returning the wordless greeting. Compared with a poke, even a brief e-mail message seems impressively articulate.

Randall Stross is an author based in Silicon Valley and a professor of business at San Jose State University. E-mail: stross@nytimes.com.

Digital Domain: The Birth of Cheap Communication (and Junk Mail)

[Via http://frenkinews.wordpress.com]