The last couple of days in the media have seen the usual retrospective look back at the year just gone and the forecasting of predictions of the year to come. Neither have made particularly pleasurable analysis. 2009 was the year that Ireland got its just desserts for the follies of the government, banks and property developers (and it has to be said, the general population who were also caught up in the credit party). 2010 is going to be more of the same, with the situation getting worse before it gets better.
Rather than summarise various different predictions, I thought I’d highlight one set from outside the mainstream media by economist Ronan Lyons which seems relatively realistic and are focused on 12 established monitoring measures. His predictions for 2010 are:
Number employed, i.e. full-time and part-time (not under-employed): 1.825m (compared to 1.925m in 2009 and 1.875m 2000-2007)
Redundancies: 60,000 (compared to 80,000 in 2009 and 20,000 on average, 2000-2007)
Net migration: -50,000 (compared to -7,800 in 2009 and +45,000, 2000-2007)
Unemployment: 14% (compared to 12% in 2009 and 4.4%, 2000-2007)
GDP growth: 0% (compared to -8% in 2009 and an average of 6%, 2000-2007)
GNP growth: -2% (compared to -11% in 2009 and an average of 5.4%, 2000-2007)
Ratio of GNP per capita in Ireland to EU15: -8.2% (compared to -3.7% in 2009 and 7%, 2000-2007)
Consumer price inflation: 1% (compared to -5.5% in 2009 and 4%, 2000-2007)
House price inflation: -15% (compared to -15% in 2009 and 9.4%, 2000-2007)
Rental inflation: -10% (compared to -16% in 2009 and 4.2%, 2000-2007)
House completions: 15,000 (compared to 25,000 in 2009 and 70,000, 2000-2007)
Car registrations: 100,000 (compared to 125,000 in 2009 and 170,000, 2000-2007)
From my perspective as a geographer, it would be interesting to consider the variations in these predicted figures for different parts of the country given the state of regional economies and their ability to weather the drivers of the recession. As we’ve noted on IAN there are significant differences in how the recession is playing out across the state at local and regional scales (for example, with respect to the live register, public sector pay, house prices and office rents, residential vacancy rates, cross-border shopping, County Leitrim). It looks like 2010 is going to be another year of significant economic and social re-adjustment, accompanied by some difficult political decisions.
BEIJING (Commodity Online): As the year nears to a close and 2010 is all set to shine, there is gold glittering in the Chinese landscape. There is a mad gold rush going on across China as people are on the streets, swarming gold jewellery shops to buy coins, bars and ornaments during an year-end shopping spree.
China is today the world’s largest gold market. China recently overtook India and emerged as the largest gold consumer in the world. The dragon land is the largest global gold producer.
In this following feature, China Daily reports on the ongoing gold rush in China:
“Gold jewelry sales jumped more than 30 percent over the weekend in Beijing, as bargain shoppers swarmed the city’s major jewelry stores on year-end promotions.
In a collective sales campaign after international gold prices fell, stores including Caibai, Gongmei and China Gold reduced the pure gold’s price by as much as 9 yuan per gram, with more Christmas-themed jewelry designs for shoppers to choose from.
According to the Beijing Morning Post, the China National Gold has doubled its sales to 40 kg per day. Caibai, the largest gold store in China, reported 30 percent more business than last year over the weekend after they drop the price from 278 yuan to 269 yuan per gram. Read the full article
Tom Ridge told Larry King, “I don’t think ( the failed-christmas-plane-bomber ) deserves the full range of protections of our criminal justice system embodied in the Constitution of the United States,” CNN, 12-29-09.
It bothers me that someone as influential as Tom Ridge would make such a suggestion. Surely the suspect should get all of the rights that our justice system ensures; who knows, maybe the failed-christmas-plane-bomber was forced to do what he did with a threat of violence to his family – it happens. A fair trial can determine if this is the situation.
However, it would be ideal if such a fair trial could be conducted by an international court which could have discovery authority in the various countries involved ( I think that the suspect is from Nigeria ).
Ridge’s comments sound too similar to the story where China tried a suspected British drug smuggler without due process ( qualified representation, etc ), and subsequently executed him;
Tom Ridge’s comments make our country look arrogant and unjust, which fuels an international bitterness towards us, which leads to more terrorists pursuits against us. Nevertheless, I appreciate his gung-ho attitude.
As I wait for my temporary job to begin in January 2010, I have found myself with the freedom to explore the web, as I never have before. I stumbled upon a white paper written by Professor Christopher Muller. Muller heads the Center for Multi-Unit Restaurant Management (CMURM) at the University of Central Florida’s Rosen School of Hospitality. The paper caught my interest and got me thinking how accurate was Muller’s prognostication of the restraint industry. My blog posting reviews his paper, “The Business of Restaurants: 2001 and beyond”, published by the International Journal of Hospitality Management.
http://www.box.net/shared/ivpkcu6nau
Christopher Muller makes the case that the future of the restaurant business is evolving from the traditional model to a knowledge-based system. The traditional model runs by controlling the activities necessary to running the business based on past events. Restaurants are adapting to the information and service orientation of today’s economy by acquiring information and using it as knowledge to make forward-looking decisions regarding their business.
The author analyzed the business environment in the late 1990’s and extrapolated the data to predict how the restaurant business would evolve into the next century. His source material supported his contention and the evidence in 2009 would validate his contention that successful restaurants would evolve away from the traditional business model.
Muller made three assumptions regarding the future of the restaurant business. The first being restaurants would identify themselves as custom retailers realized by identifying themselves as purveyors of time and customer experience. Walk into and successful restaurants and two characteristics will be the store strives to consistently meet your expectations with regard to the time spent in their store and the experience or feel that you have once inside their doors. Violate either one of these perceptions the customer has and the store either will lose the customer or the time before the next visit will be father out. I like going to the local Rosa’s café and have the expectation of good food at a low cost with little or no wait. The atmosphere is brisk yet inviting. If anything about my next experience is much different from my expectations, I will not go back to Rosa’s as soon as I might have.
The second point of branding and product differentiation is the most valid of Muller’s three presuppositions. Your store needs to be distinct from all the others either by-product, quality of product, price, and ambiance or feel. Subway has captured market share in the recession by advertising their value menu. Lunch for $5- in hard economic times was brilliant. Why go to Togo’s or Schlotzsky’s Deli when you get nearly the same quality for less. Many local restaurants popped up and died in our local area. My family and I tried a few of them one time only and never went back because they did not distinguish themselves in any tangible way.
Using data and information to drive your business forward is the wave of the future for all business. Implementation of knowledge systems will help with creating efficiencies in your business and surveys of your customers will help plan for the future. Data mining systems quite often are historical in nature and have not evolved to the point of consistently predicting future behavior. Knowledge systems are quite often using neutral or positive market data, which in a down market as if we are experience now could lead to costly mistakes. In my opinion, restaurants should use knowledge to make decisions but over reliance will stifle creativity and the ability to adapt quickly to changing environments.
The market for restaurants show Muller was mostly correct in his predictions. Stores need to create an identity and a distinct brand or their chance of long-term survival is small. Data is important for operations and making strategic decisions but Muller completely left out knowing your market and the economic conditions. Market can be implied in a knowledge-based business, yet a small business will have a distinct disadvantage if they follow Muller without consulting other sources. Service has become a defining point of all successful business and Muller again may have assumed it yet did not expand on it.
The Muller article is worthwhile and recommended reading for restaurant owners yet needs to be supplemented by other material for a more comprehensive view of the industry.
Apa Handphone yang paling nge-trend Sekarang? Blackberry? iPhone? Corby? Kalau saya melihat-lihat iklan di Korean, rata-rata iklan handphone sekarang menawarkan fasilitas di dunia mobile. Mulai Twitter, YM dan yang wajib ada Facebook. Handphone China sampai handphone rakitan Indonesia ramai-ramai menjajakan bentukan keypad Qwerty dan Facboook mobile. Tidak bisa dipungkiri, pengaruh ini dibawa oleh Blackberry yang dipopulerkan artis-artis dikala syuting sinetron. Dibungkus lapisan silicon warna-warni menarik hati, ramai-ramailah orang Indonesia –terutama wanita- mendambakan handphone ini. Juga merupakan Prestige saat anda mobile facebook-ing. Di status facebook terbaru anda saat meng-update akan tertera “………-via facebook for blackberry” atau “………-via facebook for iPhone”.
Tapi itu di Indonesia. Kalau di dunia? Atau Korea? Hmm.. LG crystal?
LG adalah perusahaan saingan Samsung yang juga sama-sama milik Korea yang juga mendedikasikan dirinya untuk menjadi brand handphone terbesar kedua di dunia. DUlu saya sudah pernah membahas Samsung yang sukses menjadi merek favorit di Chile, dam LG pun tak mau ketinggalan oleh saingannya ini.
LG sudah pernah sukses dalam usahanya mengusung handphone Black label; LG Chocolate dan juga LG Shine. Tak ketinggalan, LG juga bekerja sama dengan PRADA dan melahirkan LG Prada yang digilai dan sangat diidamkan wanita apalagi fashionholic yang ingin menjadikan LG Prada sebagai fashion statementnya.
Saya pertama kali mengetahui Luanching LG crystal yang mengusung slogan “World’s first TRANSPARENT phone” ini saat melihat di Blog follow saya di Bigbang fansite. Bigbang memang termasuk brand ambassador untuk LG. Bahkan mereka juga menyanyikan Soundtrack khusus LG Lollipop. Saya semakin jatuh cinta dengan LG Crystal begitu melihat official review handphone ini.
Dengan kondisi Korea yang rata-rata handphone zaman sekarangnya berbasis touchscreen, LG semakin menguatkan di Full gesture systemnya. Kalau di Indonesia yang popular adalah LG Cookie yang selalu dikomparasikan dengan Samsung Star.
LG crystal didesain untuk fashion-phone tapi juga didukung dengan performa IT yang dahsyaaat! Jika saya melihat perbandingan LG Cookie yang dibandingkan dengan Star masih lebih kuat performanya, saya percaya LG tidak hanya mengandalkan “tampangnya” saja.
Crystal disejajarkan dengan LG Arena dan LG viewty. Yang kedua pendahulunya ini termasuk sebagai best phone of LG. Walaupun termasuk ponsel full touch, Crytal berbentuk Sliding. Nah, Sliding belakangnya inilah yang transparan, LG menjulukinya Tempered Glass. Saat sliding keypadnya tak dibuka, HP ini terlihat nyaris sama dengan LG Arena dan viewty. Keypad ini jika diraba (dilihat pun kelihatan) hanya seperti kotak biasa yang tombolnya tidak timbul. Keypad ini touch-sensitive dan bisa digunakan untuk mengoperasikan semua control handphone. Keypad terlihat mewah namun simple dan lampu putihnya juga fleksibel untuk terlihat dimana-mana walaupun transparan. Hal ini dikarenakan pemilihan gradasi warna lampu yang bisa terlihat di media hitam, warna-warni atau putih sekalipun.
Handphone yang dibandrol Rp 8.000.000,00 jika dikurskan dengan mata uang kita in, memiliki gesture shortcut yang bisa dilakukan di keypad ajaibnya. Kalau misalnya di Handphone non-touchscreen pada umumnya adalah tombol kanan,atas,kiri,atau bawah (dan setahu saya di Star maupun Cookie belum ada kemampuan shortcut-ing) Crystal bisa shortcut dengan bentuk. Mau Kotak, hati, Lingkarang, Huruf sesuai imajinasi anda. Begitu pula dengan speed-dialing telepon yang biasanya hanya bisa jika menekan-lama suatu nomor di keypad. Sekarang anda nisa menelepon orang tersayang anda hanya dengan “menggambar” bentuk hati di keypad transparannya. Atau, anda ingin bentuk yang lain, tentu saja, bisa.
Fasilitas lain seperti various widget item dan juga LED effect seperti LG Lollipop juga termasuk fitur yang ditawarkan handphone ini. Anda termasuk “banci Kamera”? Kamera 3,0 MPixel tentu sudah memuaskan anda untuk mengabadikan momen anda. Yang unik, untuk zooming anda perlu meletakkan ibu jari dan telunjuk anda di keypad transparan dan menggerakkannya melebar atau menyempit. Salah satu fitur wajib ponsel Korea adalah TDMB. Dimana anda bisa menonton acara TV kesayangan anda di mana saja (sementara ini hanya ponsel cina yang popular mengusung fitur ini di Indonesia). Ponsel fashion ini juga mendukung anda untuk menonton film format DivX atau Xvid (biasanya format DVD). Anyway, apapun kecanggihan dan kelengkapan fitur yang dibawanya, Ponsel ini yang paling membuatnya special adalah YOU CAN SEE TRHOUGH ITS KEYPAD. Sebuah hal yang belum bisa anda dapatkan dari ponsel merek apapun jenis apapun selain LG crystal. Hal yang nyaris tidak mungkin, seperti melihat gigi ayam.
When asked whether the lightning rod Bachmann’s political views are “extremist,” 37 percent said yes and 54 percent said no. And when queried about whether the two-term congresswoman “is too liberal, too conservative, or about right,” 36 percent said “too conservative” while 56 percent said “about right.” (Bachmann herself must be wondering who the 8 percent are who think she’s too liberal).
“Michele Bachmann may constantly be generating controversy in the national news, but back at home she finds herself in a solid position politically,” concludes PPP in its analysis.
There’s one warning sign Bachmann will need to keep an eye on though. When asked if Bachmann “is more focused on advocating for your district in the US House or being a national leader in the conservative movement,” 48 percent said she’s more focused on being a national conservative leader, compared to 32 percent who said she is more focused on her St. Cloud and exurban Twin Cities-based district. Twenty percent were not sure.
For full story: http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/1209/Poll_Bachmann_in_a_solid_position_politically.html
I know with all the hustle and bustle of the holidays and spending in this economy can be a mess in its self! So I know everyone wants to look good, but not able to splurge all the time on professional brand products. Here are some that I recommend that are budget friendly especially for you out there for under $20.00!
*Not in any particular order*
1. NYX – 5 Color Palette Eyeshadow/5 in one (Shown as 7.99)
2. Maybelline – Lip Liner (Shown as 1.99)
3. Cover Girl - Loose Powder (Shown as 5.89)
4. L’Oreal – Colour Juice Lipgloss (Shown as 7.99)
9. Physicians Formula- 100% Natural Origin Bronzer (Shown as 13.99)
10. Studio Gear – Hidden Agenda Concealer (Shown as 15.00)
You should be able to find with these brands on a budget everything you need for your face. Just make sure if you have questions about the right color for you, ask someone at the makeup counter. In the case, of example if you go to Ulta (where I found these prices, but subject to change at all times) or Sephora make sure to ask an associate because that is what they get paid to do. So there is no excuse not to take care of your appearance, even if you just have to throw on a little powder and a little gloss on the go!
A tryenta ng Disyembre ng binaril ng mga guardia sibil si Rizal na naging hudyat naman ng himagsikan sa bansa. Hindi man ganap na nakamit natin ang kalayaan ay naging daan naman ito upang magkaisa ang karamihan sa mga Pilipino at naitatag nga ang Unang Republika ng Pilipinas. Iyong nga lamang ay naudlot dahit muli tayong sinakop ng mga Amerikano. Dumating ang pangalawang digmaan at sinakop naman tayo ng mga Hapon. Muling nagkaisa at nakipaglaban ang mga dakila nating sundalo at gerilyerong Pinoy. Napatalsik ang Imperyo ng Hapon sa Pilipinas sa tulong na rin ng mga Amerikano. Nakamtan natin ang kalayaan noong July 4, 1946 mula sa Estados Unidos at tayo’y naging isang malayang bansa ng Asia.
Ngayon at tayo’y malaya na bilang isang bansa ay katakot-takot naman problema ang ating hinaharap dahil na rin sa hindi magandang pamumuno sa gobierno at ang di pagkakaisa ng mga Pilipino dahil na rin sa ideolohiya at pulitika ng bansa. Gayon pa man kahit sabihin nilang “run like hell” ang ating bansa mas maigi pa rin kaysa tayo’y Kolonya ng makapangyarihang Amerika. Bagamat ganon ang ating sinasabi, sa hirap ng buhay ngayon sino nga ba ang ayaw manirahan sa Amerika?
Maganda ang pangarap ni Rizal para sa bansang ito kaya kanyang isinakripisyo ang sariling buhay. Ngunit hanggang kailan kaya tayo na maghihintay upang mabuo ang pangarap ng ating dakilang bayani?
LOS ANGELES — The Ronald Reagan U.C.L.A. Medical Center, one of the nation’s most highly regarded academic hospitals, has earned a reputation as a place where doctors will go to virtually any length and expense to try to save a patient’s life.
Skip to next paragraph Months to Live Excellence or Excess?
This series is examining the promises and challenges of extending, or ending, the lives of very ill patients.
Previous Article: Sisters Face Death With Dignity and Reverence
According to a news release on December 22, 2009 from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), U. S. home prices increased 0.6% from September to October on a seasonally adjusted basis. For the 12 months ending in October, prices fell only -1.9%.
Year to date, the price index is virtually flat at +0.10% over the first 10 months of the year, an annual increase of only +0.12%. Home prices fell in only 4 of the 10 months reported so far this year.
If you are into predictions, we should see the first year-over-year price increase in the FHFA report during this recovery cycle in next month’s report, because almost the entire -1.9% drop in year-over-year prices occurred between October and November of 2008. And the October decrease will drop out of the calculation in next month’s report, giving us a decent shot at a year-over-year gain.
So, fasten your seat belts. You are about to enter the world of housing-price increases. Consumer confidence will rise, as will retail sales and GDP.
I have strong feelings about this kind of things. Damn it. People have a God-given right to work and NOBODY, not even high and mighty corporations, should get in the way of that. Include non-competes, and so-called “trade secret” laws in this mess. My opinion of Verizon just went to ZERO.
Furthermore, there are going to be THOUSANDS of unemployed Altell people in Little Rock. If they were so damned irreplacable and sensitive, then – DAMN IT – Verison should not have fired them.
Verizon Sues Ex-Alltel Employee Over New Job with Allied – ArkansasBusiness.com.
The Secretary General of the United Nations is being very clear what it will take to implement a climate change treaty: ”We will establish a global governance structure to monitor and manage the implementation of this.”
The U.S. Constitution states that the president cannot sign treaties without the approval of two-thirds of the Senate. Is Barack Obamaabout to violate the Constitution by signing a treaty in Copenhagen?
Are the Russians suggesting that the entire global temperature record used by the IPCC to inform world government policy is a crock?
La crisis puso a prueba al magnate ruso Oleg Deripaska, de 41 años, que por haber sido uno de los más arriesgados fue también uno de los más castigados cuando se desplomaron la industria del aluminio, la construcción y el automóvil, alguno de los sectores de su imperio Basic Element (Basel), con más de 250.000 personas en plantilla. De ser la primera fortuna del país en 2008, según el baremo de Forbes, que le atribuía 28.000 millones de dólares, Deripaska se deslizó hasta el puesto décimo, de resultas de la compra del 25% de Norilsk Nikel por 13.000 millones de dólares, justo antes de que esta empresa minera -la mejor de Rusia- se hundiera en Bolsa. Los pronósticos de bancarrota no se confirmaron. Al contrario. El empresario fue socorrido por el Estado con un préstamo de 4.500 millones de dólares, redujo sus ambiciosos planes de compra y ha logrado un acuerdo para reestructurar 7.400 millones de dólares de deuda con los bancos internacionales. Mientras, el valor de Norilsk Nikel remonta y el empresario Deripaska, más seguro y con una situación financiera más estable, planea la salida de Rusal, la primera empresa de aluminio del mundo, a la Bolsa de Hong Kong.
via “El mundo occidental será otro en siete años” · ELPAÍS.com.
The Heritage Foundation has an excellent post concerning exactly how the Senate’s healthcare bill will actually add to the federal budget deficit. The post states the following:
According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the amended Reid plan would reduce the federal budget deficit by $132 billion over the period 2010 to 2019, but that is a mirage.
For starters, as CBO notes, the bill presumes that Medicare fees for physician services will get cut by more than 20 percent in 2011, and then stay at the reduced level indefinitely. There is strong bipartisan opposition to such cuts. Fixing that problem alone will cost more than $200 billion over a decade, pushing the Reid plan from the black and into a deep red.
Then there are the numerous budget gimmicks and implausible spending reductions. The plan’s taxes and spending cuts kick in right away, while the entitlement expansion doesn’t start in earnest until 2014, and even then the real spending doesn’t begin until 2015. According to CBO, from 2010 to 2014, the bill would cut the federal budget deficit by $124 billion. From that point on, it’s essentially deficit neutral — but that’s only because of unrealistic assumptions about tax and Medicare savings provisions. By 2019, the entitlement expansions to cover more people with insurance will cost nearly $200 billion per year, and grow every year thereafter at a rate of 8 percent. CBO says that, on paper, the tax increases and Medicare cuts will more than keep up, but, in reality, they won’t. The so-called tax on high cost insurance plans applies to policies with premiums exceeding certain thresholds (for instance, $23,000 for family coverage). But those thresholds would be indexed at rates that are less than health-care inflation — forever. And so, over time, more and more plans, and their enrollees, would bump up against it until virtually the entire U.S. population is enrolled in insurance that is considered “high cost.”
Similarly, the Medicare cuts assume that hospitals, nursing homes, home health agencies and others can survive with a permanent annual cut in their payment rates for presumed productivity gains. Medicare’s chief actuary has already signaled that this reduction could push one in five hospitals into insolvency, thus forcing them out of the Medicare program.
What’s more, the benefit promises are sure to expand well beyond what CBO has assumed. There are 127 million people living in households with incomes between 100 and 400 percent of the federal poverty line, but CBO assumes that only 18 million of them will get the new subsidized insurance under the Reid plan by 2015 because of rules that make most workers ineligible for assistance. But, if enacted, employers would find ways to push more workers into subsidized arrangements, and Congress would loosen the rules to make more people eligible. Costs would grow much faster than CBO currently projects. In addition, the Reid plan continues to include a new entitlement program for long-term care that every actuary who has looked at it says is a financial disaster waiting to happen. If passed, it would only be a matter of time before another federal bailout would be necessary.
FRANKFURT — U.K.-based oil giant BP was upgraded to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs on the back of increased earnings estimates. In a note dated Thursday, Goldman also downgraded France’s Total SA to sell from neutral, citing the relatively expensive valuation and the average future growth profile. The broker downgraded Norwegian oil company Statoil to neutral from buy and removed it from its conviction list, saying that 2010 is likely to be a year of poor production growth. Spanish oil company Repsol YPF was also downgraded to sell from neutral after its the strong performance, due to unattractive exposure to downstream. Goldman also said the company’s exceptional performance in exploration over the past two years is fully priced in.
“Unemployment is falling,” screams the headline at CNN’s business webpage. A couple of quarters of GDP growth, assurances from officials that the worst is behind us, and promising data on unemployment have some people betting that this sharp recession is past it’s bottom, and we’ll see a return to growth, perhaps fully recovered by 2012. The dollar is even of its lows, jumping from about $1.52 per Euro a couple weeks ago to $1.43 today. Maybe, just maybe, things are getting better.
I hate to throw cold water on this optimism, but unless structural problems are addressed, any recovery will be short lived. It’s being driven by the stimulus package and increased debt. That in and of itself isn’t bad — the point of the stimulus was to spur on growth, and it seems to be working. But, as I pointed out a month ago this crisis is in many ways worse than the Great Depression. Ben Bernacke, whose academic work focused on the Great Depression, handled this crisis the way he and others no doubt believe could have prevented the Great Depression after the stock market crash. He was probably right. Quick action to reinvigorate the financial sectors and stimulate the economy is having a growing impact. By the middle of next year those cursing Obama and Bernacke now may well be singing their praises. Yet the crisis is no where close to over.
Remember, back in the eighties the Reagan Administration restimulated the economy through debt and government spending, leading to an illusion of prosperity (‘it’s morning in America,’) but built on a foundation of sand. The manufacturing sector was dying and the prosperity was paid for by debt and increased trade deficits. This helped inspire a stock bubble in the 90s, and the hyper-stimulation of the economy after 9-11 fueled a real estate bubble. But each bubble burst. Only a recovery that rebalances the economy — keeps our current account in balance and ultimately works to pay down debt, at least as a percentage of GDP — can be sustained.
And again — with the baby boomers about to retire and start withdrawing from rather than paying into the social security system, medicare system, 401K plans, etc., the strain on the economy will grow. This suggests to me that it will be virtually impossible to ride yet another bubble or simply get back on track. Yet things can get better.
I’ve come to the conclusion that an increase in the government’s role in the economy will be necessary to fix this. Yet it can’t be something like bureaucratic socialism or an emphasis on government re-distribution of wealth. Rather, the government will have to create conditions conducive for economic growth and structural change. I do not believe the market can do this on its own, markets are not magic.
To libertarian minded readers who haven’t already clicked in disgust to some other website, I understand the danger. Big government is inherently dangerous. Governments wage wars, can stagnate the economy, and deny individual liberty. However, without governments, markets give in to massive corruption and organized crime. In this case governmental action caused the problem in a weird mix of too much government in terms of debt and spending, and too little in terms of regulation. The result was a massive redistribution of wealth from the poor to the rich (the gap between the two is larger than ever since the 19th century), lack of regulative oversight over the financial sector, and an internationalization of capital that increased human exploitation and suffering.
To fix this, we have to embrace a few principles: a) credit is good, but high debt to GDP ratios are bad; b) the current account should stay within 2 or 3% of staying in balance; c) private debt needs to be offset by higher saving rates and reasonable regulations on credit (especially credit cards); and d) net worth in terms of wealth is not the same as savings.
Specific policies:
a) Balance the budget through spending cuts, tax increases or (more likely) a mix of both. This should start within a year, after a recovery begins to take off (timing it will be tough — you can’t start taxing more and spending less too early, that could also damage the recovery);
b) support through tax credits and even direct grants investment and R&D into productive businesses, especially those which align with our comparative advantage. These include technology (especially green technology), alternate energy sources, and niche production. Local farming and production should be aided too. No help should go to service sector sources, as we have to shift towards production to get the current account in balance;
c) Engage in a massive overhaul of entitlements to assure they are viable for the influx of boomers retiring. This may require means testing for social security, and a health care overhaul to assure the long term viability of medicare.
d) Health care reform must be expanded to cut costs through rationing care (based on need, not wealth), limiting payment to physicians, and dramatically curtailing support for prescription drugs; and
e) US Defense spending needs to be cut dramatically, with a shift away from being a “global power” towards being able to defend the country from external attack. This means considering a withdrawal from NATO, a realist tripartite policy of working for stability with China and Russia, and removal of forces from Afghanistan and Iraq.
Moreover, the financial sector must not only be regulated, but the international system needs a “new Bretton Woods.” The old Bretton Woods system, named after a resort in New Hampshire where top world economists met in July 1944 to start planning the post-war economy, was a success. It engineered a shift towards freer trade, a stable monetary policy (fixed exchange rates pegged to a gold backed dollar until 1971), and functioning international organizations such as the World Bank and IMF. However, globalization and the internationalization of capital have rendered this system obsolete. Globalization has altered and weakened state sovereignty to the point that international regulations need to be stronger; states no longer are able to reign in “big money” on the world stage.
This organization will have to effectively create rules to regulate credit markets, provide environmental standards, aid in technology transfers to the third world, promote stable monetary policies (perhaps replacing the dollar with a new global ‘currency of last resort’) and rules on trade. Free trade is the backbone of a global market economy, and capitalism does not function well without regulation and rule of law — history has taught us that much. Part of the problem now is that with globalization the old regulation regimes are no longer adequate. Another problem is that big business has so much power in the political systems of the industrialized West that regulation is resisted. Even Social Democrats in Europe have embraced market capitalism and a partnership with big business. Yet that government – business axis has created a different kind of monster, and unless we can defeat it, long term economic stability is unlikely.
We can prepare to move to a smaller carbon footprint, a new high tech energy society, a new generation of prosperity and production, and the ability to move ‘beyond oil’ as the backbone of the economy. To do so, we need to first get government out of bed with business (they’re doing nasty kinky things) and then to undertake a rational policy of targeted budget cuts, tax increases, investments in business/R&G and global regime building. Otherwise, we can probably have a “fools paradise” of apparent economic recovery until maybe 2015 or so, but it can’t last.
Finally, none of this will work unless people move away from being focused on consumerism and material stuff, and recognize the importance of family, community, and values. The policies and debt are symptoms of a deeper cultural problem, and if we don’t change that, we won’t have the will to do what is necessary for the future.
First they came for the banksters, and showered them with money and put them in the Administration in a way that was not change we could believe in.
Then they came for the military industrial complex, and sent more and more of our children to die in faraway lands that had never attacked us in a way that was not change we could believe in.
And now they’ve sold out our hope for a national health care system not run by millionaire gangsters in suits. And who is left to speak for us?
President Obama is playing the Bill Clinton game of throwing people a bone and telling them it’s steak. Perhaps he’s doing it because he thinks it’s his only choice; perhaps it’s because he’s surrounded himself with Bill Clinton advisors (and Hillary as Secretary of State); whatever the reason, while it worked for Clinton, it won’t work for Obama.
It worked for Reagan, and for the first Bush, and even worked somewhat for George W. Bush.
But it won’t work anymore. Here’s why.
From 1929 until the 1980s, most Americans were “high information voters.” They were paying attention to politics. The Republican Great Depression of 1929-1938, World War II, the Korean War, Kennedy’s election, and the War in Vietnam were all Big Events that caused Americans to pay attention. Americans of that era needed to know what was up in Washington, DC, because they felt the consequences directly.
We got our out date today. We’re to be booted out of here by December 28th. Not even before until the end of the year are we welcome. I’m worried…I’m worried our car won’t be up and running before we’re put out. It broke down while we were here and now I’m worried we’ll be put out before the car can be fixed. What I don’t understand is why, if my mother’s willing to work, and is looking for a job, why can’t they at least try to help us before we go. But that’s not important to them, what’s important is getting us out before the new year to have a whole new set of people before the new year so they can get more money. Like I said before, I’m not a person here, here I’m not much more than a lump in their bed.
So what’s going to happen on December 28th? Where are we going to go? What’s going to happen with my school?
I think what makes me the most unsettled is we’ve only been here like a month. The other girl my age has been here since August, and her and her mom’s out date is in February. The other girl around my age’s out date is also just around the corner. Her out date is the 2nd of January. On top of all this, a woman, who looks to be around 80 or so, was just offered a choice of two houses. So let’s kick the women with the children into the streets and hope they have a place to go, but the little old lady, WHO, by the way, has been stealing drinks from everyone else’s soda’s, needs a place now. Sounds right to me!
Yeah.
No.
They also were giving out gifts to the mothers to give to their children. You know what they told my mother I should have? Felt color in pictures. Yeah. That sounds age appropriate for a 14 going on 15-year-old. An artist at that. Not that I don’t appreciate the idea of giving and all, and am thankful for the thought, I’d have really enjoyed an empty sketch book on the other hand. So I gave it to the little girl in the bed next to me.
Now I’d like to say, for the record, there are things I’m thankful for this Holiday season. My mother, she’s been doing the best she can with nothing. I’m thankful for my friends, as far away as they may be they’re occasionally still there when I need them. A bed to sleep in. Getting into that nice school. Having my good health, and so on and so forth, I don’t take for granted anything good in my life. Not only that but I realize things could be a lot worst. especially since we’re looking at life in Africa, which if you place my life story next to a child in Africa’s I still seem spoiled. I don’t take for granted the fact that I still, despite everything, have a great life.
I’m just wishing for life to be a little better. I know that once I get a home…I’ll never take it for granted again. Because the hardest thing about living in here is I just wanna go home…where ever that may be…but that’s not an option right now.
December 15, 2009—(MCT)—Interest rates on the benchmark 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage dipped to a 38-year low recently, giving consumers another reason to consider purchasing a home or refinancing their current one.
Freddie Mac recently stated the average rate on a 30-year loan was 4.71% with an average 0.7 point, the lowest rate since the agency began its weekly tracking of long-term interest rates in 1971. A point is equal to 1% of the loan amount, payable as a lump sum at closing. While the decline wasn’t overly dramatic, the dip is likely to get people wondering whether it’s time to sign on the dotted line.
The 5 following questions may help you decide if now is the time to go ahead and purchase a home or refinance your current home.
Q: Why are rates so low?
A: Since early January, the Federal Reserve has been purchasing mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae in an effort to stabilize the housing market by making homes more affordable for consumers. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which is managing the program, plans on purchasing $1.25 trillion of securities.
Q: Are rates expected stay this low?
(… Click link below for the rest of the article)
via 5 Questions to Consider Before Purchasing a Home | RISMedia.
So many of you are getting on me: “Steve – What does this mean for us? You’re saying a lot of crazy shit – what can I do about it?”
Well, here’s the deal: most of the shit is going to come down on us whether or not we do anything ourselves, or even as a nation, or world… Climate change and peak oil aren’t things that you and I can do anything about. We can’t stop them and we cant hide from them.
Ok, then is it really that bad?
I hope not, because I think that what we are in is a decline, rather than a collapse.
“Decline”, tho it sounds bad, is actually good. It will give us time to adjust to the new reality. Collapse is a very real possibility – that means that once oil prices shoot to the moon, then we have only a slim window to deal with that.
To deal with decline – here’s what I’m doing:
Teaching Dew (my son) that conservation is smart, and intelligent awareness is key – and telling him the truth about things – I know my sensitive friends will say I shouldn’t burden a child, but I believe in reality;
No new debt at all – Santa’s sleigh is going to be light this year to ensure that “all the kids of the world can get something”;
We have no credit card debt;
We are paying off our house by making extra mortgage payments – it is no exaggeration the importance of a debt free roof over your head in years to come – you may be the life boat that someone needs one day;
We’ve bought good bikes – and I ride mine everywhere now….it’s fun, saves, money and energy, and makes me healthier – can driving a fucking car say that?
Get in shape – it takes no money: I do 100 push ups, 100 sit-ups and 140 ten-pound weight reps every day in my house – and I still drink, and stay up late….so I aint sayin I’m better than you;
Use less energy – “lights out until dark”; faucet off when brushing; 64 is toasty at night;
Cash, cash , cash – the “market” is rigged – and I’m not smart enough to figure it out – get out now if you are in – we’ve reached a high and a bust is coming
Make yourself aware: Google provides the most freedom that anyone on earth has ever had, and still we are sheep. Google this shit – find out what’s happening – educate yourself! The internet has come along at exactly the right time – we can learn for ourselves what is going on. In this day there is no excuse for being stupid.
At least ask where your food comes from – it may not make any changes, but it sure does make you aware…
There’s some other shit we are doing, but basically we are toast if collapse happens. I believe it wont if we start now. But it could….frowny face….:_(
The Financial Press is busy crowing over the loss estimates for the Paulson Bailout, claiming that losses have been “cut” by $200 Billion dollars. Of course, this still leaves $500 Billion unaccounted for, but standards for good news have fallen to the extent that a $500 billion loss is considered a ray of hope.
Unfortunately, we will be spared even that brief ray. Research from ProPublica conclusively debunks the claim that TARP losses have been mitigated, if only for the fact that the program has not yet finished.
As they say:
The latest estimate accounts for only the first year of spending, and the TARP’s spending isn’t done. Treasury says it expects the ultimate cost to be higher. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner extended [8] the TARP thru Oct. 3, 2010, the TARP’s second birthday, earlier this week. He said, though, that Treasury didn’t expect to deploy more than $550 billion of the $700 billion available. As of today, Treasury has committed a total of about $407.3 billion [2] (that’s excluding companies that have refunded their bailout money [6]).
The TARP still has a little less than half its funds to distribute; meanwhile bank failures haven’t even begun to slow (three more failed this Friday, bringing the total to 167 this year), and unemployment still hovers around 17-20 per cent. It seems a bit premature to be declaring victory for the TARP.
I have been looking forward to telling my readers about our client Coyuchi.com ever since we were first approached to develop their Web store. The new store launched just last month. The story is about how the Internet enables a boutique style, socially conscious store, located in a quaint California coastal town, to reach beyond the foot traffic of people getting away from the city for the day.
Coyuchi sells organic cotton products including linens and clothing that are produced following the best practices for certified organic and fair trade products. You can read more about them on their Web site here.
We have a set of Coyuchi organic sheets for our bedroom and we love them. My wife is a serious linen shopper. The bed is always covered with the softest cotton sheets and a warm down comforter in natural patterns. We live in downtown Napa and our bedroom looks out at green hills and, right now, red and yellow colored maple trees. Every morning we share a cup of fresh ground brew in bed with our dog Huck at our feet. Getting the picture that the quality of the sheets is a big deal?
Socially conscious living is important to us and to Open Mountain. Here’s a post about company efforts to be more green. Finding a company like Coyuchi is such a score because it allows us to be eco-friendly without necessarily sacrificing creature comforts. Sure, we’ll make compromises to support the environment. Give up our morning coffee experience? That’s a tough call and I am glad I now don’t have to make it.
Coyuchi could make a small profit catering to locals and out-of-town guests visiting Pt Reyes on the Northern California coast. The store is an hour or two drive from San Francisco and the town has an eco-friendly feel to it. Two things happened that set Coyuchi on a different course.
First, people started to care about the planet. They started to recognize that irresponsible consumption could have serious consequences in the not so distant future. Second, the Internet provided a means to share information. The availability of global information brought communities together and informed them about what was happening in the world. We’re all much more connected now and I think we can agree this has been a positive change.
Coyuchi uses the Internet to expand their reach, sell to even more customers and increase their revenue. They provide a nice solution for people looking for quality in their linen that also want to support the environment in a socially responsible way. Best of all, I can tell my sister in New York or family in Los Angeles about the company just in time for Christmas (wink wink nudge nudge). This is exactly what the Internet was supposed to be about among other things.
The new Web store looks great. The design is clean and friendly. We built the site on top of the open source products osCommerce for e-commerce and Joomla for content management. Using open source tools fit with the spirit of the project while also providing a cost-effective way to launch an online store without re-inventing the wheel. In truth, we prefer to use open source tools as much as possible so long as we can meet the needs of our customers.
You’ll have to see for yourself what you think of the result. The store is live now at Coyuchi.com. As for the sheets, I can only tell you that we are very satisfied customers and we look forward to more and more products coming online. Until then, I’m off to my post-morning, pre-lunch nap on my comfy organic sheets. Huck, hey Huck, time for a nap…
Once upon a Time home ownership was goal of many Americans. But for some homeowners the American Dream turned into nightmare.These homes which lost more than half its value has placed their former owners into default and eventual foreclosure.
Now for some the nightmare is over and they discover there is life after foreclosure and it’s not all bad.
Introducing Shana Richey. She and her husband once were homeowners on Caspian Dr. in Palmdale,CA in the golf course community of Rancho Vista Country Club. The Richey’s were not members of the golf club. However, they lived ok. But house lost value and they were soon underwater. The Richey’s defaulted and since sold the home to the bank.
Today, Shana Richey is not beholden to a mortgage and ironically they moved larger home in the same neighborhood. The rent on the current home is about half of what her mortgage was.
“It’s just a better life. It really is,” says Ms. Richey. Before defaulting on her mortgage, she owed about $230,000 more than the home was worth.
As a renter, this allows the Richey’s to do things that they have not done for years including season passes to Disneyland. She is taking her family on a cruise to Mexico.
I live in Michigan, and our legislators just passed a state-wide smoking ban, which is going to be put into effect this May. Once in effect, all businesses, including bars and casinos (excluding those owned by Native-Americans), will be required by law to be smoke-free.
I’m just going to say it like it is.
This law is bull.
First, smoking is something I am doing to my own body (I’ll get to second-hand in a bit). You obviously feel strongly about people having the right to do what they want to their own bodies, because it is perfectly legal in this state to have an abortion. And I’m not saying anything negative towards the pro-choice stance. I’m actually arguing for a choice of my own right here. I also understand that you’re not outlawing cigarettes altogether, but you’ve been trying to stop us through taxes like mad over the last few years. They’re around $6.50 a pack now, which is like what, $1.75 to the cigarette company and $4.75 to you? Did that plan not prove effective enough, so you just decided to go for the jugular and ban them?
Moreover, there are already laws keeping smokers away from doorways and the like. What is it, 25 feet or something? I’m going to go off on a bit of a tangent here, because I would love to see some neutral third party perform a scientific test on this. What I’m talking about, is how quickly cigarette smoke dissipates into the air. As we know, gas is the most exited state of matter found on earth, and because of this, it’s particles move at an incredibly fast velocity. If I’m outside, surrounded by the massive ocean of air that surrounds our planet, how long does my puff take to be diluted into some infinitesimally small, worthless amount. Also, because I have a brain, I try at all times to be aware of others around me, and act as a polite smoker should. I respect other people’s rights to do things I don’t like. Please respect mine. But being inside is, of course, a whole different story.
And here we hit the meat of the issue, the only places where smoking inside is still permitted, besides our homes, is privately owned businesses: bars, restaurants, casinos, etc. Now, we have to understand that there are bars and restaurants which are entirely non-smoking. Almost all restaurants which allow smoking have designated smoking and non-smoking sections, and it’s pretty safe to assume they also have some system of air circulation.
And here we reach the only point you have: But what about the people who work in these places? I agree, this is a sticky issue. The only little thing I have in my defence, is that almost everyone I know who works at a bar, either smokes or is indifferent. The people who hate smoke that much are not the type to apply for a job at a bar. Moreover, I’m not sure those that do are willing to lose the paying customers who do smoke.
But the biggest, biggest problem with this, is the effect it’s going to have on our economy. How many years now has Michigan had the worst or second/third worst economy in the country? It’s been awful, and it keeps getting worse. We never meet our state budget, we need to make more cuts all the time. But for some reason you decide to pull this on us now? What are you thinking? Do you really think it’s going bring a bunch of closet smoke-haters into the bars and restaurants? Have you ever even been to a bar? You are alienating their main demographic and then crossing your fingers that other (better, non-smoking) people will rejoice and flood the place!
The restaurant industry is pretty much all we have left in this state! Why don’t you take this risk once we regain at least a semi-stable economy. Do you not know that your actions have repercussions? I bet you saw some study of one business that did this and got more customers, and latched onto that as the truth because it fits in with your ideology. Which, by the way, has done us a heck of a lot of good so far…
Please, we can choose what’s best for ourselves. Don’t be a fascist, we enjoy our freedom.
At this social function in Male, capital of Maldives, everyone was sipping soft drinks, coke, fanta, soda and what not. In this Islamic Republic, liquor is a taboo, but not tobacco. So, many were enjoying their cigarettes competing to fill the air with circles of smoke.
I was introduced to this gentleman who was described as a leading businessman by my host. When the host said that he owned several islands and resorts, my eyes instantly became awe-stricken. He neither smoked nor sipped coke, as many others had been doing in that hall. He was simply sipping mineral water from a glass he held in his hand.
I tried to strike a conversation with him, but he appeared to be suspicious of strangers. It took some time for me to win his trust. Once a bond was sealed between us, he became quite open and poured out his thoughts freely.
‘How is business these days?’ I asked him. He nodded his head to indicate his unhappiness.
Dollar shortage and the black market in dollars
‘No cash. We’re all stuck. No dollars in the market’. His voice wa a little indignant.
‘Why is it?’ I asked him innocently.
He cast a surprised look at me as if I had asked a stupid question. Then, he realised that I was a visitor and could not be privy to all that had happened there recently.
‘Why, after the Tsunami of 2004, we didn’t have a good time at all. Tourism, the main foreign exchange earner, was at the lowest,’ he said.
‘Then came the global economic crunch and the commodity inflation. It created a foreign exchange crisis on the external front and a budget crisis on the domestic front. Our currency, Rufiyaa, is under pressure for depreciation, but that is not allowed to happen, because of the fear that it would increase cost of living. It has therefore exacerbated the dollar shortage’
‘But the banks should get dollars from the market. Shouldn’t they?’ I asked.
A smirk appeared on his face, but he managed to hide it quickly.
‘The official rate for Rufiyaa is 12.75 for the dollar. No one sells dollars at that rate. Because of the shortage of dollars, a thriving black market has sprung up. At the curb market, dollar is traded at 14.50. A premium of nearly 14 percent! So, everyone sells the little dollars they have got at the curb market’ He explained.
Whether or not to have exchange controls?
‘Surely, the government can control it. Don’t you have exchange controls?’
‘Unlike you guys in Sri Lanka, we don’t have an exchange control act. So, the government cannot prevent it. The other day, somebody told me that he had 200,000 dollars for sale at 14.50. He wanted to know whether I wanted to buy it. I said no. Then, in the afternoon, one of my business partners wanted some half a million dollars. When I went back to that guy with dollars, he had already sold it. See how quickly the market has settled’
‘Then, you should bring in exchange controls’ I suggested to him.
Now his smirk became wider. I knew that I had uttered a stupid suggestion for the second time that evening.
‘I will tell you a story’ he said conspiratorially. He would have had a guilty feeling that his smirking face might have embarrassed me.
Controls create illegal business opportunities
‘I started my career as a skipper in a small sail vessel that sailed between Male and Colombo in early 1970s,’ he began
‘They were large wooden boats that depended on winds to sail. So, it took about a week to reach Colombo and another week to come back to Male. Our hold was officially full of dry fish and Maldive fish which were in short supply in Sri Lanka, because you had a chronic as well as an acute foreign exchange shortage. So, you had the strictest exchange controls in whole of your history at that time’
His story became interesting, because it was about an era in which everyone believed that exchange controls were desirable and necessary. Even today, many have nostalgic memories about such controls and advocate the same as a solution for current problems.
‘We anchor in Colombo harbour and report to both customs and exchange control of the merchandise in the hold. The officials from exchange control visit the vessel, inspect the goods and open an account in their books in the name of the vessel. The value of the merchandise is credited to that account. Then, we sell dry fish andMaldive fish to traders in Pettah, and buy from them soap, lakspray, sugar, cement and other dry foods’.
He stopped for a while and sipped some water.
Then he started again. ‘It’s pure barter, selling goods for goods, because both our countries didn’t have foreign exchange to pay. Whatever we buy, it is debited to the account opened at the exchange control. At the end of the trade, the net balance, whether it is in our favour or your country’s favour, is settled in dollars. But, very often, the two sides balance and neither party has to pay anything. After that, the exchange control closes the account’.
This was a revelation and I was listening to him with awe-stricken eyes.
‘You would have made millions out of that trade’ I exclaimed.
‘What nonsense!’ he corrected me. ‘We made money, not out of that legitimate trade. We made money through smuggling we had been engaged in. Our dry fish trade was only a cover to hide the actual trade we did. We were smuggling practically every good which your country had banned at that time under exchange and import controls. We were buying them from Singapore and smuggling into Colombo. Saris, wrist watches, electrical items, radios, and every thing. The Pettah traders bought them from us and paid us in Dollars which your banking system did not have. We made good money at both ends. We sold those dollars back at home at the black market prices’
‘But, how did you do it without being caught by customs and exchange controls?’
This time too, I displayed my innocence of not knowing how these controls actually worked.
Public Servants Gain Out of Controls
He let out a spontaneous laugh at my naivety.
‘Both your customs and exchange control were in our pay list. They knew every thing we did’
‘But, what about Singapore? Surely, they wouldn’t have approved of your smuggling business?’ I asked.
‘Singapore did it knowingly, because they could profit out of your strictest exchange controls. You see, your exchange controls benefited us, benefited Singapore, and benefited Pettah traders. It also benefited customs and exchange control officials too. Only your government lost, because it did not get the planned revenue from import duties which at that time was a significant source of government’s revenue’
‘Did you continue that smuggling business for long?’ I asked him.
‘No. Your next government liberalised exchange and import controls. So, the profit opportunity which we had under exchange controls simply disappeared. Our profits, that is, what we earned, what Pettah traders earned and what government officials earned, were accrued to the government in the form of higher import duties. We had to do new legitimate business to make money after that’ He finally said.
The moral of the story?
After his revelation, I reflected for many days upon everything he said to understand the moral of his story. Then, all of a sudden, the hard economic facts dawned on me.
Government controls are loved by people who stand to make money out of such controls. The list is long, but could be narrowed to the following: government officials, crooked traders, politicians, smugglers and law enforcement officials.
Governments resort to controls out of desperation. But, markets are smarter and always come up with ingenious schemes to outwit controls. All systems then get together to make a killing and even the countries out there join the net. The result of all this is the establishment of an enormously powerful underground economy.
The initial solution for the governments would have been a simple one like adjusting the exchange rate to suit the ground realities. But, they fail to see it and even the advisors to governments, purposefully or out of ignorance, fail to give good wisdom to politicians. The economic illiteracy of politicians is being capitalised by advisors for their gain, since they stand to profit out of controls.
Governments then go from one mistake to another: trying to control everything, prices, human behaviour, consumption, job engagements, media freedom and everything possible. At the end, they get entangled in a mess from which they cannot possibly escape. They even try to doctor statistics: growth rates, price indices, employment data, foreign reserves and every number to which the public are sensitive.
This happened on a massive scale in the former USSR which for decades doctored numbers to show its own citizens and the rest of the world that their economic system was the best. But, one fine day in 1990, every thing collapsed on itself and the decade long Soviet supremacy ended up as a sweet dream.
Unfortunately, economic wisdom is not palatable to politicians when they are in power. When in power, they are after only their private gains and scheming how to continue to be in power. It would then give birth to a group of advisors who would whole-heartedly support their views out of dishonest motives.
The solution is for countries to have strong institutions. But that may not be sufficient. They should also have honest and upright people to man them.
When I first read about the practice of large pharmaceutical companies paying smaller producers of cheaper generic drugs to keep their product off the market, I can’t say I was surprised. I can’t even say it registered as a blip on my “Disgusting Lack of Morals” scale.
I mean, after all, big Pharma sees an increase in profit because they can continue to sell the higher priced name-brand drug. And the producers of generics don’t lose any money even though they’ve stopped manufacturing a lucrative, yet lower cost to the public, product. So it’s all good. Right?
TPMMuckraker: Drug-Makers Paying Off Competitors To Keep Cheap Generics Off Market
I was, however, amused by the accuracy of the tag: sleaze.
And my lack of surprise continued when, a few days later I came across a story in the Seattle Times Newspaper by Danny Westneat about a woman living in Seattle with her 2 children. She makes about 18, 000.00 a year. And for that, the IRS decided to audit her.
Because after looking over her tax information, it seems the IRS decided it is impossible to raise 2 kids on 10.00 an hour. Well, no kidding. No pun intended.
Even though they aren’t talking, the IRS seemed to come to the following sage conclusion: She is either lying about having 2 children or she is hiding extra income in order to take the Earned Income Tax Credit.
And when her dad hire someone to look over her tax returns and speak with the IRS on her behalf, the IRS decides that the parents need an audit too. A very thorough audit. Can’t you just hear the menacing sound of rubber gloves snapping into place?
As far as I could tell, they were just two more stories of money and abuse of power from different ends of the economic spectrum. They seemingly have little else in common.
So, imagine my surprise when each of them kept nudging me. At first gently; like the puppy when he first figured out that the table plus people equaled food. And since he was a puppy and he was cute, he felt his chances of scoring a nibble were quite high.
Unlike the pup, who has long since learned that there are no table treats, the stories did not stop their gentle nudging. In fact, I began to find myself pondering them in tandem.
So what was I missing? What connected these two stories together beyond money and an abuse of power? Late yesterday, the phrase Mafia Model sprang unbidden into my mind.
The Mafia Model, as I explained in an earlier post, is just about all that’s keeping the world economy from following the 2nd half of the plumber’s gospel: Hot always goes on the left and shit flows down hill. The monied people, the financiers, the bankers, the billionaires, the rulers of nations; they are all tied together. Their lives are staked, quite literally to the mountain of money known as the economy. If support breaks and one of them goes down, they all go down.
But let’s expand that universe beyond the power players of finance. Let us develop an internal logic in order to create a consistent reality. In that scenario the Mafia Model plays out like this; Big Pharma pays off Little Generic to throw the fight. Everybody wins. Big Pharma bets heavily on their name-brand guy and rakes in the cash because odds were heavily in Little Generic’s favor. The name-brand winner takes the pot. The loser, little Generic from South Jersey, gets a pay off that keeps him happy and out of traction.
So what of our little Italian family in Seattle? Well, it’s no stretch to see that when you want to set an example, the easiest targets are women, children and small business owners. Don’t like how some people aren’t paying their due because they are protected by Earned Income Tax Credits? Send your goons in to lean on them a little. And when old Pop steps in to protect his daughter and grandkids? Smack him down a peg or two. You don’t need to break any bones, just run them into the ground with fines and fees and legal bills. Folks in the community will get the message. Capice?
Okay, this one’s going to be shorter than normal, but it makes a good point. I take great pride in that I can see any person, of any race, as just exactly the person they are. That having been said,we still have a big racism problem in this country, but where does it come from? I won’t be so crass as to offer an answer, but I will relate to you a little story about my day that has to be told. Despite all the important things I had to do today, my mother, you may call her “Dukes,” calls out of the blue to ask me if I want to go with her to run some errands around DE. She doesn’t know the area very well, so I happily obliged. Around eleven or twelve, we stop into a Mexican Restaurant for lunch. Now, I’m compelled to explain that this place IS a Mexican restaurant and very proudly so. However, I find it entertaining to point out subtle racist influences as a means to make my peers laugh on occasion. I take a gander at the menu, some good-looking food, nothing crazy, and then I spot the “Lunch Menu.” I kid you not, every item on the lunch menu had something to do with eggs. There was even a breakfast burrito listed directly beneath the header which stated that the lunch menu was served from eleven A.M until three P.M. Now there are different types of “Mexican” restaurants. We have the Taco Bell, which is the burger king of Spanish cuisine, however tasty it really is. We have restaurants like this one, which serve much more authentic Spanish food, but are still very friendly, yet quite racist under the rug. You have large-chain places that try to teach you how to speak Spanish right on the menu, although your waiter’s name is Shareece. There’s even one down the road from me that I used to love until it closed. That is, closed to Gringo’s unless you are dating a HIspanic person who works there or is a regular. Now, that pisses me off, but at least they’re honest. Back to today. At first, I thought it was really funny that a Mexican restaurant would have a breakfast burrito on their lunch menu. I mean, it’s a racist old white guy’s wet dream, which is another excuse to call Mexicans lazy. However, it hit me fast and hard. This place only had two other people there, white “businesswomen” on a “business lunch.” They had a snowman on the wall in front of my face and I heard “Silver Bells” over the loudspeaker and nothing about Feliz Navidad. This place was completely geared toward white people! It’s as plain as day now, that they were calling us exactly what an old, white, douchebag would probably call them after a six-pack of Pabst and a long day of firing a shotgun at nothing! This was so subtle, I don’t think they even realized it when making the menu! Look guys, we CAN beat racism, but it’s gotta go both ways. I couldn’t mean this in a more sincere and less provocational way, so no offence is necessary. I have had the priviledge of being raised very well and have a very United Colors of Benneton-type circle of friends from all walks of life. But none of them have ever been enslaved or even know someone who has. They’ve been persecuted about as much as I have. There’s no college fund for a twenty-two year-old white kid fresh out of the military who has no arrest record and high ACT scores, but nowhere near enough money to go to college. I don’t think there should be. I think we should try giving away random scholarships and see what happens. It can’t be any bigger a waste of money than most free scholarships out there already and who knows? We might just get another national genius out of it. At any rate, I’m sitting here, watching the sun come up, and as I waste my time blogging before bed I warn you. Be nice to those who wake up at eleven A.M. They’re awake when you’re sleeping…
If class were cash, Harry Reid, the personification of the Peter Principle at work in the Senate, would be as deeply in debt as he and his ilk have put the United States government (i.e., the American taxpayer).
In his latest political regurgitation, he is comparing those of us who oppose this health care reform bill to supporters of slavery. Never mind that it was the Republican Party that was founded as the anti-slavery party back in the 1850s. Never mind that it was a democrat (Strom Thurman) who failed in his attempt to filibuster the Civil Rights bill of 1957 and it was actually the Republicans who led the fight in support of the bill. Note: Thurman would later (1964) cross over the aisle to the Republican side.
Side note: Since my high school days, I’ve been criticized for writing run-on sentences. Well, folks, prepare for the crowning achievement of a life dedicated to the fine art of the run-on sentence, as I attempt to put this into some perspective:
Harry Reid, the cowardly traitor who had the audacity to stand in the hall of the United States Senate and announce “The war in Iraq is lost” (bringing aid and comfort to the enemy) while our young men and women were winning the surge…
(let me catch my breath)
… the same Harry Reid who is part of the Congress that has enslaved our children and grandchildren as debtors to foreign powers for the next century (if we’re lucky it will only be that long) due to the ”tax and spend” spree that has tripled the deficit since Obama has taken office…
(one more breath and I think we’re there)
… now points his finger at those of us who are smart enough to see what his ignorance misses (the unsustainable debt he’s imposing) and is accusing us as being the ones supporting slavery.
Wow, Harry. You just never learn, do you? The government reforming health care is like asking the fox to reform hen house security. And I’m pretty sure the chance of success is about the same. And if this bill becomes law, it will without doubt push the United States economy beyond the point of no return.
The ruling Kuomintang (KMT, the Chinese Nationalist Party) of Taiwan suffered a setback in local government’s election yesterday, losing control of one of the most tightly contested counties to the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). [1] As a result, President Ma Ying-jeou, chairman of KMT, vowed to continue pushing for “reforms”. “Ma said the government will use the budding economic recovery to improve the people’s daily lives.” [2]
If any, the budding economic recovery in this context should mean the recovery of certain metropolitan area’s soaring house prices, the recovery of certain companies’ share prices, and the recovery of soaring petrol prices. But then, what do most of Taiwanese people’s daily lives have to do with this so-called “economic recovery”?
The economy has always been a major issue and an important appeal to the public to win elections in most democratic countries, especially Taiwan. In this country, almost every candidate, either from the ruling party or the opposition parties, would promise to improve people’s daily lives through economy.
However, only capitalists and politicians can certainly benefit from economic growth, which is usually measured by an increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). Proletarian people do not necessarily benefit from it, not even close when the so-called “economic growth” is represented by the soaring prices in the housing market, the share market, or the supermarket.
To sustainably improve people’s daily lives, a government needs to properly supervise and regulate the activities of capitalists, not to cooperate with them. A government which only values economic development rather than environmental protection can hardly protects its people’s lives, not to mention the improvement of their daily lives.
參照 Reference
[1] The China Post, “KMT suffers setback.” Dec. 6th, 2009. http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/national/national-news/2009/12/06/235412/KMT-suffers.htm
[2] The China Post, “Results were unsatisfactory: Ma.” Dec. 6th, 2009. http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/national/national-news/2009/12/06/235414/p1/Results-were.htm
＊片頭：2009年8月莫拉克風災下的臺灣人民 the video above: Taiwanese people under the disaster of typhoon Morakot in August 2009
I have little sympathy for the union leadership. And I’m a union member. So why do I have little sympathy? Well, one could query how it was that a relatively uncontroversial short term working hours plan could morph into the ‘unpaid leave’ monster that allowed both the media and the political classes (the utter hypocrisy of FF backbenchers given their stance on expenses during the negotiations for the PfG is a sight to behold – but then bait and switch has always been their forte) to initiate a series of unrelenting attacks. That this measure is reasonably widely used in the private sector appears to have escaped almost all of those doing the attacking. That the unions weren’t savvy enough to recognise that this would provide an Achilles heel to all their great plans and proposals tells us something about their intuitive ability to misread the public mood and to worsen it… radically. All it would have taken was to hammer home the message that this was a normal device used in the private sector at times like this, a device that the Irish Times itself had promoted.
No mean achievement.
Secondly I have little sympathy because this cruelly underlines the fact that the government feels that they can impose their will by fiat. Surely, the government wobbled somewhat – and to what extent might well be instructive – even in terms of negotiating. But they must have seen from the point that strike No. 2 was called off that they had the field to themselves. If the unions weren’t willing to sit it out and increase the pressure the chances were that they weren’t that serious. The unions aren’t quite irrelevant. The Green Party in particular has been eyeing them nervously, perhaps because the GP has absolutely no sense of what organised labour is about and no particular interest or sympathy towards it.
And on a side bar issue, from talking to union members I have the strong impression, backed up by some of the comments here in the wake of the first strike, that there was no great enthusiasm or appetite for continued action. The general, as distinct from particular groupings, mass of the union membership was resigned to impending cuts and – I would hazard – thought that the action might at best ameliorate the effects slightly of said cuts. This ties into the inconvenient fact that most union members also buy into the orthodoxy to a greater or lesser degree. They may, and do, feel that they are [rightly] under considerable attack from the media, that those attacks are [rightly] unfair and they have [rightly] given more than most in terms of their wages being diminished, bar those who have lost their jobs. But this brings us to my last reason for having little or no sympathy for the leadership.
While there was some slight effort initially to resile from the orthodoxy from early on the unions – generally – bought into the orthodoxy. Perhaps not intellectually, but politically and although drawing back in their negotiations the very fact they were negotiating was indicative of that. Few who cared to look could have missed the delight of the Irish Times at the news last week the unions ‘accepted’ that cuts of €1.3bn were the order of the day. And this approach was so disastrous because it meant that it ceded legitimacy to the government and the orthodoxy when the unions could have, if they had made some effort, provided support to a counter narrative. A counter narrative that is extant in other states facing similar issues and one that in this state given the woefully low level of taxation across range of areas (PRSI being a particularly glaring example – 5% as a percentage of GDP as against 12.8% in other EU-15 states, and yesterday Danny McCoy of IBEC was arguing for further cuts in it to help our beleagured – and given our low tax environment – amazingly inept in parts, private sector) could demonstrate that in contrast to the supposed lack of ability to deal with this crisis other than by cuts we haven’t even begun to address alternative revenue streams that other European states of our size consider a norm. That we are, as it were, being forced by orthodoxy to look at only one side of the equation of tax and spend, that being spend.
Indeed one could argue the the strategic goal of the unions should have been to act to put that argument front and centre before the Irish people, ahead of public sector wages, ahead of everything. Because once you accept the parameters of orthodoxy you’re lost, since then it comes down to how much is cut and not why there are cuts. And since the eschatological approach of those arguing for cuts leaves no wiggle room (look at the actuality of unpaid leave, effective 5 – 7% wage cuts, as against… er… 5 – 6% wage cuts sought by Cowen today from pay cuts). Truth is pay cuts may be less penurious than unpaid leave. But that won’t get through the filter.
And the unions still fail!
So where would such a strategy of not accepting the orthodoxy leave us in practice? Well, first up it could have take two possible routes subsequently. First a strongly antagonistic and activist line to whatever was served up in the Budget and after. Or a campaign of passive resistance, acknowledging that cuts would be imposed, refusing to accept their legitimacy and adamantly refusing to accept any further returns to the well – this latter while bowing to the relative strengths of the players would have the advantage of going with the instincts of union members while offering an opportunity to educate them and those more widely afield as to why alternatives aren’t just feasible but necessary if we value the societal compact. Neither approach would be optimal, but they would at least have the value of providing a counter narrative to the orthodoxy.
And they wouldn’t leave us in a situation where the unions had engaged in a cosmetic round of actions and negotiations where very participation and engagement on the Government’s terms is to lose the argument from the off.
As an addendum, even if this were doomed to fail from the off, how it fails is crucial…
Hmm, roasted or fried? Um, I mean, we come in peace: Kara Swisher renders Google CEO Eric Schmidt’s Wall Street Journal op-ed into plain English.
Is your boss stealing from you? Could well be.
Good news/very bad news: In the week ending Nov. 28, first-time unemployment claims fell from 462,000 the previous week to 457,000. The very bad news: Emergency claims by people whose unemployment benefits have run out rose by 265,000. In one week. The total was more than 3.8 million, compared with 777,000 a year ago.
Will wonders never cease?: Sen. Jim Bunning, R-Ky., does one worthwhile thing in his miserable, misanthropic life and carves Ben Bernanke a new orifice. Fellow tool Jim DeMint, R-S.C., actually asks helpful questions.
Yes, apparently wonders will cease: Sarah Palin, birther.
And then wonders that already have happened will un-happen: Sarah Palin Goes Rogue Fail.
Shorter Mitt Romney economic plan: “More money for me and my friends!”
You’re worried about health care and the deficit? Fine: Let’s talk about that: Republicans and some “centrist” Democrats say they worry about what health-care reform will do to the deficit. They need to worry more about what will happen to the deficit if health-care reform doesn’t pass. (But don’t take my word for it. Take the word of Bush 43’s head of Medicare.)
Pwn3d!: Sens. Tom “Sanctimonious” Coburn and David “Diapers” Vitter introduce what they intend to be a poison-pill amendment to health-care reform that would require members of Congress to enroll in the public option … only to be swarmed by Democrats who think that’s a great idea and sign on as co-sponsors. Hee.
Quote of the day, from commenter “paradoctor” at Hullabaloo, on the douchiness of Senate Republicans: “To them, corporations are people and women are an abstraction.”
Nature strikes back: Asian carp are invading fresh waters of the upper Midwest and the Great Lakes. Bye-bye, trout. And apparently you shouldn’t use a motorboat to go fishing for them because the sound of the motor just pisses them off. (h/t: Nance)
New Internet meme: “There’s far too much detail here for this to be a fabrication.”
And he’d have lived forever if it hadn’t been for those meddling kids and their dog: Aaron Schroeder, composer of hundreds of pop hits ranging from “It’s Now or Never” and “Good Luck Charm” to the theme from the TV cartoon “Scooby-Doo, Where Are You?,” is dead at 83.
Bank of America is repaying its bailout loan. CBS is declaring a dividend after tripling in price since last May. Online sales are better than last year. GM is selling cars; Ford is selling cars; Hyundai is selling more cars than they know what to do with.
If spending is something that determines the success of a country, then it looks as if our country is downright successful.
But there’s still deflation. Wages are dropping. People are being rehired at lower wages than before. Prices are dropping at the retail level in a lot of stores and restaurants. Should we worry? Well, would you rather have a little sunlight or a thick gray cloud?
I was born in Nicaragua and raised in Miami, Fl. I have introjected the Miami lifestyle, personality, and attitude from a very early age. It has shaped the way I view life, how I interact with people, and my outlook on life.
Miami became what it is today, what it was when I first moved there, by way of cocaine. Cocaine helped build Miami’s economic infrastructure and, by extension, Miami life.
While during the 1960’s and 70’s marijuana was Miami’s main drug import, it did not produce enough revenue to build an economy for what would become the fourth largest urbanized area in the United States.
During and before this era, Miami had already been illegally importing tobacco, coffee beans, and other products subject to tariffs, mostly transported by air or water. This managed to escape the public eye which was watchfully occupied with concerns over illegal marijuana imports.
Illegal importation became a way of life, and smugglers became experts at it. This was mostly led by CIA trained Cuban-Americans left in Miami after the CIA shut down its field station in Miami. This would pave the way for Miami’s future in cocaine importation.
Don’t expect further drops in the mortgage rate over the next 30 to 45 days. Most experts (80 percent) polled by Bankrate.com last week expect an increase. The rest split evenly, with 10 percent predicting no change, and 10 percent expecting a decline.
McLEAN, Va. – Nov. 30, 2009 – Average rates for 30-year fixed mortgages fell last week, matching a record low set last spring and more than a full percentage point below what they were a year ago, Freddie Mac said Wednesday.
Rates for 30-year mortgages averaged 4.78 percent last week, down from 4.83 percent the previous week and equaling the record low reached the week of April 30.
Last year at this time, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 5.97 percent.
Interest rates began dropping last November, when the Federal Reserve began spending $1.25 trillion to buy up mortgage-backed securities in an effort to lower rates, loosen credit availability and bolster the long-suffering housing market.
via 30-year mortgage rates sink, match record low.
Many children today believe that chocolate milk actually comes from brown cows… and that’s only if they know that most of the milk they drink is produced by cows. Agriculture education is a minimal part of elementary school educations, and students are becoming more removed from the farm and agriculture as a result. If the consumers of tomorrow do not know where their food is coming from, why would they want to pay top dollar for premium Canadian agricultural products?
Educating consumers about the products they purchase can have an impact on the goods they purchase. If they know general information about the origin and processing aspects of their food, they may be willing to pay premiums for locally grown goods, or even increase farmers’ share of the profits of processed goods. Consumers who do not know the progression their foods make from farm to plate are also unlikely to know the amount of time and effort that farmers put into on-farm production.
Agricultural knowledge and education should start when young children enroll in elementary school. The amount of time spent learning about agriculture should increase each year so that by the time students make the transition to purchasing their own food, they know what they are buying and the main methods of processing. The dollar share that each link in the food chain receives would also be part of this agricultural education. With this knowledge, young consumers could be more aware of the choices they make. Eventually this will increase farm profits, as they understand that to receive premium products they must pay more.
Many children today believe that chocolate milk actually comes from brown cows… and that’s only if they know that most of the milk they drink is produced by cows. Agriculture education is a minimal part of elementary school educations, and students are becoming more removed from the farm and agriculture as a result. If the consumers of tomorrow do not know where their food is coming from, why would they want to pay top dollar for premium Canadian agricultural products?