In Brief: $1.69m trade grant

Cambodia has been granted US$1.69 million over five years for trade policy development under a multilateral scheme launched to help least-developed countries improve trade processes. The financing under the Enhanced Integrated Framework was announced Tuesday during a three-day meeting of trade representatives from 12 least-developed countries that are seeking access to the World Trade Organisation. Cambodia, which became a member in 2004, hosted the meeting, which also included representatives from fellow member countries Cape Verde and Nepal.

Source: The Phnom Penh Post, Wednessday, 30 September 2009

When Suck-Sex became more important than love

When Suck-Sex became more important than love

 

I wrote a song called “Love is a Lie” it didn’t make the cut because I felt the song was about how the love of money became more important than love.  All we hear about nowadays is how to become successful.  On the radio, on television and even the ministries are teaching about how money is more important than love.  I think in this world money is an important part of the equation; however the key has always been love first.  It may sound life a fairy tale but the power of love can take you very far. 

 

When love is the motivation to the equation there is a winning hand.  Sure I even get upset and say things negative and even sometimes hateful.  It is like fighting hate with hate and the end result is even more hate.  When the President of the United States teaches success over love to our children, we have a problem.  When the Mayor of New York brags about crime down in the schools yet the streets are full of gangs we have a problem.  When they both forgot in the equation is these kids have to go home at the end of the day, we have a problem. 

 

If you have a brilliant child among thugs, if he/she is not trained to uplift the thugs how brilliant is he/she really.  They say the light shined in dark places but they loved darkness anyway.  So what are the odds of a child bright in a world of darkness and hatred all after success by any means?  Stacked in the Projects like sardines forced to survive by any means?  Oh, I have to add this one; we want to cut cost in healthcare while the Iranians have free healthcare due the American tax payers?  This country is shameless and disgusting. 

 

In this capitalist society monetary success is limited to the chosen few, in this world yes you can even be over qualified and education is not free one year can cost $20G.  We all know so well it is easy to be under qualified.   And believe or not in this world you can be to damn smart for your own good.  I know first had and give less than a damn, because I’d rather die fighting the injustice through the so powerful words, that can enlighten, than simply accept the status quo as righteous when I know they are devils.  Than I was told sex sells.  But who is buying it?  When Suck-Sex became more important than love? 

 

Love can overflow, but resources are limited.  We do not have to conserve love!

A Mad Mad World.

Earth is round. Earth is oval. Earth is flat on the edges. It is spherical.It movesaround the sun in ellipses.When it is closer to the sun it moves faster, and when it is away ,it moves slower. The rotation of the earth causes day and night. The revolution of this blue planet brings in seasonal changes. Thus  the earth activity brings about changes that nevertheless has become a routine.

 

As earth goes round its confirmed passage without much disturbance,so the economy of the nations which occupy the earth’s surface ,go about unperturbed by any form of irrationality.

The placidity of earth,gets a jolt once in  a way, when an unpredictable threat in the guise of quakes, storm, and grave flooding ,most like Tsunami . The devastating severity crosses man’s imagination. The heaving, the tossing, the burning, the smoke and the frothing signals a shudder down the adrenaline.The effect is so piteous ,extremely gloomy and wretched.Why such risky happenings occur?

It ia a point to ponder. The danger comes from man, emanates from his wreckless behaviour, emerges from hs disdain and contempt for the nourisher-earth. The scary apprehensions are the product of Man’s crudities,and indifference.

So much so the economy ,which binds Man financially gets disquieted by his follies and greed.The harmonious blend of nature and living is exposed to the crude ,wicked demonstrations of man. The monetary aspect sets a goal of satisfaction. The enrichment meanders towards a path of modest appreciation.it curves up and down, as the graph illustrates its upward march and down the lane concept.The slow symbolic activity provides a simple formula of Algebra -(a+b(a-b)=a to the power of 2-b to the power of 2.This established formulae get twisted ,when many inclusions are pushed in. The economic activity moved in an applied deviation, until unthinkable clauses and untenable riders disrupted its growth, The mess was pulled into the scrupulous system, by he selfish managerial techniques adopted by the learned Officials. A throw out of financial aid, a lay out of undescribed deliverance,a muzzled arrangement of records, a dubious spread out of disbursement and collectibles, have collapsed the regulated ,system. The insulation that has been stealthily guarded by the department of finance ,has been penetrated by villains and  foxy executives. Putting the ominous I, before every documentation, every transaction, every sanction, has corrupted the economic system.

It is Man ,who has committed a serious ,severe transgression to Earth and Economy , thus strangling  them to a point of tragic death.

Bad Habits, Bad Economy, and a Bad Hairday.

The only things that I do for fun on a regular basis is watch TV and sleep. Everything else is work or school or more work.

Tell me, what is the point of working if you have no time to do something with the money? Oh that’s right, with the way the tuitions are rising for college the existence of a teenage disposable income is past. So there is no need for me to worry about that money sitting in my bank account and getting stale. It will all be drained in due time. Where is that college tuition help Obama promised? Has he gotten around to that or did Cash for Clunkers eat up all that money? The problems our economy is facing are nothing to complain about compared to the problems of the governments debt. We are just going to have to give up California to China or something with the rate we are borrowing money.

I really shouldn’t worry about that just yet. I want to spend the last couple years before I am legally allowed to vote or in other words before I am forced to take sides. I need a haircut. Not just a trim since I’m growing it out, but a “Hey that’s a big change!” haircut. But I’m way to nervous to do it. Everyone with long hair who cuts it always complain about how they miss their hair. Well instead of longing for it to grow back I am going to continue to grow it out. Untill, (fill in the blank with some random excuse).

Bad Habit of the day has to me boys. I have made some friends this year, gotten closer to old friends. But I don’t want to have to make the decision between old and new friends. So instead of sitting down and thinking about it, I’m doing what I do best and avoiding it. I still stand by my original feelings that relationships are stupid in high school.

Harvard B-School Case Study on Najib's Economics

September 28, 2009

The logic of Najibo-nomics

by Dr Azly Rahman (via e-mail)

Fashionable it may seem to credit this or that “economic miracle” episode to this or that country to the name of its leader, economist, dictator, emperor, etc. – the larger picture of the historical march of “freakonomics” is neglected.

Freakonomics is what the global society was plagued with beginning with the American sub-prime-inspired crisis; a breakdown of the world’s casino-capitalist system.

Fashionable it may seem to cite this or that case-study to a proposed “Harvard” study, just like calling a university “Harvard of the East” or “Princeton of the Peripheries” or “Oxford of the Outbacks” or even “Cambridge of the Caribbean” – it misses the point of what and how casino capitalism works.

It misses the point that the world is undergoing yet another wave of perpetual revolution in the field of economic thinking.

Malaysians are into this fashionable game of assigning this or that terminology to this or that epoch of “economic cultural depression and how these are cured”.

Like the style of historicising that assigns this or that age to this or that person, resulting in epochs of historical vaingloriousness, Malaysians have seen periodisation of its capitalist march, in names such as “Mahathirism”, “Badawi-ism”, and now “Najibo-nomics”.

Not much was seen in names such as “Tunku-nomics” (after Tunku Abdul Rahman), Razak-ism (after Abdul Razak Hussein), and Hussein-nomics or Hussein-ism (after Hussein Onn).

Perhaps we did not really pay attention to how the pre-Mahathir era leaders address issues. We did not see words such as “Doctrine” attached as affix to these names to read “Tunku Doctrine” or the likes.

The Politics of Names

History that glorifies individuals is a result of historicising that involves forced authoring of name. Hence, dynasties in China are generally named after individuals and Empires in India, after their first rulers. In modern times, we saw terms such as “Thatcherism”, “Reaganism” or “Reaganomics” and perhaps “Obama-nomics” after we saw “Obama-mania”.

At the beginning of the century we saw Leninism, Stalinism, Maoism, Castroism, and the “Kennedy Era”. Then there were Hitlerism, Bismarkian era, and Tokugawa Period. The Islamic world saw names such as Wahhabi-ism and Khomeini-ism.

Post-Independence Southeast Asia saw Marcos-era, Sukarnoism with its Marhaenism and Ganyang-Malaysia-ism replaced by Modern Day-Yudistira-ism of Suhartoism. We saw Lee Kuan Yew-styled Asian Despotism and the 22-year rule of Mahathirism.

As if there is not enough of the game of glorifying persons in history, the modern media too is continuing the politics of false-consciousness; masking the larger picture of oppression of those nameless masses in the march towards the perfection of casino capitalism.

Logic of Capitalism

Philosophically positioned, capitalism takes Nature, turns it into Technology, and engineers the evolution of culture that structures the divisions of classes of people, through the installation process of the “machine in the garden” and the transforming of human beings into labor and commodities.

Ultimately, Technology subdues Nature and thrusts Humanity into a matrix of complexities that relegates human beings as cogs in the wheels of Capital.

Capitalism is a system of predatory economics, sanctioned by the evolution of power, knowledge, and ideology. It must be looked at not by the “epochs” of rulership of these or that kings, tyrants, or despots, but culturally as a system that has a logic and its own system of periodisation.

It requires the unmasking of the psychology and culture of human control, bondage, and the abuse of control apparatuses, in order to sustain an economic system that will naturally create a complex system of ownership rationalized through yet another system of production of culture as commodity, and production of strategies of mystification that provides false consciousness and happiness to those exploited by those who own the means of economic, cultural, and intellectual production.

The evolution of tribes, nations, and countries need not be seen as linear, following Rostowian idea of developmental economics, framed by Friedmanian doctrine.

The premises underlying these ideas need to be studied, critiqued, and made culturally relevant in all of our institutions of higher learning.

We must also demand our students to master the concepts and applications of radical economic ideas that put back human dignity in the march of meaningful human progress.

In this case, why not challenge them to explore ecological socialism and sustainable developmental paradigm by having them study the economics and social systems of the indigenous peoples of Malaysia, such as the Penans, Ibans, and Kadazan-dusuns?

For too long, we have been so obsessed with creating wealth and destroying Nature rather than spreading wealth and preserving Nature.

The Middle Name

Back to “Najibo-nomics”.

I do not think it is necessary to give birth to this name. I think there is, in the words of a research or case-study strategy, those who proposed that the name must triangulate the data of Malaysia’s claim to economic invulnerability.

One must not only study numbers crunched officially and bury human beings under those numbers that are then trumpeted across the globe.

One must go back to Malaysia’s timeline of economic history and look at the country from a culturally-kaleidoscopic perspective, from the lens other than what structural functionalists would use.

The world we inhabit in is not merely a celestial body tattooed culturally and stylized by economic numerology; we live in a structurally violent world of the powerful and the powerless, of the haves and the have-nots, and of increasing dehumanization as a consequence of the economic condition we are born into, exacerbated by the rapidisation of technology and the speed of politics.
In Malaysia, fifty years of glorifying this and that epoch and of periods and ruptures must, in any case study of political economy, be triangulated with data on the human and cultural consequences of development — this “developmentalist agenda” must be perceived from a human rights perspective.

How must Malaysians study the decades of racial disintegration, incidences of ethnic violence, nature of authoritarianism, breakdown of virtually all sub-social systems, etched patterns of economic apartheid, schooling and racial discrimination, abuse of the state ideological apparatuses, and finally the steadily rising billion-Ringgit benchmark of corruption this country has gauged in her way to becoming a failed state?

Those above are amongst the variables that need to be taken into consideration when one thinks of a good case study. Let us be more sophisticated when naming names.

Real Estate Cycles

The appreciation of a market, the expectations of buyers and sellers, and the velocity of market sales are all dictated by the supply of – and the demand for – real estate for sale.

We saw rapid appreciation and fast responses by buyers in the U.S. real estate market from 2002  through 2005.  This response was caused by the fact that demand for real estate was at an all-time high while the supply was limited. Causing rapid appreciation, with home sellers receiving multiple offers within days or even hours. At one time during that period, homes in  southern California were selling, on average, at 18% above the listed  price – the result of a market condition where demand outstripped  supply. 

Positive situations cause positive outcomes, and vice versa. For example, a hot economic growth leads to a hot real estate market and strong appreciation of homes, while loss of jobs and a languishing economy produce exactly the opposite effect.

As the baby boom generation matured, it fueled  an explosion in second home purchases so strong that more than 21% of 2004 U.S. home sales were second home purchases – most  acquired by aging baby boomers. This created desire for additional housing that affected the construction and home values in second  home markets nationwide.

Periods of rapid real estate appreciation are followed by stagnant periods where values stabilize or even decrease. By acquiring marketplace knowledge, you can foresee trends. This stagnant period is about to end.  The up-cycle market is around the corner.  Rates are the lowest that they have ever been, and prices are at the lowest they have ever been.  Buyers!!! This is the time to buy!!!! 

 

On the scrapheap…

There is one thing worse than working a 45-50 hour week against a backdrop of constant pressure…and that’s the prospect of having no job at all. This is the very real prospect we face in my workplace after the one and only client announced that after a year long review of their procurement, our services were no longer required. We are now in a period where the existing workload will be cleared, the handover process undertaken and then…it’s out the door for the vast majority of us.

All this comes after major changes in our terms and conditions – increased hours and pay cuts – to meet the requirement from the client for lower fees to be charged for the work. Not to mention the huge amount of work we have done for them throughout the summer. What thanks do we get? Sod all apart from goodbye, it’s been nice knowing you! So as you can imagine, there are some very bitter people where I work… Not only that, as part of the internal re-organisation at the aforementioned client, a lot of their workers are also facing redundancy or the prospect of having to re-apply for their jobs with companies who the work has been outsourced to. Again, as you can imagine, there’s not a lot of happy bunnies there either…

All of this made me think about the human and social costs of the ruthless drive of neo-liberalism to maximise profits come what may. The decisions made by our soon to be ex-client may have a certain rational logic when looked at in a very narrow business context. It’s when you start to look at the human cost – and the consequences – that the logic rapidly starts to fray. To work for a company having to go through a year long review process with their main client, knowing that at the end you could very well be ruthlessly cast aside, is a corrosive and soul destroying experience. People are forced to put their lives on hold, postponing expenditure and holidays as they await the decision. What the client has been doing is sodding around with people’s lives with no regard for the human cost of their actions.

Moving away from my immediate concerns, when you look at the way work is outsourced abroad, it seems that very narrow business criteria are applied with no regard for the human cost and no understanding of the huge social cost that will eventually have to be faced. A decision made by one business to move work from the UK to a location abroad may very well make good business sense to them – it’s when that process is repeated hundreds of times that a massive social cost is incurred.

In my industry, an increasing amount of work is outsourced overseas, leaving behind skilled workers such as myself struggling to find jobs with decent pay and conditions. This will put me in a situation where I’ll have to take on any job going to pay the bills, regardless of what the terms and conditions are. With the quality of jobs available declining, there will be many more instances of vacancies being filled by people who are over qualified but cannot find anything else. This will have a knock on effect all the way down the chain so those with few or no qualifications will find it nigh on impossible to get a job.

So we will have a situation where people are increasingly forced to take on jobs that in no way meet fulfil their aspirations – in effect they are being been proletarianised to use a piece of Marxist terminology. Underneath this there will be a layer of people with few or no qualifications who will find there is no work available to them as everyone above them in the pecking order has been forced to trade down – they will be joining the rapidly growing number of the unemployed.

We have the prefect storm – a growing number of workers in jobs that do not fulfil their aspirations and relentlessly rising unemployment as employment opportunities become ever more constrained. This is a sure recipe for growing social unrest. At the moment, rising unemployment is still a hidden crisis. The much heralded ‘summer of rage’ never happened. The world gives the appearance of carrying on as normal – the Sunday papers are still full of lifestyle guff and pointless gossip, there are still home makeover programmes on the TV, designer handbags are still being sold for obscene amounts of money and so on as the circus continues….

Yet, all of this is an illusion. Under the façade there are hundreds of thousands of people who are having to drastically scale back their aspirations and a growing number who can see no hope at all for the future. All may appear to be calm at the moment but it will only take another banking crisis to shock the system and the house of cards will well and truly start to collapse as people start to wake up to the grim reality of how the economy is being destroyed. This will be the point where life starts to get interesting…

Meg Whitman Governor 2010

Support Meg Whitman with Meg Whitman for Governor t-shirts, mugs, bumper stickers and more.

For Meg, the 2010 gubernatorial election is about restoring California. It’s about fixing the economy. It’s about creating jobs. And it’s about committing to education once again. Be a part of it and help Meg Whitman build a new California by wearing Meg Whitman for Governor t-shirts.

Will Social Media Be of Any Help to CEOs?

By Fayazuddin A. Shirazi
Although industry analysts are increasingly advocating the usage of social media by companies, CEOs apparently are going easy on the suggestions. As against the increased usage of social media – such as Twitter, Facebook, MySpace and the fast growing blogs domain – by general public, CEOs are still lagging behind in adopting to such emerging trends and technologies.

Writing for his blog “My Three Cents”, Ken Makovsky, CEO and President Makovsky + Company, a NY based global investor relations company believes, CEOs are losing, what he calls, a powerful opportunity to connect with their customers by ignoring social media.

Commenting on a recent research piece which pronounced most of the CEOs to be social media slackers, Makovsky thinks social media is a rapidly growing community and CEOs should identify and align themselves with these emerging technologies.

The research by UberCEO.com, a blog watch on CEOs, found most of the Fortune 100 CEOs they surveyed were social media hermits. Out of the 100 CEOs analyzed only two had twitter accounts.

Eighty-one percent of chief executives did not have a personal Facebook page. Only 13 had profiles on the professional networking site LinkedIn. Three-quarters of the CEOs did have some kind of Wikipedia entry, but nearly a third of those had limited or outdated information, such as incorrect titles, or failed to provide sources. While some CEOs contribute to other blogs, not one Fortune 100 chief executive had his or her own blog, writes Makovsky.

However, recent research data from Nielsen revealed that people are spending more time on social networking and blog sites than ever before. Nielsen research found the number of minutes spent on social media in the United Sates is doubling over the past year. “Despite an increase (82 percent) in the total number of minutes spent year-over-year and average time per person (67 percent) year-over-years, the CEOs are still staying aloof from the rapidly growing social media community,” wonders Makovsky quoting the Nielsen and UberCEO report.

So why is that CEOs are wary about social media? Experts believe CEOs fear, their open dialogue could spell potential trouble for them as they are closely watched by the law and the governance agencies.

“No doubt regulations such as Sarbanes-Oxley and Reg-FD make CEOs cautious about communicating freely, but they’re missing a fabulous opportunity to connect with their target audience and raise their company’s visibility,” Sharon Barclay, editor UberCEO.com told Reuters, referring to financial reporting regulations aimed at protecting investors.

Experts feel unless CEOs are motivated to use the social media themselves, they really cannot know what it is.

“You (CEOs) can’t understand Twitter, Facebook, or blogging by reading an article in a magazine or a report from your CMO. Sure, they can tell you what they are, but you won’t be able to truly understand how they could change your business unless you actually use them,” George F. Colony, CEO Forrester Research and the self-proclaimed CEO Guru had observed in his recent blog posting. He says the only way CEOs can understand social technologies is by using them.

“Social is like sex. It’s fun to talk about and read about, but you can’t truly comprehend unless you do it,” Colony noted in his blog posting at Counter Intuitive CEO.

According to Colony, the CEO of Zappos, Tony Hsieh, uses social extensively and now has 300 customer service representatives at the company on Twitter. Why? As Tony says…”People don’t relate to companies, they relate to people.” “This is important insight. You, the 57 year old CEO may not use social, but that doesn’t mean that your customers don’t use social. You are not your customer,” Colony points out referring to Tony Hsieh’s view.

Makovsky believes, while not every CEO has the skills, inclination or regulatory freedom to blog, it’s worth remembering that the social media represent a powerful opportunity for a company — or virtually any other entity— to really connect with its most important stakeholders.

“Yes, much of the social technology is a titanic time waster. And yes, much of the technology is crap. But there may be real value here for your company — something that you can’t grasp unless you engage with social,” George F. Colony pointed out.

Link to Article

What About Real Estate?

The economic news has been mostly encouraging lately. Even the labor market, a lagging indicator, is showing tentative signs of a rebound as initial claims for unemployment benefits fell for a third consecutive week. A number of analysts contend that the recession has ended, although we won’t know for sure until the National Bureau of Economic Research, a nonprofit organization charged with assigning dates to business cycles, makes the call sometime next year. If you think back to the financial chaos of last September and the mixture of fear and gloom that settled over global markets for the next six months, it certainly didn’t seem like the recession would end this soon.

For commercial real estate, perhaps the last industry to join the recovery, recent news hasn’t been so good. Both the investment and leasing markets appear to be stuck in molasses. For a more optimistic outlook, it helps to take a long-term view backward and forward.

• In the early 1990s, there was a feeling that commercial real estate was a permanently damaged asset class with market fundamentals unlikely to recover for a very long time. The market had been badly overbuilt, and respected analysts said that it would not need another square foot of space until after the millennium. There was a further sense at the time that computer and networking technology would suppress the need for, and value of, office, retail and even industrial space. That view proved to be far too pessimistic as most markets were on the road to recovery by the mid-1990s. Today there appears to be more confidence that the asset class will embark on a recovery within a year and feel noticeably stronger in the 2011-2012 time frame. For evidence of this relative optimism, look no further than the growing reservoir of capital being raised to target distressed assets. There has even been talk of too much capital, which could serve to put a floor under prices.
• Looking ahead, commercial real estate could be positioned to reprise its role as an inflation hedge, a role it last performed in the early 1980s – see chart on right. Inflation is unlikely to be a problem for the next couple of years, but the growing deficit, weak dollar and a potential reduction in the willingness of investors to buy U.S. government debt could spur a bout of inflation later on as the recovering economy sops up excess capacity in the labor market, factories, housing and commercial properties. This could coincide with a recovery of commercial real estate leasing markets – falling vacancy rates and rising rental rates – which would make the asset class look very attractive to investors. Analysts are divided over the potential for inflation down the road, but the timing of an outbreak, if one occurs, could favor commercial real estate.

Robert Bach – SVP, Chief Economist – Grubb & Ellis

Africa Light / Gray Zone

official trailer of AFRICA LIGHT / GRAY ZONE

This short film by Tino Schwanemann is a story about Africa. It deals with the facets of social, economical and even political development in the 3rd world. It is a story about lost identities of primitive people, overwhelming progression and related changes in the environment.

The film will be released at the end of October 2009. Watch out for the website www.africa-light.com which will be published with further details on 20 October 2009-

crew:

Director / Visual Effects / Editing: Tino Schwanemann, Creative Producer: Stefanie Paul, Camera: Felix Novo De Oliveira and Mathias Prause, Music / Sound Design: Carsten Raabe, Additional Music: Moby, Location Management: Dijongo Zaire, Production Companies: einscommanull in co-operation with Film Academy Baden Wurttemberg

USA: G20 Pittsburgh: Today we start work on the economy and climate

Si alza oggi il sipario sul G20 di Pittsburgh capitale della finanza mondiale che raduna i più grandi capi della terra , che si propone di riscrivere il progetto della finanza mondiale e e dare anche una svolta al commercio del globo.Pittsburgh sarà blindata.Quindi discutere insomma anche dei progressi più o meno fatti sull’argomento . La capitale della Pennsylvania simbolo e polo industriale per eccellenza, é pronta al vertice che si aprirà ufficialmente stasera con una cena.

Per l’Italia , il presidente del Consiglio Silvio Berlusconi e il ministro dell’Economia Giulio Tremonti. Mario Draghi, governatore della Banca d’Italia.

Uno degli argomenti più importanti è anche con quella che negli ultimi mesi è divenuta la vera emergenza: la disoccupazione che è prevista in aumento anche il prossimo anno.Quindi poi argomento spinoso: il problema climatico.

OF DITCHES AND PONDS

OF DITCHES AND PONDS

A Journey Through The Metaphors Of Childhood And Maturity

by

Chris Maser

In memory of Billy Savage, who not only lived by the best ditch in the world and shared it with me when we were children but also started me on a journey to maturity beyond fear. Billy died in 1950, when we were both 12 years old.

I have found, in my sixty-five-plus years, that we humans are engaged in a perpetual practicum saturated with “pop quizzes,” or, if you prefer, unexpected tests, each of which deals with a necessary aspect of our lives. For those of you who are not familiar with the term “practicum,” it is usually thought of as part of a college course that consists of practical work in a particular field. In this case, the course is Life and the particular field is “Living.”

A Pacific treefrog like the ones Billy and I use to catch in our ditch.

I have also found, as I look back over my life, that it has been choreographed by an inner compulsion, of which Mahatma Gandhi said, “The only tyrant I accept in this world is the ‘still small voice’ within.” What the “still small voice” or inner voice is, I don’t know, although some people might call it intuition. Nevertheless, it has guided the decisions in the practicum of my life ever since I can remember. When I say it has guided the decisions in my life, I must admit that, in my youth, I did not always listen to it—and I reaped the consequences of turning a deaf ear or a blind eye to the spiritual path along which my inner voice attempted to guide me. It is as though we are made blind to the future that we may learn to trust.

What, you might ask, are the consequences of straying from the spiritual path? The consequences manifest themselves as the circumstances in life—the “pop quizzes” or unexpected tests—that confront each of us with compelling choices to be made. Like every quiz, there are correct and incorrect answers. In the case of life’s quizzes, however, we do not get a plus or a minus on a material scorecard as a way of indicating that we either passed or failed. Instead, we know we passed when the circumstance goes away never again to return; conversely, we know we failed when the circumstance reappears, often in another guise, which it will continue to do until we respond in such a way that we earn a passing score.

A red-spotted garter snake, like the ones we found along our ditch.

This said, I find that we each have in our lives a few pivotal events that come to the fore as a series of interrelated circumstances. When such an event and its orchestration of circumstances take place in the youth of our lives, it not only informs us and molds us but also helps establish the direction we ultimately take in our Earthly pilgrimage. For me as a child, it was not so much a single, pivotal event that helped to structure my life as much as it was a place in which to feel safe. That place was a humble, roadside ditch.

If you were to ask me why I have written an entire book based on childhood experiences centered on a roadside ditch and adult reflections centered around a garden pond, I would answer that I have found in both the wonders of the Universe. And it is the gift of wonder—the endowment of everyday life—that I would share with you. As Mother Theresa said: “Life is a promise. Fulfill it.”

My garden pond, in whose company I reflected on life.

ENDORSEMENTS:

“This deeply philosophical memoir closely examines that place in all of us where the human world intersects with the natural one. His respect and awe for all life is, in Chris Maser’s case, a true measure of the man. Read this book. It’s for everyone who has ever had a friend or planted a garden.”—Virginia White, Writer and Teacher (former Biologist), Institute for Extended Learning, Community Colleges of Spokane, Washington.

“This marvelous book takes us on a deep journey, from the close, rapt attention of a child’s eye to the long view of life on this planet. It shows us a true way to connect, through the path of inquisitiveness, to our world and our selves.”—Barbara Bash, Author, calligrapher, illustrator, and teacher, Accord, NY.

“Of Ditches and Ponds is a call to remembrance, nested in the ordinary, wondrous landscape of Life. With a naturalist’s eye for detail and a philosopher’s gift of reason, Chris Maser maps the interconnectedness and the moral beauty of earthly forms. A journey of time and space, a memoir of self and matter, this is an inspiring read.”—Doreen Valentine, Acquisitions Editor for Rutgers University Press, Piscataway, NJ; writer; and mother.

A water lily in the pond of my maturity.

––––––––––

Of Ditches And Ponds:  A Journey Through The Metaphors Of Childhood And Maturity. 2006. Woven Strings Publishing, Amarillo, TX. 282 pp. E-Book. 2505KB.

If you want more information about this book, want to purchase it, or want to contact me, visit my website: http://chrismaser.com/index.htm

I spent over 25 years as an active research scientist in natural history and ecology in forest, shrub steppe, subarctic, desert, coastal, and agricultural settings. Today I am an independent author as well as an international lecturer, facilitator in resolving environmental conflicts, vision statements, and sustainable community development. I am also an international consultant in forest ecology and sustainable forestry practices.

I Have Lived, Worked, Consulted, And/Or Lectured In: Austria • Canada • Chile • Egypt • France • Germany • Japan • Malaysia • Nepal • Slovakia • Switzerland • and various settings in the United States.

momento Minsky

Spanish readers

Parece ser que Hyman Minsky un ecomista de Chicago que murió hace dos decadas lo advirtió en su estudio económicos. La especulación en los mercados financieros provoca el colapso de los mismos. En este artículo de elEconomista.es Momento Minsky: las teorías de un desconocido economista explican perfectamente la crisis se explica que es el momento Minsky y las consecuencias que tiene. Parece que este buen hombre en su momento y debido a su procedencia fue tachado de radical y excéntrico por sus teorías basadas en las de John Maynard Keynes, el ahora famoso economista británico y al que todo el mundo venera ahora, ya veremos dentro de unos años.

English readers

It seems to be that Hyman Minsky an ecomista of Chicago who died does two decades he warned it in his economic studies: The speculation on the financial markets provokes the collapse of the same ones. In this article of Boston.com Why capitalism fails is explained what is the ” moment Minsky ” and the consequences that it has. It looks like that this good man in his moment and due to his origin was corrected of radically and eccentrically by his theories based on those of John Maynard Keynes, now famous British economist and whom the whole world venerates now, already we will see in a few years later.

States with the Highest incomes.

Copied from Yahoo News

I found this article really interesting.

Posted by: Lili

Census Bureau reports that Maryland had the highest median income level in 2008, at $70,545, while Mississippi ranked very last with $37,790.

Maryland is the nation’s top-earning state for the third year in a row, with a median household income of $70,545 in 2008, according to a U.S. Census Bureau report released Monday.

The states with highest median incomes are concentrated in the far West and in the Northeast, around the District of Columbia.

More from CNNMoney.com:
• Fat Paychecks: Where Does Your State Rank?
• Which States Have the Longest Commutes to Work?
• Which States Have the Most Uninsured People?

Most of the lowest-earning states are in the South. Mississippi had the lowest median income of just $37,790, while West Virginia ($37,989), Arkansas ($38,815), Kentucky ($41,538), and Alabama ($42,538), round out the bottom five

The four highest earning states after Maryland, are New Jersey, which has a median household income of $70,378, Connecticut ($68,595), Alaska ($68,460) and Hawaii ($67,214).

Real Earning Power

But if you’re thinking of moving to Maryland in search of big bucks think twice. While Maryland’s median income is nearly twice that of Mississippi, the locals there aren’t necessarily walking around with twice as much money in their pockets, because of the difference in the cost of living in each region.

“It’s very important to compare cost of living,” said Erol Yildirim, chief economist for the Council for Community and Economic Research. “Purchasing power is very different for different areas.”

And the cost of living in Bethesda, Md., is about 52% higher than it is in Tupelo, Miss., according to Yildirim. A dozen eggs costs $1.93 in Bethesda, compared with $1.50 in Tupelo, while a loaf of bread is $1.66 compared with $1.37.

And there is a huge difference in housing costs. The average apartment rental in Bethesda is $1,464 a month versus just $512 in Tupelo. And the median home price in Bethesda is $529,707 compared with just $220,000 in Tupelo.

Taking these living expenses into account wipes out much of the advantage of Maryland’s higher income. Once purchasing power is taken into account, Southern and Midwestern states become much better bargains.

Change in Pay

Florida was the only state where median income actually declined, falling 0.01% before adjusting for inflation. Michigan and Montana barely inched up, by about 0.3% in each case. Income in Indiana (1.1%) and Maine (1.5%) also increased very modestly. But with inflation at over 3%, those states were effectively in negative territory.

Louisiana saw the biggest jump in income, up 6.9%. But that may be the result of all the Federal dollars flowing into the area to rebuild it after Katrina. The state’s unemployment rate averaged less than 5% during 2008.

Another big winner was the District of Columbia, which saw median income rise 6.7% in a year when the White House changed hands. Alaska (6.4%), Hawaii (6.3%) and Delaware (6.2%) also recorded solid gains.

Brookings Institute demographer William Frey notes that the current economic downturn may have actually given these median income levels a boost. That’s because when times get tough, many of the lowest-paying jobs disappear, artificially boosting income statistics.

And many of the workers who hold the lowest-paying jobs are immigrants, who are often highly mobile, and may elect to return home and opt out of the U.S. workforce altogether.

Frey notes that in 2008, the percentage of foreign-born U.S. residents fell to 12.5% from 12.6% in 2007, due mostly to a downturn in net immigration from Mexico, said Frey. “When many low income people leave,” said Frey, “median income can go up.”

More Ann Minch "Hero" On The Huffington Hoax...

 I am  amazed that someone who claims to be a “reporter” is continuing to ignore the proclivities of the person he continues to praise and report about…  Once again Arthur Delaney strikes a blow for the Extreme Right Wing End Times Prophecy Armed Militia Movement…  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/21/ann-minch-triumphs-in-cre_n_293423.html

Mr. Delaney should do some actual journalistic investigation before he holds up Ann Minch as a person to be admired… 

She thanks Karl Dessinger a man who claims to have invented the Teabagger movement : http://musings.denninger.net/

 Her youtube subscription list is would be amusing if it wasn’t so frightening to see her being praised in the Huff Post…http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=Rockerchic4God&view=subscriptions

This person claims Judge Sotomeyer participated in Satanic Human Sacrifice: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91UBEwuvqdI&feature=channel
http://www.youtube.com/user/TheForerunner777  

One of her first people to subscribed to produces this stuff:
 http://wersa.yolasite.com/militia.php

  More of what she subscribes too:http://www.youtube.com/user/valano72
http://www.youtube.com/user/TheAlexJonesChannel
http://www.youtube.com/user/changethechange
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-hmXkhNqEw&feature=channel
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=36PQ3C3fGQY&feature=channel_page

Watch these videos Mr. Delaney…  Ann Minch states just before she thanks you that she plans on leading a “Tax Revolt” and not pay her taxes…  Sound familiar? If you lived in Oklahoma it would: http://www.oklahomacitynationalmemorial.org/

 

There´s Nothing "Standard" About The Massachusetts Standard Form Real Estate Purchase And Sale Agreement

Richard D. Vetstein Esq

Although home buyers sign a never ending pile of legal documents to purchase a home, arguably the most important document in the entire transaction is the purchase and sale agreement. In Massachusetts, the purchase and sale agreement most often used is the so-called standard form agreement supplied by the Greater Boston Real Estate Board or one modeled very closely to this form. The “standard” form purchase and sale agreement is, however, far from standard.

From a buyer’s perspective, there are two major problems with the “standard” form purchase and sale agreement:

1. It significantly favors the seller, and
2. It doesn’t adequately address such important issues as seller repairs, septic system/Title V compliance, radon gas, UFFI insulation, lead paint, mortgage rate lock expiration, certain title issues, and buyers’ access to the property while it is under agreement.

There are also deficiencies from a seller’s perspective as well. This is why it’s imperative that home buyers and sellers alike retain a Massachusetts real estate attorney to modify the “standard” form purchase and sale agreement in order to best protect all parties’ rights and remedies, and customize the agreement to the particular aspects of the transaction. This is typically done through a “rider” to the purchase and sales agreement. Often, the buyers’ attorney and the sellers’ attorney will attached two different riders to the agreement.

I’ll outline a few common issues not addressed adequately in the “standard” purchase and sale agreement. (Most of these are from the buyer’s perspective).
Mortgage Contingency

The “standard” purchase and sale agreement does provide a basic mortgage contingency which gives the buyer the option of terminating the agreement if mortgage financing falls through. However, for a buyer, the more specific you are in terms of interest rate, points, name of lending institution and definition of “diligent efforts,” the better. Buyers’ counsel should specify that the buyer will not be required to apply to more than one institutional lender currently making mortgage loans of the type sought by the buyer and that the buyer may terminate the purchase and sale agreement unless the buyer obtains a firm, written commitment for a mortgage loan. Here is a sample rider provision:
MODIFICATION TO PARAGRAPH 26: Application to one such bank or mortgage lender by such date shall constitute “diligent efforts.” If the written loan commitment contains terms and conditions that are beyond BUYER’S reasonable ability to control or achieve, or if the commitment requires BUYER to encumber property other than the subject property, BUYER may terminate this agreement, whereupon any payments made under this agreement shall be forthwith refunded and all other obligations of the parties hereto shall cease and this agreement shall be void without recourse to the parties hereto.
Home Inspection/Repairs

Typically, buyers complete the home inspection process prior to the signing of the purchase and sale agreement, and any inspection contingency provision is deleted from the purchase and sale agreement. What happens if the inspection results are not ready before the P&S signing deadline or if the seller has agreed to perform repairs prior to the closing or give a credit at closing? In this case, a home inspection contingency clause should be added back to the agreement, and any seller repairs or closing credits should be meticulously detailed in the rider.
Septic Systems/Title V

If the home is serviced by an on-site sewage disposal system otherwise known as a septic system, the Massachusetts Septic System Regulations known as Title V requires the inspection of the system within 2 years of the sale of the home. Failed septic systems can cost many thousands of dollars to repair or replace. Thus, buyers would look to be released from the agreement if the septic system fails inspection. Alternatively, buyers could be given the option to close if the seller can repair the septic system during an agreed upon time period, provided that the buyer do not lose their mortgage rate lock.
Radon Gas

Radon is a naturally occurring radioactive gas. The ground produces the gas through the normal decay of uranium and radium. As it decays, radon produces new radioactive elements called radon daughters or decay products which scientists have proven to cause lung cancer. Radon testing should be performed by buyers during the home inspection process. Elevated levels of radon (above 4.0 picoCuries per liter (pCi/l) can be treated through radon remediation systems. The purchase and sale agreement should provide for a radon testing contingency and the buyers’ ability to terminate the agreement if elevated radon levels are found, or the option of having the sellers pay for a radon remediation system.
Lead Paint

Under the Massachusetts Lead Paint Law, buyers of property are entitled to have the property inspected for the presence of lead paint. (Sellers are not required to remove lead paint in a sale situation). Because the abatement of lead paint can be costly, buyers typically look for a right to terminate the purchase and sale agreement if lead paint exists and the abatement/removal of it exceeds a certain dollar threshold. Here is an example of a provision added to the standard form:
LEAD PAINT. Seller acknowledges that the Buyers have a child under six (6) years of age who will live in the premises. In accordance with Massachusetts General Laws, Chapter 111, section 197A, as the premises was constructed prior to 1978, Buyer may have the premises inspected for the presence of lead paint which inspection shall be completed within ten (10) days after the execution of this Agreement, unless extended in writing by the parties. If the inspection reveals the presence of lead paint, the abatement and/or removal of which will cost $2,000 or more, then Buyer may terminate this agreement, whereupon any payments made under this agreement shall be forthwith refunded and all other obligations of the parties hereto shall cease and this agreement shall be void without recourse to the parties hereto. Any lead paint removal or abatement shall be Buyers’ responsibility.
Access

When my wife and I signed the Offer to Purchase on our house, she couldn’t wait to get in there with her tape measure, paint chips and fabric swatches. Oftentimes overlooked, but a cause of friction is buyers’ ability to access the house prior to the closing. To avoid such friction, an access clause should be added to the purchase and sale agreement giving the buyer reasonable access at reasonable time with advance notice to the sellers–it’s still their house after all.

These are just a few of the issues not adequately addressed by the “standard” form purchase and sale agreement. There are many more. I urge you to consult a qualified real estate attorney to help you draft the ideal Massachusetts “standard” purchase and sale agreement.

U.S. leading index at 1-1/2-yr high, loan defaults up

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A measure of the U.S. economy's prospects scaled a 1-1/2-year high in August but a record rise in home loan defaults cast doubts over the durability of the apparent recovery from recession.

The Conference Board said on Monday its index of leading economic indicators rose 0.6 percent to 102.5, the highest level since January 2008. It had advanced 0.9 percent in July.

It was the fifth straight month that the gauge, which is supposed to forecast economic trends six to nine months ahead, had increased. The gain was a touch below the 0.7 percent rise economists had forecast.

"These data add further evidence to the growing view and our long-held belief that the official end date of the recession is likely to be sometime in third quarter," said Michelle Girard, an economist at RBS in Greenwich, Connecticut.

Separate monthly data from credit bureau Equifax Inc (EFX.N) showed a record 7.58 percent of U.S. homeowners with mortgages were at least 30 days late on payments in August, up from 7.32 percent in July.

U.S. financial markets were little moved on the data, with analysts saying investors were focused on the outcome of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting to be held Tuesday and Wednesday.

The Fed is expected to leave benchmark overnight lending rates unchanged near zero, but the statement accompanying the rate decision will be scrutinized for clues as to when the U.S. central bank will start withdrawing some of the support it is lending to the economy.

UNEMPLOYMENT TO SLOW RECOVERY

While economists agree the United States is starting to emerge from its worst recession since the 1930s — with a solid rebound seen in the third quarter — there are concerns that stubbornly high unemployment could undermine the recovery.

The unemployment rate raced to a 26-year high of 9.7 percent last month and is expected to peak just above 10 percent early next year allstate insurance.

A restocking of inventories, which were drawn down to record lows to adjust to sluggish demand, and government programs, such as incentives for first-time homebuyers and some motor vehicle buyers, are expected to drive growth in the third quarter.

In August, the U.S. economy's prospects were lifted by rising supplier deliveries, stock market prices, building permits and consumer expectations, according to the Conference Board, a private sector research group.

Analysts said separate indexes in the report also offered some encouragement. The coincident economic index was unchanged at 99.8 in August, while the lagging index slipped 0.1 percent to 110.2 — pushing the so-called coincident-to-lagging ratio up for a fifth straight month.

The coincident-to-lagging ratio tends to trough and turn up well before the official ending of recessions.

"This continues to suggest strongly that this recession is over. But whether or not the economy can keep grinding forward and at what speed is still a big question mark," said Jennifer Lee, an economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.

Real money supply, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance and manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods were a drag on the main leading index in August. Weekly manufacturing hours and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials were steady.

"Our view is that it's not a sustainable (recovery) because that's a lot of special factors … By the end of the year we should see slower momentum," said Brian Bethune, U.S. economist, IHS Global Insight in Waltham, Massachusetts.

(Additional reporting by Nick Zieminski, Editing by Andrea Ricci)

U.S. leading index at 1-1/2-yr high, loan defaults up

The 1929 & 2007 Bear Market Race to The Bottom Week 101 of 149

Mark J. Lundeen
mlundeen2@Comcast.net
18 September 2009 

Color Key to text below
Boiler Plate in Blue Grey
New Weekly Commentary in Black 

Below is my BEV chart for the Bear Race. 

 

 

The gap between the 1929-32 Bear, and our Bear, is getting wider.  As long as this market continues heading up in little baby-steps, this is my story and I’m sticking to it! 

This is really excellent market action.  But we are still in a Bear Market, and will continue to be in one until reality forces US balance sheets to recognize the massive loan losses from past “Liquidity Injections.” Consumer, Metals and Energy Prices must also raise in proportion to past, current and future US Currency Creation. 

Stock Market cannot have a true Bull Market, a market based upon profits and losses, until the manipulation by the Fed and US Treasury ends, and we * all * pass through a world of pain.   

Below is the 8-Count & DJIA BEV Chart

 

The chart above is one boring chart, and that’s fine with me.  Look at the daily percentage moves in the table below.  No big up or down-days.  In fact this market is mostly up-days.  This is excellent market action, but we should expect a correction soon.

 

Daily Volatility Statistics for Wk 101

 

 

DJIA

% Move

DJIA 2%

8-Count

NYSE

70% A-D

Monday

9626.80

+0.22%

0

-

Tuesday

9683.41

+0.59%

0

-

Wednesday

9791.71

+1.12%

0

-

Thursday

9783.92

-0.08%

0

-

Friday

9820.20

+0.37%

0

-

 

Historical Daily Volatility is < 1.0%

Source Dow Jones

 

NYSE’s 52Wk Highs & Lows

NYSE 52Wk Highs and Lows are lagging indicators.  A stock can change from being an Advance to a Decline stock in a single day.  But it’s not so simple for a stock to go from one price extreme to the other during a 52 Week period.  Let’s take a look at NYSE 52Wk Highs and Lows from 1950 to 2009.  I’ve displayed the data as net 52 Week High-Lows, as a percentage of total shares traded daily on the NYSE.

 

Net NYSE’s 52Wk Highs are rising again.  No mystery here.  The largest percentage of NYSE 52 Wk Daily Lows from 1950 to 2009 happened almost a year ago.  On 10 October 2008, we see 87.45% of the Stocks trading on the NYSE hit their 52 Week Lows.  An amazing number!  But note how this occurred during the DJIA BEV -40% Bear Market.  Last March when the DJIA became the #2 All-Time Bear since 1885, only 25.86% of the NYSE’s Shares hit their 52 Week Lows.  It seems that October’s BEV -40% bottom cleared the deck.

The chart below, with the Green DJIA BEV Plot, tells the story better than I can.  The 2002 Bear Market was nothing special as far as NYSE 52 Wk High and Lows were concerned – strange.

 

It has been almost a year since the DJIA’s BEV -40%, and 6 months since its BEV -50% Bear bottoms.  With the nice Bullish rise in the market, expect seeing a dramatic increase in the NYSE 52Wk Highs soon.  This assumes that the stock market continues to increase.  If it does, but the NYSE 52Wk Highs fail to rise dramatically, it’s a sign that the general stock market is not doing as well as the shares included in the stock indexes we watch everyday.  That would not be a sign of health in the stock market, and another indication of market manipulation by the “Policy Makers.”

But why pass judgment now?  I’ll publish this chart in about a month or so and we will see what’s happening in this important internal market indicator.

The Lundeen Bear Box and Step Sum is below.

 

As of today, (18 Sept 2009) the DJIA has increased in price 1-day more than it decreased since the beginning of the 2007-09 Bear.  But the Step Sum only looks at whether the DJIA goes up or down.  How much the DJIA moves each day is something the Step Sum ignores.  So it’s not surprising seeing the DJIA well below its October 2007 highs.  But I have to admit, from Day-467 (17 August) to Day-490 (18 September) the rise in the Step Sum has been huge.  How much longer can this continue without a correction?

If the DJIA & its Step Sum continues to rise, I certainly want to come back to my NYSE 52Wk Highs and Lows chart a month from now.

The Step Sum is an indicator of market sentiment.  When the underlying sentiment is bullish, the Step Sum rises.  When bearish, it falls.

Think of the “Step Sum” as the sum total of all the up and down price “steps” in a data series over time; an Advance – Decline Line for a data series derived from the data series itself.  Logically, bull markets will have more net up days, while bear markets will have more net down days.   Understanding the Step Sum is no harder than that.

Gold & DJIA Bull Market’s First 443 Weeks

On a weekly basis, Gold’s Bull Market has lasted 443 weeks since its start in Barron’s 02 April 2001 issue.  Never has a major Bull Markets progressed so silently, as have Gold’s and Silver’s for the past 8.5 years.

Gold’s Year End Closing Price

 

Year

Price

Gain

1999

287.30

 

2000

273.90

-4.66%

2001

276.50

0.95%

2002

349.30

26.33%

2003

409.25

17.16%

2004

441.10

7.78%

2005

505.00

14.49%

2006

620.50

22.87%

2007

833.75

34.37%

2008

880.80

5.64%

      2000/08 Total: 321.58%

    

Currently in September 2009, with Gold at $1020 an ounce, Gold has increased 372% since 2000.

 

From 2000 to 2009, What Other Investment outperformed Gold?

 

Source Barron’s

 

 

Note: in my weekly data files, my data is dated by the Barron’s issue it came from.  Doing this allows me to go directly to the issue in question if I later detect an irregularity in my data.   

As gold has been in a Bull Market for the past 443 weeks, I thought it would be interesting comparing Gold’s first 443 weeks with the DJIA’s.

-  Gold (Barron’s Issues Dates: 02 April 2001 – 21 Sep 2009)

-  DJIA (Barron’s Issues Dates: 09 Aug 1982 – 28 Jan 1991)

 

The above chart proves the absurdity of any assertion the Gold Market is overvalued.  In past reports, I’ve claimed the DJIA in 1991 was overvalued, based upon its Historic Dividend Cycle.  But I’ve never seen anyone else make this claim.  So in 2009, seeing the Gold Market’s ascent in its first 443 weeks tracking closely to, yet below the DJIA Bull’s track for most of this same period, on what basis can Stock Bulls now claim Gold and Silver are overpriced? 

If Gold continues to follow the DJIA’s lead, in 8-years (the 2000 DJIA top) Gold would be at $3,814.  Personally, I believe Gold will do many times better than that, and we will not have to wait 8-years to see the Golden Bull leave the DJIA’s 1982-00 Bull far behind.  In the chart above, we may be witnessing Gold’s breakaway move from the DJIA now.

Let’s take a quick analysis of the DJIA from 1982 to 1991, the DJIA Bull’s first 443 weeks.

For the first few months of the DJIA’s 1982-00 Bull, (Red Plot Above) few people, in or out of the stock market expected much from the DJIA’s piercing of the 1000 level.  Their skepticism was warranted.  After all, from 1966 to 1982, the 1000 DJIA had disappointed 5-times before, as we see below.

 

But by Wk100 (02 July 1984, DJIA @ 1,132, & up 44%), the general market consensus was the DJIA was in a Bull Market, with few market commentators expecting the DJIA to fall below 1000 again.  That was a good call, as the DJIA then started a 200% rise that terminated in the Crash of October 1987.

At the bottom of the 87 Crash, (Wk279) the financial industry started a hugely successful, 13-year advertising blitz making the case to the general public that it was possible to retire in comfort by “investing in stocks for the long-term.”  The bottom of the October 87 Crash also proved to be an excellent low-risk entry point for the adventurous.  In the chart below, we see the NYSE’s Daily Volume increased significantly in the next few years.  A sure sign that the public had fallen in love with what Wall Street was selling.

Look at the chart below.  We can see the day in August 1982 when the DJIA Bull Market started.  Look at the jump in NYSE Volume.  Bull Markets feed off volume!

 

The point I’m making is, by Wk 443 in the DJIA’s Bull Market, financial advisors and market commentators were fully committed in promoting stocks as a means of increasing one’s wealth. 

After 8.5 Years, the Gold Bull’s 443rd week, Gold and Silver have closely followed the DJIA’s Bull with absolutely * no support * from Wall Street.  This is amazing Bullish by itself, but look at what the Precious Metals still have coming their way in September 2009:

-         The Federal Government is expanding bank credit to a banking system the US Treasury has bailed out once already.

-         The US National Debt is rising to obscene levels.  

 

Still, it’s rare finding an “investment expert” who doesn’t wince on TV at the thought of purchasing actual gold, or silver, as a hedge for the coming devaluation of the US dollar.

Why should this be? 

No Defaulting on Contracts made with the Devil!

The Washington Political Class and the Financial Industry made a pact with the Devil.   The deal was that they could do anything they wanted; to anyone they wanted to do it to.  The only consequences of their misdeeds would be more power and wealth for the “Policy Makers.”  After reading this clause in the Devil’s contract, the greedy cretins saw no reason to read further, and signed on the dotted line at the bottom of the contract.  Too bad they didn’t read a little further down, as the More Power and Wealth in Payment for Bad Deeds Clause was only to last for a few decades, after which the Hell-to-Pay Clause becames effective. 

Since the 1960s, Wall Street has transformed itself from a center of capital formation, financing industry and commerce, into a den of thieves.  For the past 10 years, (maybe I should say 20 years) Wall Street has spent its energy making massive financial deals of no beneficial economic consequence.  They’ve become issuers of financial assets of known (to Wall Street) bad faith, and purveyors of fraudulent risk management scams in the hundreds of trillions of dollars.  What were the commissions paid to Wall Street banks for derivative sales whose notional value exceeds 1-quadrillion dollars? 

I don’t know.  But no one steals from widows & orphans, on an industrial scale, without kicking back some of the loot to Washington’s political class.  It’s just not done!  I’m making no allegations of illegal activity.  The lawyers in Congress made sure would get their cut in a completely legal manner.

Wall Street and Washington in the era of Greenspan, went far astray from the days when Barron’s posted Clarence Barron’s credo in the top of every issue.

“Finance: The Application of Money to Practical Ends”

- Barron’s Masthead Credo from its 1920’s issues

The fact is, after decades of inflationary “monetary policy” there is now massively more money locked up in dubious financial assets than there is stuff for these assets to purchase, * at current prices *.  The Hell-to-Pay Clause comes into effect as consumer and energy prices rise to reflect this fact.  Sorry to have to inform you, but there is no loophole around this clause.  But it seems that China is trying hard to find a way to avoid paying the Devil his due.  It’s a pity, but this is simply not possible.  China would love to sell their US Treasury Bonds, but to whom, and for what?

The “Policy Makers” Gold Problem

Seeing wealth flow out of their paper assets, and into asset classes too diminutive for bloated Wall Street to fit into, signals the beginning of the end of our current era’s inflationary business-as-usual financial system.  The Hell-to-Pay clause is about to become operative.  There is not much the “Policy Makers” can do about it either, other than to continue to lie, and steal from Peter to pay Paul.  It goes without saying, Wall Street and Washington will continue collecting their commissions and taxes for “Services Rendered.”

The viability of tens of trillions of Wall Street’s (and the World’s) stocks, bonds and “risk management instruments” are increasingly seen as questionable assets by foreign central banks and forward-thinking investors.  For sometime, many foreign financial interests have stopped thinking about how they can they obtain more of what Wall Street is selling.  Their current concerns are what should be done with the stock, bonds and derivatives they already have.  Gold and Silver prices are rising for a reason; smart money wants out of US$ assets.

To understand the difficulties this shift in the flow of money, from financial assets to commodities, presents to Wall Street and Washington, we need only examine the US Gold and Silver Eagle markets.  Here is a link and a table for the yearly mintages for US Eagles from 1986-07. 

Total Mintage of US Gold and Silver Eagles

1986 to 2007

 

YEAR

SILVER EAGLES

GOLD EAGLES

 

 

1-oz

1/2-oz

1/4-oz

1/10-oz

1986

5,393,005

1,362,650

599,566

726,031

912,609

1987

11,442,335

1,045,500

131,255

269,255

580,266

1988

5,004,646

465,000

45,000

49,000

159,500

1989

5,203,327

415,790

44,829

81,789

264,790

1990

5,840,210

373,210

31,000

41,000

210,210

1991

7,191,066

243,100

24,100

36,100

165,200

1992

5,540,068

275,000

54,404

59,546

209,300

1993

6,763,762

480,192

73,324

71,864

210,709

1994

4,227,319

221,633

62,400

72,650

206,380

1995

4,672,051

200,636

53,474

83,752

223,025

1996

3,603,386

189,148

39,287

60,318

401,964

1997

4,295,004

664,508

79,605

108,805

528,266

1998

4,847,549

1,468,530

169,029

309,929

1,344,520

1999

7,408,640

1,505,026

263,013

309,829

2,750,338

2000

9,239,132

433,319

79,287

564,232

569,153

2001

9,001,711

143,605

48,047

128,964

269,147

2002

10,539,026

222,029

70,027

62,027

230,027

2003

8,495,008

416,032

79,029

74,029

245,029

2004

8,882,754

417,019

98,040

72,014

250,016

2005

8,891,025

356,555

80,023

72,015

300,043

2006

10,676,522

237,510

66,005

60,004

285,006

2007

9,028,036

140,016

47,002

34,004

190,010

TOTALS:

156,185,582

11,276,008

2,237,746

3,347,157

10,505,508

This is just US Mintage.  Had I included mintages from Canada and other National and Private Mints, it would still be obvious that the Gold and Silver Coin and Bar Markets can not absorb Tens of $Trillions Fleeing from Paper Assets without sending Gold and Silver Prices to levels Few People could believe possible today.

 

Source CMI Gold and Silver

Graphic by Mark J Lundeen

 

After decades of inflating financial asset valuations, the precious metals market of actual coins and bars, is microscopic compared to the market capitalization of the world’s bond and stock markets.  If only 5% of the wealth currently contained in financial assets exited the stock and bond markets (and US AAA Rated Single-Family Mortgages) entered the physical gold and silver market, the price of metal would explode!

The rise in Gold, is signaling the decline of the US$ and financial asset’s dollar valuations.  A paper asset double whammy.  Wall Street and Washington will lose most of their influence internationally and domestically.  That has always been the result of monetary inflation!  The quote below is from William Durant, concerning 10th Century China.

“Such were the sources of that flood of paper money which, ever since, has alternatively accelerated and threatened the economic life of the world.”
-William Durant: Our Oriental Heritage, (1935) pg 780

In money’s four thousand year history, this is but one example of how monetary inflation has devastated an economy.  So why are the current schools of Keynesian economics ignorant of this history?  What if they’re not?  Maybe the Greenspans and Bernankes of the world know exactly what they are doing.  The best article on this subject was written by Alan Greenspan himself.

Seeing gold above $1,500, and rising, as US Long Bonds Yield’s exceed 6%, will signal the beginning of the end of business as usual for the “Policy Makers.”  

 

From 1975 to 2001, the price of Gold and the yield on the US Long T-Bond were in a tight relationship.  In the chart above, we see that after 2001, as Gold started its rise, US T-Bond yields went their own way, to lows not seen since the 1950s.  I expect the decoupling of Gold with the US Long Bond yield is only temporary.  This chart strongly suggests (demands?) that interest rates will rise significantly in the future. 

 

If Gold has exceeded its 1980’s highs, I expect to see the yields on US Long T-Bonds to exceed their 1981 highs of 15.04%.  If this should happen, the Stock, Bond and Real Estate Markets would be devastated.  But it’s darn bullish for Gold and Silver! 

I’m not cheering for the Bear!  But things were done by the best and the brightest in academia, high finance, Congress, and the Federal Reserve.  They sowed our economy with inflation, and we will reap the consequences.  It really makes no sense standing on the tracks as a freight train comes speeding down the line.  Step out of the way!  That’s my opinion anyways.  CNBC will tell you something else.  But as always, the decision is yours.

COMEX Gold Default and the Price of Gold

COMEX Gold and its “Open Interest” (number of active contracts trading) are only paper contracts, but at present, they are good as gold in the minds of many. A fact in common with all futures markets is that most contracts traded are ultimately settled in cash.  So delivery of the contract is possible but not usually demanded.   After all, who wants 5,000 bushels of Corn dumped on their driveway?  

This is legitimate, as most traders currently live or die in a world that counts its profits and loses in US Dollars.  However, with the current management of America’s fiscal and monetary affairs, the day is coming when gold traders will stop trading gold at the COMEX as a means of gaining more US Dollars, and begin to see their COMEX contracts as a vehicle to exchange their undesirable dollars for gold.

The problem this creates is that the COMEX doesn’t have sufficient gold in its vaults to deliver actual gold to settle all the gold contracts being traded.  There is nothing unethical in the COMEX doing business this way, as COMEX Gold Contracts have always been understood primarily as hedges against dollar losses in the Gold Market.  This is true in all futures markets.  But the possibility of actual delivery was always there, if seldom used by most traders.  If the Obama Administration and Congress continues to inflate the US money supply to worthlessness, the day is coming when gold traders will refuse US Dollars, and demand settlement in gold.

This will cause a technical default in the Gold Futures markets.  It’s a default, as the terms of the contract cannot be honored by the short side counterparties, or the exchange.  But only a technical default, as the CFTC will allow the COMEX to refuse delivery of gold, and insist that traders demanding physical gold accept US dollars from their Wall Street counterparties – or receive nothing in settlement. 

This recently happened with Barrick Gold’s counterparties, although it happened outside of the jurisdiction of the CFTC and the COMEX.  Barrick owed actual gold, as payment for its gold-loans it had taken during the 1990s and early 2000s.  Barrick, the largest gold miner in the world, was allowed to pay back its gold loans in US Dollars.  The original gold lent to Barrick came from various Global Central Banks’ gold reserves, and I suspect from the US Treasury’s gold vaults too.

 

What a technical default on the COMEX will do to the price of gold is not hard to understand.  If traders are refused gold, but instead handed a check, payable in dollars, for settlement on their gold contracts, these gold traders will convert their dollars into gold at coin shops and bullion dealers.  That is a very tiny door for all those dollars to squeeze through!  A default at the COMEX will rocket the price of gold to dizzying heights.  How much impact this will have on the price of gold can be understood in the following example.

From 1986 to 2007, (21 Years, sorry I don’t have data for 2008 & 09) the US Mint used 14,282,221 ounces of gold to mint its 1oz and lesser weight Gold Eagle Coins, as per the table above.

In the last CFTC Report available at the time of writing my report, there were 451,713 contracts in the COMEX Gold’s Open Interest; each contract is for 100 ounces of gold. That represents a potential claim of 45,171,300 million ounces of gold trading in NY daily for the week of 08-Sep-2009.

Ratio of Real Gold to Comex Paper Gold 21 Years of Gold Eagle Production

14,282,221

Paper Gold Ounces Traded On Comex

45,171,300

Ounces Paper to Ounces of Real Gold

3.16

21 Years of US Gold Eagle Production (1986-07) is only 1/3  of the Paper Gold that Traded at the COMEX in Early September 2009

 

Sources:  CMI Gold & Silver & COMEX

Graphic by Mark J Lundeen

 

The 21-year mintage of US Gold Eagles, (1986-07) is not the entire world’s supply of gold, nor is the COMEX the only market in the world, where paper gold contracts trade.  But the world purchases Gold Eagles and trades paper gold in New York at the COMEX.  It’s interesting seeing the ratio of 3.16 ounces of COMEX Paper Gold to each ounce of actual gold in Gold Eagles.  I expect this 3.16 ratio of paper to actual gold to be very low.  A ratio of 50:1, or greater, might be more appropriate, as there are many other forms of paper gold other than COMEX contracts, like the gold-loans Barrick Gold defaulted on.  This same analogy is also true for the Silver Market, but most likely even more so!

Ultimately, I expect purchase of Gold & Silver Eagles (or any physical form of gold and silver) will prove to be a wiser decision, than trading paper gold on the COMEX.  What Congress, President Obama, as well as the US Treasury and Federal Reserve are doing right now, will ensure I’m proven correct.

Mark J Lundeen
18 September 2009

Preoccupations: For Writing Software, a Buddy System

I’M a programmer at Hashrocket, a Web development firm in Florida. Our style of working is called pair programming, which has been popular for years in some software design companies. Two of us sit side by side at a computer workstation to develop a program that is the backbone of an interactive Web site.

One person does the actual writing, or coding, and the other person checks it, corrects it and offers suggestions as it’s being written. Programmers, or software developers, refer to these roles as driver and navigator.

It might sound as if the person writing the programming code would find it distracting to work this way, but it’s not. It’s a collaborative effort, and that’s the beauty of it. Proponents believe it saves a company time and money. Bugs can be found more quickly, and the code is written more efficiently when two people create it simultaneously. In this case, two heads are definitely better than one.

Consider the game “Where’s Waldo,” in which a cartoon character is hidden in an intricate design. Most people can eventually find Waldo after poring over the drawing. Similarly, when programmers check code for errors, it takes time to examine the logic and find mistakes.

Now imagine if someone sat next to the artist from the very beginning. Obviously, the onlooker should be able to find Waldo more easily. The character would stand out. In the same way, one programmer looking for errors in code as another writes it can follow the logic in real time. Ideally, the navigator immediately catches anything that is incorrect. My colleagues agree with this analogy.

Part of our job is to attend design meetings with new clients so we understand what they want, but when we’re developing software programs we work in pairs 100 percent of the time. Teams are assigned at our daily 9 a.m. meeting.

We try to work together at least one full day and we often spend several days together. We switch roles, too, and we constantly change partners, which is called promiscuous pairing. People have different talents, and this way the expertise is spread around.

To me, pair programming is the only way to work. Writing code is not only scientific, it’s also a creative process. I get writer’s block sometimes. To be able to collaborate with someone is great.

When senior and junior developers are paired, junior programmers might feel intimidated. If this happens, the junior programmer might be asked to start as the driver, which may encourage the senior person to become a better teacher. It’s also a way to bring junior programmers up to speed quickly, because they benefit from the more senior employee’s knowledge.

When programmers interview for a job here, we ask that they spend a week with us, and we pair them with as many people as possible. Besides checking their skill level, we want to see if we could all work side by side with them for weeks at a time and if they’re a fit with the company. It gives them a chance to check us out, too.

Our programmers exhibit idiosyncrasies that might be found in any workplace, such as one person leaving a work area messy, and the germaphobe who disinfects everything. On certain days, people may not be the best partners, like the day I was preoccupied because my dog was at the vet. If that occurs, the other person can usually snap their partner back to center line.

People working so close have occasional personal conflicts, too. Hashrocket provides our workspace, office furniture, mouse pads and anything else we need, but we use our own laptops.

Once two of our programmers had a falling out over a keyboard function. The navigator wanted to remap the caps lock key as a control key for when they switched roles. But it was the driver’s laptop, and he didn’t like that idea. When the driver went to the restroom, the navigator changed the key anyway, and the two had a disagreement. They came to terms when the navigator agreed that the person who owns the laptop gets to decide the computer key function.

The ability to pair program all the time was a selling point for my taking this job. Previously, I worked for an I.T. group at a government agency in another state. I tried to get buy-in for pair programming there, but we were allowed to do it only occasionally because of the perceived drawbacks. State governments have tight budgets, so it was a hard sell. Some people can’t believe it saves money for two people to do a job one person can do.

THIS style of programming all day every day is exhausting, but it makes me more disciplined. It’s easy for a programmer working alone to give in to distractions — to check e-mail, Twitter or Facebook, for example — when confronted with a problem. We’re on social media a lot anyway, because we need to stay current, but many people take five-minute breaks every half hour, and that’s the recommended time for accessing Twitter or the Internet.

That schedule of working 25 minutes and then taking a 5-minute break is a time management technique called Pomodoro, which means “tomato” in Italian. Every once in a while a programmer won’t stop after 25 minutes and we’ll hear someone say, “Respect the tomato.”

As told to Patricia R. Olsen.

Preoccupations: For Writing Software, a Buddy System

Economic Turnaround? Economic Turnaround? Apparently A Turnaround Means 10% Unemployment

President Obama on Saturday continued his administration’s careful efforts to take credit for the slowly improving economy, using his radio address to tout the economic turnaround since world leaders met in London in April.

At the time of the G-20 summit, the world’s economic situation was dire, Obama said in the radio address. The meeting in London marked “a crisis that required unprecedented international cooperation to jumpstart the world’s economies and help break the downward spiral that enveloped all our nations,” he said.

Kazandibi tarifi, Kazandibi nasıl yapılır ?

Kazandibi Tarifi

Kazandibi tarifi, Kazandibi nasıl yapılır ?

Hazırlama Süresi: 15

Pişirme Süresi: 25

Kişi Sayısı: 8

Malzemesi:

8 su bardağı süt 4 yemek kaşığı pirinç unu 2 yemek kaşığı patates nişastası 2 yemek kaşığı tozşeker 1 paket vanilya 6 yemek kaşığı pudra şekeri

Tarifi:

• Sütle şekeri kaynatın.

• Bir bardak suyun içine pirinç unu ve nişastayı atıp iyice ezin.

• Hızlı hızlı karıştırarak süte ilave edin.

• Karıştırarak koyu bir muhallebi elde edin.

• Muhallebi koyulaşmaya başlayınca vanilyayı da atıp karıştırın.

• Mikserde muhallebiyi 5 dakika çırpıp bekletin.

• Muhallebi tepsisine pudra şekerinin yarısını tuz serper gibi serpip yayın.

• Ocağın üstünde pudra şekerini kahverengi olana kadar yakın.

• Soğutup tekrar üstüne kalan pudra şekerini dökün.

• Üstüne muhallebi döküp buzdolabında 3 saat bekletin.

• Soğuduktan sonra büyük dilimler kesip, spatula yardımıyla rulolar yapıp servis tabağına alın.

A "Couples Retreat" into Blandsville

Hollywood is a business. While many people think of the engine of America’s movie industry as a sparkling gold-plated driver of dreams in bright spotlights, it is a catalyst of and victim to capitalism at the end of the day. It employs millions of people, funnels billions more into economies around the world, and needs money-making product to sustain its gross, bloated chassis. Nowhere is Hollywood’s dependency more evident than the mainstream movie, a calculated product of famous actors/actresses, by-the-numbers plots and screenwriting, test-screenings and marketing push for awareness.

All of these components are whittled down into something palatable to the masses, a bland concoction of beige that goes down smooth and doesn’t upset stomachs or sensibilities. A prime example: Couples Retreat.

Couples Retreat is a movie with bankable stars, well-worn plotlines and cliches up the yin-yang. The story of four married couples at a resort to work on their relationships seems like territory that has been traveled long before, and could stand to be shaken up. With comedic talents like Jason Bateman (Arrested Development, Extract) and Fred Claus’s Vince Vaughn (somehow branching out from flavorless Christmas comedies like Four Christmases) and a screenplay co-written by Jon Favreau (Iron Man, Swingers) and Vaughn, it’s amazing how banal AND offensive this movie looks. Want to see the object of ire? Check this out:

Vince Vaughn looks like he's afraid for his life. Or his waning credibility. Whatever.

From this 30-second clip, there are examples of:

- Fish out of water syndrome: witnessed by the couples arriving in the tropical paradise and meeting Stanley “with a C.” We sho’ ain’t in Kansas no mo’!

- Beautiful women: The Charlie’s Angels-like shot of three of the female leads (there should be a fourth; more on that later) walking towards the cameras is designed to bring on instant wood in the male population. “Ooh, they have on bikini’s! Time to ditch that Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue!” Yawn.

- Aloof natives: Jean Reno, actor of better films like Leon, is cast as the zen-like, culture-clashing employee, talking about the “circle of life” when our heroes are surrounded by sharks in the water. Oh, foreigners. They will never understand America’s love of xenophobia.

The Asian-inspired prisoner jumpsuits are a reminder: this movie is torture.

- Homophobia: With the bellow of “Who is ready to stretch their limits?” it is the male viewer’s warning to suck their sphincters tight! The greased-up yoga instructor (Carlos Ponce?, Deuce Bigalow: European Jungle), clad in a Speedo and air-humping Bateman’s face, practically begs the viewer to gasp in disgust and hold their fingers to the screen in a cross symbol. We get it, marketers: suggestive male-on-male humping is yucky!

- Black Stereotypes: Nothing spells olive branches of racial inclusion like black penis jokes! When the couples are asked to disrobe by Reno (also wearing a Speedo), it’s time to once again go to the well for tired jokes. Veteran comedic actor and token black lead Faizon Love mentions that he doesn’t “have any draws on” (Get it? Because black people only refer to their underwear as “draws!” It’s like they speak another language!), which leads to eventually being coaxed into removing said “draws.” Cue WASP-esque Kristen Bell to gasp in shock at the sight of unleashed anaconda, white males (Bateman, Favreau and Vaughn) discomforted in their supposed penile inadequacy, and Vaughn later rolling with the punches. BOOM: THAT’S how you pander to middle America!

Two of those fabled colored people

- Party Over Here!: Since it all takes place on a jumpin’ tropical island, the last few seconds show vacationers bumpin’ and grindin’. What a way to polish over the last 27 seconds of monotony: “Hey film-goers, this movie is tedious and lazy, but there’s a party over here!”

- Lack of People of Color: Forget that most mainstream Hollywood movies shoehorn in a few people of ethnicity to appeal to those colored demographics: where the hell is the wife of Faizon Love’s character, Tasha Smith (Tyler Perry’s Meet the Browns, You, Me and Dupree)? In between shots of pasty, flabby guts, enough fire for a Michael Bay movie and blue water, there are no mentions that half of the fourth couple is absent. With a strong black woman like Michelle Obama as First Lady of the United States, there should be no reason for America to fear those scary Negro ladies. (*Psst: they still do.*) Hey, maybe she’s invisible! Maybe she doesn’t like the sun, which would be even funnier if this movie had any sense of irony. But nah, she’s not there, like the marketers were like, “She won’t sell to the non-blacks.” Did you know that up-and-coming comedic actor Ken Jeong (The Hangover, Knocked Up) is in this movie, too? You wouldn’t know it by the commercial.

A 30-second commercial is not a lot to go on for judging a 107-minute movie, and yet it says a lot. As commercials are made and broadcast to sell a product, the TV spot for Couples Retreat shows a movie that will not challenge the average moviegoer’s preconceptions. This is comfort food for the mainstream audience, and a theoretical box-office slam dunk for a movie studio, because of those reasons stated above. And every dollar that goes towards viewing it supports that Hollywood machine that churns out these offerings of banality. Enjoy!

Catching up with reality

Markets have had an exhilarating run up over recent weeks.  Since the start of the month the S&P 500 has risen by close to 7%,gaining around 58% from its March low, as the evidence of global economic turnaround has strengthened and the outlook for earnings improved.

Nonetheless, the rally in equities has meant that valuations are starting to look stretched again. For instance the price / earnings ratio on the S&P 500 has risen to its highest level since January 2004, perhaps hinting at the need for a degree of investor caution in the days and weeks ahead.

Other factors aside from the pace of the move also call for some restraint to market optimism such as the potential for escalation in trade tensions between the US and China, the imposition of regulations on banks and the timing of reversal of extreme stimulus measures. 

As the panic has left markets over recent months volatility has eased as reflected in the VIX index which has dropped to around its lowest level since September 2008, just before it spiked massively higher in a matter of weeks in the wake of the Lehman’s blow up. 

This has been almost perfectly echoed in the move in currency volatility, which has dropped to around the levels last seen a year ago for major currencies.  These levels are not quite pre-crisis levels but for the most part pre-date the collapse of Lehman Brothers, reversing almost all the spike in risk aversion that took place from a year ago. 

It is probably not too much of a stretch to state that having expunged the shock of Lehmans and the worst fears about the global economy from measures of risk and volatility the room for further improvements may be somewhat more limited.  This may be countered by the fact that economic data continues to deliver positive surprises relative to consensus, providing fuel for a further rally in risk appetite. 

However, a lot of good news must surely be in the price by now and it is likely that even the most bearish of forecasters has to acknowledge that an upswing in activity is underway. This ought to ensure that consensus forecasts catch up with reality, leaving less room for positive surprises and perversely less support for equity markets. 

The rally in risk appetite and equity markets has taken its toll on the US dollar which has had a gruelling few weeks during which the US dollar index (a basket of currencies versus USD including EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK and CHF) has hit new lows almost on daily basis.  Any pause in dollar selling driven by a softer tone to equities is likely to provide better opportunities for investors to take short positions in the currency given that little else has changed in terms of USD sentiment.   How far can the dollar drop?  Well for a start the April 2008 low around 71.329 for the USD index beckons and after that its into uncharted territory.

Prime time for the ‘crank’ alternative | brokers and advisers who distrust the whole structure of the economy and markets and believe that returns can only be made by exploiting the inherent flaws

Phil Davis

Financial Times

Tuesday, Sept 15th, 2009

In the wake of the worst financial crisis in recent memory, is there an opportunity for unconventional schools of thought to force their way into the investing consciousness?

The investment industry is spotted with “cranks” – fund managers, brokers and advisers who distrust the whole structure of the economy and markets and believe that returns can only be made by exploiting the inherent flaws. (They are distinct from the large number of fund managers who adopt “contrarian” market views.)

Some of the “cranks” are given labels such as “perma bear” or “doctor doom” and include investors such as Marc Faber, the late Tony Dye and Nouriel Roubini. Others are simply ignored. Typically, they manage or advise modest amounts of assets and command a niche, but loyal, following. But in the US, in particular, there are some signs that the investment orthodoxy is starting to come under pressure from these outsiders following recent sharp losses in portfolios.

Peter Schiff, of Connecticut-based Euro Pacific Capital, an investment house credited with having predicted the meltdown of the housing and financial markets, is one of the voices bringing pressure to bear. Mr Schiff has become something of a celebrity in the US in recent months in the wake of a number of interviews he gave to CNBC and Fox News in 2006-7.

Full article here

Read more…

GLENN BECK.... REVOLUTIONARY!

I am all for responsible reporting on the public airwaves! Those that use the airwaves to deliberately and repeatedly use fabrications that are not true, are dangerous to the public safety and to the constitution that is supposed to guarantee our rights of free speech. Americans have free speech rights, … but not the freedom to shout “FIRE!” when their is no fire, inside a crowded theatre!

The irresponsable reporting by the likes of “Glenn Beck” creates a “mob” mentality! A mob mentality that can and will (according to history) incite to violence, those that are portrayed as different from that of the mob!

Let’s face it! There are those in america that are looking forward to inciting a “RACE WAR,” and are using the public air waves and the fact of a black president to incite mobs to act violently against the government of the USA!

You have to be blind to not recognize the conservative movement direction toward insurection of a pluralistic and multi-cultural america and instituting in it’s place what existed in our racist fundamentalist bigoted past!

All of this backward movement toward our unenlightened past is being done in the name of fighting “COMMUNISM!

The housing bubble began in 1995. This means that the housing crisis will last for almost another decade.

The housing bubble began in 1995.

This means that the housing crisis will last for almost another decade.

Pundits, politicians, journalists and Nobel prize winners have all been looking at various political explanations of the housing bubble. For years, they said the bubble didn’t exist at all, but late in 2007 when it clearly was leaking, they blamed it on Alan Greenspan or George Bush, using some tortured logic.

Almost none of the mainstream analysts and economists even admitted that there was a real estate bubble until 2006 or so, when Nouriel Roubini discovered the bubble and announced it to the world. By that time, it was already pretty clear that it had begun to leak.

I started writing about the real estate bubble in 2004, but I too thought at that time that it was caused by the low near-zero interest rates that Alan Greenspan and the Fed had put into effect. I later rejected that view, as I came to understand that the bubble occurred in countries around the world.

I’ve just become aware of a 2002 research report by Dean Baker of the Washington-based Center for Economic Policy and Research. This paper shows clearly that the real estate bubble began in 1995, the same time as the dot-com bubble.

Baker shows this in several ways, but the following graph shows it most clearly:

Cost of owning real estate versus renting, 1975-2002 (Source: Dean Baker)

This graph compares real estate prices with rental prices. As you can see, the two graphs began diverging significantly in 1995, with cost of ownership surging.

This REALLY makes a lot of sense, because it corresponds exactly to the start of the dot-com bubble. Furthermore, although the real estate bubble didn’t START in 2003, it really skyrocketed starting in 2003, and that also corresponds to the huge credit bubble.

Let’s take another look at this chart, that I first posted in 2007:

Generational ‘moods’ overlaying Dow Industrials since 1950 Related Articles

Generation-X

The housing bubble began in 1995.: This means that the housing crisis will last for almost another decade…. (8-Sep-2009)

Laughable SEC report on Madoff absolves SEC management of blame: “Confusion” and “inexperience” of young SEC staff members are blamed…. (6-Sep-2009)

Stories of massive generational fraud and corruption continue to pour out: Long-time readers of this web site know how much my life… (14-Apr-2009)

The economy, the stimulus plan and the budget plan all continue to unravel: Markets keep falling as world economic trends continue to plunge…. (2-Mar-2009)

Neil Howe calls Early Gen-Xers the “dumbest generation”: I disagree – Boomers are the dumbest generation…. (10-Dec-2008)

‘Liberation Hero’ Robert Mugabe now destroys Zimbabwe with cholera: Adding to his record of mass torture, slaughter and economic destruction,… (8-Dec-2008)

A generational view of China’s growing melamine food disaster: On Thursday, the FDA issued a nationwide alert, banning Chinese dairy products… (17-Nov-2008)

How Boomers and Generation-Xers brought about the dumbing down of Information Technology (IT) : Software development has adopted a Java cookbook approach that leads to project failures. Also: How Digimarc Corp. self-destructed with management’s cookbook programming mentality. (1-Jul-2008)

Questions for readers: Managing Boomers vs Generation-X in the workplace.: Also an ethics question: When do you tell the boss that the project is crashing and burning?… (5-Jun-2008)

Teen “emo subculture” creating violent fault line in Mexico City: The depressive ‘emotive’ music style is also being blamed for suicides in Europe…. (25-May-2008)

Software development projects for Moody’s, Digimarc, Y2K, DEC further illuminate Gen-X nihilism: As Boomers and Gen-Xers have taken charge, software development standards have suffered…. (23-May-2008)

China and Taiwan: Understanding two different war paradigms: None of Obama, Clinton or McCain have any idea of this…. (23-Apr-08)

NY Governor Elliot Spitzer: A Generation-Xer gets his comeuppance: Rarely has someone’s fall from grace been met with so much glee…. (12-Mar-08)

Reader comments on the Nihilism of Generation-X: Who’s more at fault for our problems – Gen-Xers or Boomers?… (29-Jan-08)

The nihilism and self-destructiveness of Generation X: Who’s more to blame for our troubles: The Boomer generation or Generation X?… (21-Jan-08)

Markets fall as investors are increasingly unsettled by bad economic news: Hopes for quick return to “normal” bubble growth are fading…. (21-Nov-07)

I described this chart in detail in the above-mentioned article, but here I only wish to relate this chart to this new information about the real estate bubble.

The point of inflection that occurred in 1995, the time when all the Great Depression survivors disappeared (retired or died), and Boomers rose to senior management positions. At this time, the cautious investment strategies of the risk-averse Depression survivors were replaced by the reckless investment strategies of the Boomers. We now know that the real estate bubble began at the same time of generational change.

Then, in 2003, the credit bubble exploded, and so did the real estate bubble.

This really ties things together from the point of view of Generational Dynamics. It’s always bothered me a little that the real estate bubble apparently began in 2003, but now with the real estate bubble starting in 1995, along with the dot-com bubble, everything fits together.

Now, there’s a little more to this story.

I found my way to the 2002 paper on the housing bubble through a blog entry by its author, Dean Baker. Baker was commenting on a NY Times article that congratulated President Obama, Timothy Geithner, Lawrence Summers, Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson because “the financial crisis of 2008 turned out to be far less bad than it could have been.”

Here are some excerpts:

“What If the Captain of the Titanic Managed to Get Three Quarters of the Passengers on Life Boats?David Leonhardt wants to congratulate the gang that led us into the worse economic downturn in more than 70 years because it will not be as bad as the Great Depression. Yes, the downturn could be worse, but let’s be serious.

This crash was 100 percent preventable to anyone watching the economy and capable of doing 3rd grade arithmetic. The housing bubble was easy to see and it should have been obvious that its collapse would devastate the economy. …

This is a complete disaster. Any custodian, dishwasher or shoe salesperson who showed the same degree of incompetence on their job would be fired instantly. There is no reason that the country should engage in this soft bigotry of low expectations when it comes to economic policy. This crew blew it just about as badly as anyone conceivably could. Saying that you didn’t give us another great depression is not exactly a winning re-election slogan.”

This is what drives me crazy. Here’s a guy from a Washington DC economic think tank. He’s done the research. He’s established that the real estate bubble is correlated to the technology bubble. He offers no opinion at all as to what happened in 1995 to cause both bubbles to start growing; indeed, he has no idea why the bubbles occurred at all, and why they began in 1995, as opposed to 1985 or 2005. He doesn’t even pretend to have the answers to these questions.

And yet, even though he has no idea about how the bubble started, he’s ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN he knows all the answers about how to keep the bubble from crashing. He says, “This crash was 100 percent preventable to anyone watching the economy and capable of doing 3rd grade arithmetic. The housing bubble was easy to see and it should have been obvious that its collapse would devastate the economy.”

Well how the hell was the crash preventable? Perhaps he thinks that Congress could have passed a law making it illegal for bubbles to crash. What more could President Obama, Timothy Geithner, Lawrence Summers, Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson have done beyond what they did do — flood the economy with trillions of dollars worth of bailouts, stimulus and quantitative easing?

In fact, now that we know that the housing bubble began in 1995, we can draw some further conclusions: Since the bubble started leaking in 2006, it lasted for 11 years, and so we can apply the Law of Mean Reversion and, assuming that it leaks at roughly the same rate that it grew in the first place, the housing crisis will last 11 years, until 2017.

The credit and real estate bubbles were hundreds of trillions of dollars in size, and growing. To say that the crash was preventable is typical of the nonsense produced by economists today.

Speaking of economists who produce lots of nonsense, Nobel prize winning economist Paul Krugman has just written a lengthy article titled, “How Did Economists Get It So Wrong?” Krugman won the Nobel Prize because he met the prize committee’s major criterion: Hatred of George Bush. In his columns, he’s pretty much given up any pretense of economics, since each conclusion he reaches is based on ideological considerations. One of the major reasons that economists got it so wrong is that they interpret everything through an ideological filter. Krugman’s new article might be called an ideological history of economics of the 20th century. Pathetic.

At any rate, now that we know that the housing bubble began in 1995, we know that it couldn’t have been caused by George Bush or Ben Bernanke. It also wasn’t caused by Alan Greenspan’s near-zero interest rate policy, since that began in 2002. Ideologues on the right might try to blame it on President Bill Clinton, but that’s silly as well. The real estate and dot-com technology bubbles were caused by the disappearance of the risk-averse Great Depression survivors from senior management positions in the early 1990s, and the dumb investments made by Boomers when they reached those senior management positions.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Financial Topics thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Read the entire thread for discussions on how to protect your money.) (8-Sep-2009)